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Fromlet, Hubert
Publications (10 of 28) Show all publications
Fromlet, H. (2017). China's New Economic Policy: Changing Analytical Conditions for Financial Markets and Corporations. Economic and Financial Review, 24(1), 3-48
Open this publication in new window or tab >>China's New Economic Policy: Changing Analytical Conditions for Financial Markets and Corporations
2017 (English)In: Economic and Financial Review, ISSN 1351-3621, Vol. 24, no 1, p. 3-48Article in journal, Editorial material (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

China is now undergoing changes, often backed up by well-known Western research. The author attempts to find modified or new analytical factors which corporations should focus on.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
European Economics & Financial Centre, 2017
Keyword
China, Economic policy, Reforms, Corporate strategy
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-64515 (URN)
Available from: 2017-05-30 Created: 2017-05-30 Last updated: 2017-06-30Bibliographically approved
Fromlet, H. (2016). Kinas nya ekonomiska politik: hur kan den integreras i en modern landanalys?. Ekonomisk Debatt, 44(5), 12-22
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Kinas nya ekonomiska politik: hur kan den integreras i en modern landanalys?
2016 (Swedish)In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 44, no 5, p. 12-22Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [sv]

Kina befinner sig för närvarande i en långtgående ekonomisk och social omdaningsprocess. Många strukturella förändringar är på väg – åtminstone om de politiska makthavarnas planer ungefärligen kan genomföras under de kommande åren. Den uppnådda och kvantitativa BNP-tillväxten har styrt många Kina-analyser. Framöver måste kineserna dock lägga mer fokus på bättre kvalitet i tillväxten. En sådan förändringsprocess kräver bl a förbättringar avseende teknologi, produktivitet och miljö – och detta i en omvärld, där marknadsekonomin tänks spela en ”avgörande roll” (Third Plenum 2013, kap I, 2, s 1). Av dessa nya trender följer att forskare, företag och finansmarknadsanalytiker i sin tur måste modernisera analysen av Kina på både makro- och mikronivå.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2016
Keyword
Kina, landanalys, företag
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-56539 (URN)
Available from: 2016-09-16 Created: 2016-09-16 Last updated: 2017-11-27Bibliographically approved
Fischer, D. & Fromlet, H. (2015). China's strive for quality of growth and growth data: challenges for economic analyses and the European/global corporate sector. In: Paper presented at the 17th Annual Conference on European Integration - Swedish Network for European Studies in Economics and Business (SNEE), Mölle, Sweden, May 19-22, 2015: . Paper presented at 17th Annual Conference on European Integration - Swedish Network for European Studies in Economics and Business (SNEE), Mölle, Sweden, May 19-22, 2015.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>China's strive for quality of growth and growth data: challenges for economic analyses and the European/global corporate sector
2015 (English)In: Paper presented at the 17th Annual Conference on European Integration - Swedish Network for European Studies in Economics and Business (SNEE), Mölle, Sweden, May 19-22, 2015, 2015Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Economists – particularly foreign financial analysts, also in Europe – focus mainly on the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) and quarterly GDP changes when analyzing Chinese growth. This is understandable since these data are easily available. More recently these data did not produce an optimistic picture for China’s economy. But does this information really provide reliable information on China’s growth performance and outlook? Does this analytical approach capture the strategy and policy changes announced during the Third Plenum in November 2013?

Certainly not. Consequently, foreign and even domestic investors run the risk that portfolio and particularly more long-term investments are too heavily based on short-term indicators that do not reflect ongoing structural improvement measures or policy changes.

The paper will summarize past and current discussion on Chinese GDP data and deal with the alternatives for assessing economic growth and its quality. Merely relying on an improved and widened analysis of Chinese reform policy since November 2013 is difficult and has its limits. But better analysis can be created by economists themselves even under current conditions. Transparency is still by far too poor. Improvements should not be that difficult to achieve all the same. Some ideas are given in this paper – and also hints how and where to find information on structural improvements that have taken place or are planned concretely for the nearer future.

Better insight into Chinese reform policy and underlying GDP-growth conditions could give a sounder input for decision-making by domestic, European and global investors, Swedish and German companies included. The ambition of the paper is to contribute to a move from too much short-term to more medium- and long-term analysis of China’s development - an approach that should be promising also from a European corporate perspective.

Keyword
China, Chinese statistics, Quality of growth, China's reforms and foreign corpoarations
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-45153 (URN)
Conference
17th Annual Conference on European Integration - Swedish Network for European Studies in Economics and Business (SNEE), Mölle, Sweden, May 19-22, 2015
Projects
SNEE conference / European Integration in Swedish Economic Research
Available from: 2015-06-27 Created: 2015-06-27 Last updated: 2016-04-11Bibliographically approved
Fromlet, H. (2014). Avregleringar på finansmarknaden: kan Kina lära sig något av det svenska exemplet?. Ekonomisk Debatt, 42(3), 72-82
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Avregleringar på finansmarknaden: kan Kina lära sig något av det svenska exemplet?
2014 (Swedish)In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 42, no 3, p. 72-82Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [sv]

Avregleringar på finansmarknaden utgör en väsentlig del av Kinas påbörjade, omfattande reformprogram efter det s k Tredje Plenumet i november 2013. I artikeln undersöks i vad mån Kina kan dra nytta av en del negativa erfarenheter från den svenska finansiella avregleringsprocessen.

Keyword
Kina, finansiella avregleringar (allmänt), Sveriges finansiella avregleringar
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-37755 (URN)
Available from: 2014-10-20 Created: 2014-10-20 Last updated: 2017-12-05Bibliographically approved
Fromlet, H. (2014). The Chinese reform process in a European perspective. Revue Bancaire et Financière, 78(4), 311-323
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Chinese reform process in a European perspective
2014 (English)In: Revue Bancaire et Financière, ISSN 1376-7720, Vol. 78, no 4, p. 311-323Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

There is every reason for Europe, the U.S. and many other countries, organizations, and corporations to optimize to optimize their co-operation with China in line with with its necessary and implemented reforms - and to consider all the conflicts of goals that are part of the far-reaching Chinese reform program. Major Chinese reform disappointments would be scary since the European and Anerican economies would not be prepared for such a reversal. This is a mostly forgotten risk.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Larcier, 2014
Keyword
China, Asia, Europe, Economic reforms, Financial deregulation, Sequencing, Financial crisis
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-37753 (URN)
Available from: 2014-10-20 Created: 2014-10-20 Last updated: 2014-11-11Bibliographically approved
Fromlet, H. (2013). The Chinese Government Debt: What do we Know and What should be Done?. Finance India. The Quarterly Journal of Indian Institute of Finance, 27(3), 761-775
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Chinese Government Debt: What do we Know and What should be Done?
2013 (English)In: Finance India. The Quarterly Journal of Indian Institute of Finance, ISSN 0970-3772, Vol. 27, no 3, p. 761-775Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Economy
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-31527 (URN)
Note

(Slightly revised compared to previous online article published by BOFIT with the same title (Bank of Finland) some months before

Available from: 2014-01-20 Created: 2014-01-20 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved
Fromlet, H. (2013). The Chinese Government Debt: What Do We Know and What Should be Done?. BOFIT Online (4), 18
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Chinese Government Debt: What Do We Know and What Should be Done?
2013 (English)In: BOFIT Online, ISSN 1456-811X, no 4, p. 18-Article in journal, Editorial material (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A review of the economic press and literature reveals that there is little research and analysis on the important issue of the Chinese governmental debt and budget deficits. This is astonishing since the Chinese economy has by now climbed to the second position in global GDP ranking. Thus, China’s government debt matters increasingly to the rest of the world as well, both in a corporate and a macroeconomic perspective.Furthermore, not enough is known about the real size of the total Chinese government debt. Insufficient statistical transparency is an important reason for this shortcoming, but this should not serve as an excuse. Increasing efforts are needed to provide China and the rest of the world with better information on the real state of Chinese government debt. In this paper, an attempt is made to explain and discuss the real situation when it comes to the Chinese government debt. The current Greek/Southern European debt misery clearly shows that opaque statistics cannot be hidden away forever without sooner or later puzzling and/or frightening the financial markets. On the other hand, China cannot be analyzed completely with Western eyes. The sooner Chinese decision-makers decide on greater transparency in the government debt situation, and decisive steps towards more efficient fiscal policy are taken, the better the consequences for China itself and the global economy. The alternative - continuous opaqueness and a possible future fiscal explosion - could certainly do a lot of harm to China, but also to the global economy. There is no reason to underestimate this medium and long-term risk. The short-term perspective looks safer.There should be room for a greater exchange of views and co-operation between EU and China, too. The EU’s own bad experience from the past few years could be a realistic starting point.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Helsinki: Suomen Pankki – Bank of Finland, 2013
Keyword
Government debt, China, Asia, Financial Risks
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-24734 (URN)
Available from: 2013-03-11 Created: 2013-03-11 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved
Fromlet, H. (2012). Predictability of financial crises: Lessons from Sweden for other countries. Business Economics, 47(4), 262-272
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Predictability of financial crises: Lessons from Sweden for other countries
2012 (English)In: Business Economics, ISSN 0007-666X, Vol. 47, no 4, p. 262-272Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The predictability of financial crises is widely regarded as low. However, skills linked to market psychology (behavioral finance) and the understanding of history and macrofinancial aggregates have been insufficiently integrated in the forecasting and risk management of financial institutions. Traditional financial modeling can no longer be applied as nicely as in the past. In Sweden, the financial crises of the early 1990s and in the latter part of the past decade were caused by overconfidence, control illusion, and herd mentality - but also by shortcomings in management and corporate governance. There is no evidence that these two serious Swedish banking crises were not foreseeable. The general question is when and under which circumstances financial decision-makers and authorities should listen to the usual minority of warning voices. One conclusion is that economists should be more in house-oriented, and top managers should heed their professional opinions. Conclusions from this paper can also be drawn for China, India, and other emerging markets both when it comes to financial deregulation policy and government debt risks in deregulated financial markets. © National Association for Business Economics.

Keyword
behavioral finance, financial crisis, forecasting, Sweden
National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-22937 (URN)10.1057/be.2012.28 (DOI)2-s2.0-84869158470 (Scopus ID)0007666X (ISSN) (ISBN)
Available from: 2012-12-18 Created: 2012-12-14 Last updated: 2013-01-29Bibliographically approved
Fromlet, H. (2011). Benefits for Asian and Global Investors from Improved Chinese Statistics. Finance India. The Quarterly Journal of Indian Institute of Finance, 25(4), 1189-1207
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Benefits for Asian and Global Investors from Improved Chinese Statistics
2011 (English)In: Finance India. The Quarterly Journal of Indian Institute of Finance, ISSN 0970-3772, Vol. 25, no 4, p. 1189-1207Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The quality of Chinese statistics is still lagging which can have an impact on the whole global economy...

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Finance India, 2011
Keyword
China, Asia, Statistics, Governance, Transparency, Financial Market
National Category
Social Sciences
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-23436 (URN)
Projects
no
Available from: 2013-01-14 Created: 2013-01-14 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved
Fromlet, H. (2011). The Chinese Economy - 20 Burdening Conflicts of Goals. Revue Bancaire et Financière, 75(5), 312-317
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Chinese Economy - 20 Burdening Conflicts of Goals
2011 (English)In: Revue Bancaire et Financière, ISSN 2033-7825, Vol. 75, no 5, p. 312-317Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

During 2010, China became the number two country in the world measured by total GDP (in PPP terms). However, China's extremely rapid growth has also had its price. This is expressed in the many economic imbalances - but also in a number of substantial of conflicts of goals for Chinese policymakers. Thus, one big question concerns the area that will dominate Chinese policy in shorter and longer perspective. The other big question is to what extent policy priorities can be achieved. Finally, one should raise the question whether the officially desired priorities contribute to a healthier trend in the Chinese economy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Brussels: Larcier, 2011
Keyword
China, Economic Policy
National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-16293 (URN)
Available from: 2011-12-21 Created: 2011-12-21 Last updated: 2014-05-08Bibliographically approved
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