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Describing and modelling the flow of the migration process with simple queueing systems.
Linnéuniversitetet, Fakulteten för teknik (FTK), Institutionen för matematik (MA). Migrationsverket.
2018 (engelsk)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 180 hpOppgave
Abstract [en]

 The aim of this thesis is to apply M/M/1 and M/M/2 queueing system models

to student and working visas applicants. From empirically observed arrival times and

departure times, the arrival and service intensities are estimated. It is obtained that

the estimated service intensities are essentially double for the M/M/1 queueing model

compared to the M/M/2 model. Hence, the estimated trac intensities, as they are

dened in this thesis, are almost the same here, and close to one. Furthermore, the

empirical distribution of the time in the system for the student visas seems to be

surprisingly well approximated by the theoretical ones obtained from the M/M/1 and

M/M/2 models.

The total time in the system for the two models are almost the same, while for

the M/M/2 model the service times are about the double of the service times of the

M/M/1 model which is compensated by shorter waiting times for the M/M/2 queue.

Therefore, there is a struggle in modelling between having a quicker service time with

less servers or a shorter waiting time period with more servers.

Modelling of the total time in the system, which is the important time for the

applicant and is as well the observed one, seems to be indierent to whether it is

M/M/1 modelling or M/M/2 modelling. That indierence is explained by the fact

that the estimated trac intensity is close to one.

A major consideration is that there is a \wall" eect of the data. The \wall" eect

arises from the ratio of the uncompleted and completed changes towards the end of

year 2017. In this thesis the \wall" eect is resolved by removing the last data.

2

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2018.
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-76540OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-76540DiVA, id: diva2:1229262
Eksternt samarbeid
Migrationsverket- Haidar Al Talibi
Veileder
Examiner
Tilgjengelig fra: 2018-07-02 Laget: 2018-06-29 Sist oppdatert: 2018-07-02bibliografisk kontrollert

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