lnu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Extreme weather affects colonization: extinction dynamics and the persistence of a threatened butterfly
Calluna AB, Sweden.
Calluna AB, Sweden.
Calluna AB, Sweden.
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science. (Ctr Ecol & Evolut Microbial Model Syst EEMiS)ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8022-5004
2020 (English)In: Journal of Applied Ecology, ISSN 0021-8901, E-ISSN 1365-2664Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Extreme weather events can be expected to increase in frequency in the future. Our knowledge on how this may affect species persistence is, however, very limited. For reliable projections of future persistence we need to understand how extreme weather affects species' population dynamics.We analysed the effect of extreme droughts on the host plant Succisa pratensis, colonization-extinction dynamics, and future persistence of the threatened marsh fritillary Euphydryas aurinia. Specifically, we studied a metapopulation inhabiting a network of 256 patches on Gotland (Sweden), where the summer of 2018 was the driest ever recorded. We analysed how the frequency and leaf size of host plants changed between 2017 and 2019, based on 6,833 records in 0.5-m(2) sample plots. Using turnover data on the butterfly from 2018 to 2019 we modelled local extinction and colonization probabilities. Moreover, we projected future population dynamics with an increasing frequency of extreme years under three different management strategies that regulate the grazing regime.Our results show a substantial decrease in both frequency (46%) and size (20%) of host plants due to the drought, which taken together may constitute a 57% loss of food resources. The butterfly occupancy decreased by over 30% between 2018 and 2019 (from 0.36 to 0.27). The extinction probability increased with increasing 'effective area' of the patch (taking quality reduction due to grazing into account), and the colonization probability increased with increasing connectivity and ground moisture.Projections of future dynamics showed an increasing risk of metapopulation extinction with increasing frequency of years with extreme droughts. The risk, however, clearly differed between management strategies. Less grazing in years with droughts decreased the extinction risk considerably.Synthesis and applications. Extreme weather events can have profound negative impacts on butterflies and their host plants. For the marsh fritillary, an increased frequency of extreme droughts can lead to extinction of the entire metapopulation, even in a large and seemingly viable metapopulation. Increased grazing, due to fodder deficiency in dry years, may lead to cascading negative effects, while active management that reduce grazing in years with droughts can almost completely mitigate these effects.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2020.
National Category
Ecology
Research subject
Natural Science, Ecology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-93263DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13611ISI: 000527032100001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-93263DiVA, id: diva2:1421654
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2018-02846
Note

Data are available via the Dryad Digital Repository https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.s1rn8pk4k (Johansson, Kindvall, Askling, & Franzén, 2020).

Available from: 2020-04-04 Created: 2020-04-04 Last updated: 2020-05-05

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full text

Authority records BETA

Franzén, Markus

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Franzén, Markus
By organisation
Department of Biology and Environmental Science
In the same journal
Journal of Applied Ecology
Ecology

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 3 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf