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Net-zero aviation: Transition barriers and radical climate policy design implications
Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Marketing and Tourism Studies (MTS). Western Norway Res Inst, Norway.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0505-9207
Munich Univ Appl Sci, Germany;Liverpool John Moores Univ, UK.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8663-3201
2024 (English)In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 912, article id 169107Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Sustainable development
SDG 12: Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
Abstract [en]

While air transport decarbonization is theoretically feasible, less attention has been paid to the complexity incurred in various 'transition barriers' that act as roadblocks to net-zero goals. A total of 40 barriers related to mitigation, management, technology and fuel transition, finance, and governance are identified. As these make decarbonization uncertain, the paper analyzes air transport system's growth, revenue, and profitability. Over the period 1978-2022, global aviation has generated marginal profits of US$20200.94 per passenger, or US$202082 billion in total. Low profitability makes it unlikely that the sector can finance the fuel transition cost, at US $0.5-2.1 trillion (Dray et al. 2022). Four radical policy scenarios for air transport futures are developed. All are characterized by "limitations", such as CO2 taxes, a carbon budget, alternative fuel obligations, or available capacity. Scenario runs suggest that all policy scenarios will more reliably lead to net-zero than the continued volume growth model pursued by airlines.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024. Vol. 912, article id 169107
Keywords [en]
Aviation, Climate change, Climate policy, Mitigation, Net -zero, Technology optimism
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Climate Research
Research subject
Tourism
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-127683DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169107ISI: 001152799200001PubMedID: 38104828Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85181139047OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-127683DiVA, id: diva2:1837616
Available from: 2024-02-14 Created: 2024-02-14 Last updated: 2024-02-14Bibliographically approved

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Gössling, Stefan

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