Background: Nowadays, expensive, error-prone, expert-based evaluations are needed to identify and assess software process anti-patterns. Process artifacts cannot be automatically used to quantitatively analyze and train prediction models without exact ground truth. Aim: Develop a replicable methodology for organizational learning from process (anti-)patterns, demonstrating the mining of reliable ground truth and exploitation of process artifacts. Method: We conduct an embedded case study to find manifestations of the Fire Drill anti-pattern in n = 15 projects. To ensure quality, three human experts agree. Their evaluation and the process’ artifacts are utilized to establish a quantitative understanding and train a prediction model. Results: Qualitative review shows many project issues. (i) Expert assessments consistently provide credible ground truth. (ii) Fire Drill phenomenological descriptions match project activity time (for example, development). (iii) Regression models trained on ≈ 12–25 examples are sufficiently stable. Conclusion: The approach is data source-independent (source code or issue-tracking). It allows leveraging process artifacts for establishing additional phenomenon knowledge and training robust predictive models. The results indicate the aptness of the methodology for the identification of the Fire Drill and similar anti-pattern instances modeled using activities. Such identification could be used in post mortem process analysis supporting organizational learning for improving processes.