lnu.sePublikationer
Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Sweden: 1750-2050
IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain-le-Neuve.
Institute for Future Studies. (CAFO)
(Kulturgeografiska institutionen, Stockholms universitet.
2009 (Engelska)Ingår i: Journal of macroeconomics, ISSN 0164-0704, E-ISSN 1873-152X, Vol. 31, nr 1, s. 132-148Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper addresses two issues. To what extent can models estimated on modern data be used to account for growth patterns in the past? Can information on historical patterns help to improve long-term forecasting of economic growth? We consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. The results indicate that the assumption of a common DGP can be warranted, at least back to 1870. Given the stability of the relationship between population and growth, we use the model to forecast income for the next 50 years. We compare our approach to a previous attempt to simulate the long-term Swedish growth path with an endogenous growth model. Encompassing tests show that each of the models contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2009. Vol. 31, nr 1, s. 132-148
Nationell ämneskategori
Nationalekonomi
Forskningsämne
Ekonomi, Nationalekonomi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-15989DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.08.014OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-15989DiVA, id: diva2:462629
Anmärkning

Ingår i Journal of macroeconomics Advances in Historical Macroeconomics Special Issue

Tillgänglig från: 2011-12-07 Skapad: 2011-12-07 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-12-08Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

Fulltext saknas i DiVA

Övriga länkar

Förlagets fulltext

Personposter BETA

Lindh, Thomas

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Lindh, Thomas
I samma tidskrift
Journal of macroeconomics
Nationalekonomi

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

doi
urn-nbn
Totalt: 155 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf