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Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management
Umeå University.
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
Umeå University.
Umeå University.
Vise andre og tillknytning
2015 (engelsk)Inngår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, nr Supplement 3, s. S345-S356Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 degrees C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase similar to 30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Springer, 2015. Vol. 44, nr Supplement 3, s. S345-S356
Emneord [en]
Climate change, Allochthonous organic matter, Primary production, Bacterial production, Food web, Monitoring
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Ekologi, Akvatisk ekologi; Miljövetenskap, Miljökemi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-45555DOI: 10.1007/s13280-015-0654-8ISI: 000362290800003PubMedID: 26022318Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84923050076OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-45555DiVA, id: diva2:843069
Prosjekter
EcoChange
Forskningsfinansiär
Swedish Research Council FormasEcosystem dynamics in the Baltic Sea in a changing climate perspective - ECOCHANGETilgjengelig fra: 2015-07-25 Laget: 2015-07-25 Sist oppdatert: 2018-05-16bibliografisk kontrollert

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Legrand, CatherineLindehoff, Elin

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