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Impacts of global climate change mitigation scenarios on forests and harvesting in Sweden
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
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2016 (English)In: Canadian Journal of Forest Research, ISSN 0045-5067, E-ISSN 1208-6037, Vol. 46, no 12, 1427-1438 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Under climate change, the importance of biomass resources is likely to increase and new approaches are needed to analyze future material and energy use of biomass globally and locally. Using Sweden as an example, we present an approach that combines global and national land-use and forest models to analyze impacts of climate change mitigation ambitions on forest management and harvesting in a specific country. National forest impact analyses in Sweden have traditionally focused on supply potential with little reference to international market developments. In this study, we use the global greenhouse gas concentration scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change to estimate global biomass demand and assess potential implications on harvesting and biodiversity in Sweden. The results show that the short-term demand for wood is close to the full harvesting potential in Sweden in all scenarios. Under high bioenergy demand, harvest levels are projected to stay high over a longer time and particularly impact the harvest levels of pulpwood. The area of old forest in the managed landscape may decrease. This study highlights the importance of global scenarios when discussing national-level analysis and pinpoints trade-offs that policy making in Sweden may need to tackle in the near future.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 46, no 12, 1427-1438 p.
Keyword [en]
forest impact analysis, forest product demand, scenario analysis, Swedish National Forest Inventory (NFI), wood supply potential
National Category
Forest Science
Research subject
Technology (byts ev till Engineering), Forestry and Wood Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-59003DOI: 10.1139/cjfr-2016-0122ISI: 000388094000003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-59003DiVA: diva2:1056550
Available from: 2016-12-15 Created: 2016-12-14 Last updated: 2016-12-15Bibliographically approved

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Bergh, Johan
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Department of Forestry and Wood Technology
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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf