lnu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
An importance sampling technique for probabilistic security assessment in power systems with large amounts of wind power
Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway.
Lund University. (Waves signals and systems)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3111-4820
KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
2016 (English)In: Electric power systems research, ISSN 0378-7796, E-ISSN 1873-2046, Vol. 131, 11-18 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Larger amounts of variable renewable energy sources bring about larger amounts of uncertainty in the form of forecast errors. When taking operational and planning decisions under uncertainty, a trade-off between risk and costs must be made. Today's deterministic operational tools, such as N-1-based methods, cannot directly account for the underlying risk due to uncertainties. Instead, several definitions of operating risks, which are probabilistic indicators, have been proposed in the literature. Estimating these risks require estimating very low probabilities of violations of operating constraints. Crude Monte-Carlo simulations are very computationally demanding for estimating very low probabilities. In this paper, an importance sampling technique from mathematical finance is adapted to estimate very low operating risks in power systems given probabilistic forecasts for the wind power and the load. Case studies in the IEEE 39 and 118 bus systems show a decrease in computational demand of two to three orders of magnitude.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 131, 11-18 p.
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Physics, Electrotechnology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-61545DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2015.09.016ISI: 000367126900002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-61545DiVA: diva2:1083505
Available from: 2017-03-21 Created: 2017-03-21 Last updated: 2017-03-22Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Perninge, Magnus
In the same journal
Electric power systems research
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

Altmetric score

Total: 2 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf