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Multifactorial 10-Year Prior Diagnosis Prediction Model of Dementia
Blekinge institute of technology, Sweden.
Univ Birmingham, UK.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2639-0671
Blekinge institute of technology, Sweden.
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Psychology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6532-3877
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2020 (English)In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 17, no 18, p. 1-18, article id 6674Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Dementia is a neurodegenerative disorder that affects the older adult population. To date, no cure or treatment to change its course is available. Since changes in the brains of affected individuals could be evidenced as early as 10 years before the onset of symptoms, prognosis research should consider this time frame. This study investigates a broad decision tree multifactorial approach for the prediction of dementia, considering 75 variables regarding demographic, social, lifestyle, medical history, biochemical tests, physical examination, psychological assessment and health instruments. Previous work on dementia prognoses with machine learning did not consider a broad range of factors in a large time frame. The proposed approach investigated predictive factors for dementia and possible prognostic subgroups. This study used data from the ongoing multipurpose Swedish National Study on Aging and Care, consisting of 726 subjects (91 presented dementia diagnosis in 10 years). The proposed approach achieved an AUC of 0.745 and Recall of 0.722 for the 10-year prognosis of dementia. Most of the variables selected by the tree are related to modifiable risk factors; physical strength was important across all ages. Also, there was a lack of variables related to health instruments routinely used for the dementia diagnosis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2020. Vol. 17, no 18, p. 1-18, article id 6674
Keywords [en]
dementia, prognosis, modifiable risk factors, decision tree, cost sensitive learning, wrapper feature selection, machine learning
National Category
Psychology
Research subject
Social Sciences, Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-98822DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17186674ISI: 000579987200001PubMedID: 32937765Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85090858921OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-98822DiVA, id: diva2:1500252
Available from: 2020-11-11 Created: 2020-11-11 Last updated: 2021-05-06Bibliographically approved

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Rennemark, Mikael

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Minku, LeandroRennemark, MikaelAnderberg, PeterSanmartin Berglund, Johan
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