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Essays on statistical testing using Wavelet methodologies
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis consists of five essays on the application of wavelet methodology to different tests in time series analysis. Essay I proposes a nonlinear Dickey-Fuller F test for unit roots against the first order Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive LSTAR (1) model. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is analytically derived while the size and power properties for small samples of the tests are investigated using Monte Carlo experiments. The results show that there is a serious size distortion for the test when Autoregressive Conditional Heterskedasticity (GARCH) errors appear in the Data Generating Process (DGP). To solve this problem, we use the wavelet technique to filter out the GARCH distortion and to improve the size property of the test under GARCH error. We also discuss the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics in GARCH and wavelet environments. Essay II uses the wavelet technique to improve the over-rejection problem of the traditional linear Dickey-Fuller tests for unit root when the data is associated with volatility such as a GARCH (1, 1) effect. We prove that the asymptotic distribution of the test in the wavelet environment is still the same as the traditional Dickey-Fuller type of test. The finite sample property is improved when the data suffers from GARCH error. An empirical example is illustrated with data on the net immigration to Sweden during the period 1950 to 2000. Essay III applies the wavelet ratio statistic to the Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS) type of test and compares it with the IPS test by using Dickey-Fuller t statistic. Simulation results show again in power by employing the wavelet ratio test instead of the Dickey-Fuller t statistic in the panel data case. As the IPS test is sensitive to the cross sectional dependence, we further compare the robustness of both test statistics to the cross sectional. Finally we apply a residual based waves trapping methodology to reduce the over biased size problem brought up by the cross correlation for both test statistics. Essay IV uses simulated data to investigate the power of different causality tests in a two dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The data are presented in a non-linearenvironment that is modelled using a logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR)function. We use both linear and non-linear causality tests to investigate the uni-direction causality relationship and compare the power of these tests. When implementing the nonlinear test, we use separately the original data, the linear VAR filtered residuals, and the wavelet decomposed series based on wavelet multi resolution analysis (MRA). The simulation results show that the non-parametric test based on the wavelet decomposition series (which is a model free approach) has the highest power for exploring causality relationships in nonlinear models. Essay V first presents a power controlled turning points detecting method based on the theory of likelihood ratio test in statistical surveillance. Next we show how the outlier will influence the performance of this methodology. Due to the sensitivity of the surveillance system to the outliers, we finally present a wavelet multi resolution (MRA) based outlier elimination approach, which can be combined with the on-line turning point detecting process and will also alleviate the false alarm problem introduced by the outliers.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linnaeus University Press, 2011. , p. 20
Series
Linnaeus University Dissertations ; 42
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-110336Libris ID: 12162864ISBN: 9789186491703 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-110336DiVA, id: diva2:1637447
Public defence
2011-06-01, Weber, Hus K, Växjö, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2022-02-14 Created: 2022-02-14 Last updated: 2024-11-21Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Testing for Unit Root Against LSTAR Models: Wavelet Improvement under GARCH Distortion
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Testing for Unit Root Against LSTAR Models: Wavelet Improvement under GARCH Distortion
2010 (English)In: Communications in statistics. Simulation and computation, ISSN 0361-0918, E-ISSN 1532-4141, Vol. 39, no 2, p. 277-286Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this article, we propose a nonlinear Dickey-Fuller F test for unit root against first-order Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) (1) model with time as the transition variable. The nonlinear Dickey-Fuller F test statistic is established under the null hypothesis of random walk without drift and the alternative model is a nonlinear LSTAR (1) model. The asymptotic distribution of the test is analytically derived while the small sample distributions are investigated by Monte Carlo experiment. The size and power properties of the test were investigated using Monte Carlo experiment. The results showed that there is a serious size distortion for the test when GARCH errors appear in the Data Generating Process (DGP), which led to an over-rejection of the unit root null hypothesis. To solve this problem, we use the Wavelet technique to count off the GARCH distortion and improve the size property of the test under GARCH error. We also discuss the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics in GARCH and wavelet environments.

Keywords
Dickey-Fuller F test, GARCH(1, 1), MODWT, STAR model, Unit root test, Wavelet method
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Statistics/Econometrics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-9177 (URN)10.1080/03610910903443964 (DOI)000274979200004 ()2-s2.0-77951075208 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2010-10-27 Created: 2010-10-27 Last updated: 2022-07-14Bibliographically approved
2. Wavelet Improvement of the Over-rejection of Unit root test under GARCH errors: An Application to Swedish Immigration Data
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Wavelet Improvement of the Over-rejection of Unit root test under GARCH errors: An Application to Swedish Immigration Data
2011 (English)In: Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, ISSN 0361-0926, E-ISSN 1532-415X, Vol. 40, no 13, p. 2385-2396Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-16189 (URN)10.1080/03610926.2010.481371 (DOI)000289834100011 ()2-s2.0-79956158057 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2011-12-16 Created: 2011-12-16 Last updated: 2022-07-13Bibliographically approved
3. Linear and Nonlinear Causality Test in LSTAR Models: Wavelet Decomposition in Nonlinear Environment
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Linear and Nonlinear Causality Test in LSTAR Models: Wavelet Decomposition in Nonlinear Environment
2011 (English)In: Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, ISSN 0094-9655, E-ISSN 1563-5163, Vol. 81, no 12, p. 1913-1925Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-16193 (URN)10.1080/00949655.2010.508163 (DOI)000299727100010 ()2-s2.0-84863266848 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2011-12-16 Created: 2011-12-16 Last updated: 2022-07-13Bibliographically approved
4. Testing for unit roots in panel data using a wavelet ratio method
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Testing for unit roots in panel data using a wavelet ratio method
2013 (English)In: Computational Economics, ISSN 0927-7099, E-ISSN 1572-9974, Vol. 41, no 1, p. 59-69Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

For testing unit root in single time series, most of the tests concentrate in the time domain. Recently, Fan and Gracay (2010) proposed a wavelet ratio test which took advantage of the information from frequency domain by using wavelet spectrum decompose methodology. This test shows a better power over many time domain based unit root test including the Dickey-Fuller (1979) type of test in the univariate time series case. On the other hand, various unit root tests in multivariate time series appear since the pioneering work of Levin and Lin (1993). Among them, the Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS) (1997) test is widely used for its straightforward implementation and robustness to heterogeneity. The IPS test is a group mean test which uses the average of the test statistics for each single series. As the test statistics in each series can be flexible, this paper will apply the wavelet ratio statistic to give a comparison with the test by using Dickey-Fuller  statistic in the single series. Simulation result shows a gain in power by employing the wavelet ratio test instead of the Dickey-Fuller  statistic in the panel data case. As the IPS test is sensitive to the cross sectional dependence, we further compare the robustness of both test statistics to the cross sectional. Finally we apply a residual based wavestrapping methodology to reduce the over biased size problem brought up by the cross correlation for both test statistics. 

Keywords
Wavelet, panel data, unit root, cross sectional dependence, wavestrapping
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-16200 (URN)10.1007/s10614-011-9302-y (DOI)000313645200004 ()2-s2.0-84872608330 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2011-12-16 Created: 2011-12-16 Last updated: 2022-02-14Bibliographically approved

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