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To Detrend, or Not to Detrend, That Is the Question?: The Effects of Detrending on Cross-Lagged Effects in Panel Models
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Psychology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2486-6859
Weill Cornell Med, USA.
Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Germany.
2023 (English)In: Psychological methods, ISSN 1082-989X, E-ISSN 1939-1463Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Intervention studies in psychology often focus on identifying mechanisms that explain change over time. Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are well suited to study mechanisms, but there is a controversy regarding the importance of detrending-defined here as separating longer-term time trends from cross-lagged effects-when modeling these change processes. The aim of this study was to present and test the arguments for and against detrending CLPMs in the presence of an intervention effect. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to examine the impact of trends on estimates of cross-lagged effects from several longitudinal structural equation models. Our simulations suggested that ignoring time trends led to biased estimates of auto- and cross-lagged effects in some conditions, while detrending did not introduce bias in any of the models. We used real data from an intervention study to illustrate how detrending may affect results. This example showed that models that separated trends from cross-lagged effects fit better to the data and showed nonsignificant effect of the mechanism on outcome, while models that ignored trends showed significant effects. We conclude that ignoring trends increases the risk of bias in estimates of auto- and cross-lagged parameters and may lead to spurious findings. Researchers can test for the presence of trends by comparing model fit of models that take into account individual differences in trends (e.g., autoregressive latent trajectory model, the latent curve model with structured residuals, or the general cross-lagged model).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Psychological Association (APA), 2023.
Keywords [en]
cross-lagged panel model, detrending, time trends, intervention study
National Category
Applied Psychology
Research subject
Social Sciences, Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-126290DOI: 10.1037/met0000632ISI: 001127022700001PubMedID: 38095988Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85183442674OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-126290DiVA, id: diva2:1825454
Available from: 2024-01-09 Created: 2024-01-09 Last updated: 2024-08-22

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Falkenström, Fredrik

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