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Nonlinear forecasting with many predictors using mixed data sampling kernel ridge regression models
Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Economics and Statistics (NS).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0789-5826
Lund University, Sweden.
Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Economics and Statistics (NS).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3623-5034
Jönköping University, Sweden.
2025 (English)In: Annals of Operations Research, ISSN 0254-5330, E-ISSN 1572-9338Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Policy institutes such as central banks need accurate forecasts of key measures of economic activity to design stabilization policies that reduce the severity of economic fluctuations. Therefore, this paper develops a kernel ridge regression estimator in a mixed data sampling framework. Kernel ridge regression can handle many predictors with a nonlinear relationship to the target variable. Consequently, it has potential to improve the currently used principal component-based methods when the economic data follow a nonlinear factor structure. In a Monte Carlo study, we show that the kernel ridge regression approach is superior in terms of mean square error and is more robust than principal component-based methods to different nonlinear data generating processes. By using a dataset consisting of 24 economic indicators, we forecast Swedish gross domestic production. The results confirm the superiority of the kernel ridge regression approach. Therefore, we suggest that policy institutes consider the use of kernel-based approaches when forecasting key measures of economic activity.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2025.
Keywords [en]
Big data, Kernel ridge regression, MIDAS, Forecasting
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Statistics/Econometrics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-135643DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06486-yISI: 001401857400001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85217421712OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-135643DiVA, id: diva2:1932929
Funder
Torsten Söderbergs stiftelse, E36/22Available from: 2025-01-30 Created: 2025-01-30 Last updated: 2025-05-14

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Dai, DeliangKarlsson, Peter S.

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
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Language
  • de-DE
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  • en-US
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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