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Managerial foresight: concept and measurement
Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Marknadsföring.
2008 (English)In: Foresight, ISSN 1463-6689, E-ISSN 1465-9832, Vol. 10, no 1, p. 53-66Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish what foresight is, to review past usages and

definitions of foresight and to synthesize them into one generic definition, in order to make the concept

measurable.

Design/methodology/approach – A discussion on how to classify variables in the social sciences

serves as the starting-point. Next, a review of past definitions and usages of the concept foresight is

followed by further analysis and then synthesizing of the generic definition. The generic definition is

finally compared and contrasted with the related concepts of forecasting, strategic analysis, and

intuition.

Findings – Foresight is defined as behavior along three dimensions: degree of analyzing present

contingencies and degree of moving the analysis of present contingencies across time; degree of

analyzing a desired future state or states a degree ahead in time with regard to contingencies under

control; and degree of analyzing courses of action a degree ahead in time to arrive at the desired future

state.

Research limitations/implications – The article makes foresight quantitatively measurable, which in

turn makes it possible to empirically measure the existence of foresight among managers and to test the

relationship between foresight and organizational performance.

Practical implications – Practical foresight tools and programs, etc. can now be assessed and

compared by both practitioners and researchers.

Originality/value – In identifying three fundamental behavioral dimensions of foresight, the article

conceives and advances foresight as a distinct concept that can be related to several research areas,

both on individual (e.g. managerial) and organizational levels.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Emerald , 2008. Vol. 10, no 1, p. 53-66
Keyword [en]
Behaviour, Forward planning, Managers, Organizational behaviour
National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Economy, Marketing
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vxu:diva-3399DOI: 10.1108/14636680810856026OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vxu-3399DiVA, id: diva2:203355
Available from: 2008-05-06 Created: 2008-05-06 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Managerial foresight and firm performance
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Managerial foresight and firm performance
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Purpose – To specify what defines managerial foresight and to assess the association between managerial foresight and firm performance

Methodology/Approach – First, previous research was reviewed and foresight was defined. Second, an instrument for measuring managerial foresight was developed. Third, an empirical case served as an illustration and as anassessment of validity. Fourth, managerial foresight was tested for association with firm performance.

Findings – Foresight was specified as behavior with eight sub-components. A moderate and statistically significant positive relationship between managers’ foresight and firm performance was found.

Research implications – The empirical evidence for the importance of managerial foresight provides a strong rationale for further studies. In distinguishing eight sub-components of foresight, and developing a managerial foresight measurement instrument, the dissertation makes relating foresight to various research fields possible, both on individual managerial andorganizational levels.

Practical implications – Managers may consider whether foresight is important to them or to their organization. Managers, practical foresight tools, foresight programs et cetera, may now be assessed and compared in terms of foresight.

Originality/Value – The dissertation provides empirical evidence of the importance of managerial foresight to firm performance. It conceives and advances foresight as a distinct construct. In developing and estimating aninstrument for measuring managerial foresight, the dissertation advancesforesight into a quantitatively measurable concept.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Växjö, Kalmar: Linnaeus University Press, 2011. p. 198
Series
Linnaeus University Dissertations ; No 36/2011
National Category
Business Administration
Research subject
Economy, Business administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-10935 (URN)978-91-86491-64-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2011-02-25, Weber, Hus K, Linneuniversitetet, Växjö, 14:07 (Swedish)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2011-02-28 Created: 2011-02-24 Last updated: 2014-03-27Bibliographically approved

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Amsteus, Martin

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