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What do population viability analyses tell about the future for Baltic Dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii and Montagu’s Harrier Circus pygargus on Öland?
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6398-1617
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
County Administrative Board of Kalmar.
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
2010 (English)In: Ornis Svecica, ISSN 1102-6812, Vol. 20, 93-102 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Population viability analysis (PVA) has become an important tool in conservation biology. Even though detailed outcomes of PVA:s are constrained by data quality, it is a useful approach when the objective is exploratory, aiming to identify important parameters for viability or to guide future field work on endangered species. In this study we perform PVA:s based on scarce data to explore viability of two endangered bird species, Baltic Dunlin and Montagu’s Harrier, on Öland. Our simulation results underline that both species are under severe threats, with a median time to extinction of 24 years in Baltic Dunlin and 63 years in Montagu’s Harrier. Sensitivity analyses show that population growth rate is the most important factor for the model outcome in both species. Since there are no apparent threats for adult birds on Öland, this suggests that conservation measures should focus on improving conditions for successful breeding on the island. In additional simulations we explore some threats in more detail. In the case of Baltic Dunlin nest predation of eggs and chicks increase the extinction risk. In Montagu’s Harrier viability increases if breeding attempts within agricultural areas are detected and safeguarded. In order to enhance the PVA model, and build a stage-structured model, we suggest that detailed data on fecundity and survival should be collected.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Lund: Swedish Ornithological Society , 2010. Vol. 20, 93-102 p.
National Category
Developmental Biology
Research subject
Natural Science, Evolutionary Biology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-9431OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-9431DiVA: diva2:371933
Available from: 2010-11-23 Created: 2010-11-23 Last updated: 2016-11-14Bibliographically approved

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Betzholtz, Per-EricBerger, TobiasStedt, Johan
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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
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