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Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector.
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics. (CAFO)
2010 (English)In: European Journal of Population, ISSN 0168-6577, E-ISSN 1572-9885, Vol. 26, no 2, p. 183-205Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Recently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught

in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be

social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction

mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent-based

simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth

and population path is calibrated to Swedish data using the Swedish social policy

setup. The model is provoked into a fertility trap by increasing relative child costs

linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then

insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily

enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the

adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 26, no 2, p. 183-205
Keywords [en]
Low fertility trap, Social norms, Relative income, Economic growth
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-15987DOI: 10.1007/s10680-009-9184-zOAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-15987DiVA, id: diva2:462619
Available from: 2011-12-07 Created: 2011-12-07 Last updated: 2017-12-08Bibliographically approved

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Lindh, Thomas

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf