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What could the next 40 years hold for global tourism?
University of Waterloo, Canada.
Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Organisation and Entrepreneurship. Western Norway Research Institute, Norway.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0505-9207
2015 (English)In: Tourism Recreation Resarch, ISSN 0250-8281, E-ISSN 2320-0308, Vol. 40, no 3, p. 269-285Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Over the past 40 years, tourism has developed to become a sector of global economic, social and environmental significance. This paper provides a retrospective overview of the massive expansion and evolving geography of international and domestic tourism over the last 40 years, including the factors that enabled and challenged this growth, in order to contextualize a discussion of what the next 40 years may hold for global tourism. Social, technical, economic, environmental and political dimensions influencing tourism over the past and future 40 years are identified, together with a synthesis of available long-range scenarios of tourism futures to 2050. Comparisons with selected non-tourism scenarios suggest that current assessments of tourism futures are limited in scope, and that the tourism sector may have much to learn from scenario building and forecasting from other economic sectors and analyses of global grand challenges. Reconciling anticipated tourism growth with the sustainability and development imperatives of the next 40 years are discussed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2015. Vol. 40, no 3, p. 269-285
Keyword [en]
drivers of tourism change, scenarios, sustainability, tourism futures
National Category
Social and Economic Geography
Research subject
Tourism
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-47023DOI: 10.1080/02508281.2015.1075739Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84997703662OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-47023DiVA, id: diva2:867069
Available from: 2015-11-04 Created: 2015-11-04 Last updated: 2017-12-01Bibliographically approved

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Gössling, Stefan

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
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  • vancouver
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More styles
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  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
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