lnu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Attributing causes of regional climate change in the Baltic Sea area
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, Switzerland.
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2025-410X
Stockholm University.
2015 (English)In: Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2015, Vol. 17Conference paper, Abstract (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Here we assess to what extent the effect of forcing mechanisms on the observed climate change in the Baltic Sea area can be detected. In particular, we assess the effect of factors causing large-scale warming (mainly anthropogenic greenhouse gases) and the regional effect of atmospheric aerosols and land-cover and land-use changes. Unfortunately, only very few targeted analyses for the Baltic catchment area are available at the moment, but findings at the regional scale are generally qualitatively consistent with global or hemispheric analyses.

The observed warming in summer cannot be explained without human influence (in particular the warming effect of increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations). In other seasons and for other aspects of regional warming, findings are mixed or not significant as of yet. In addition, large-scale circulation and rainfall changes in the northern hemisphere and the Arctic have been detected to exceed natural internal variability. Other aspects of regional climate change including changes in storminess, snow properties, runoff and the changing physicalproperties of the Baltic Sea have not been formally attributed to human influence yet. Scientific understanding of the effect of aerosols on regional climate is still accumulating. It is likely that the major emission changes in Europe have had an effect on the climate in the Baltic region, the magnitude of which, however, is still unknown. Development of the modelling capability and targeted analyses are urgently needed to reduce the uncertainties related to the effect of aerosol changes on regional observed climate change. Historic deforestation and recent reforestation are the major anthropogenic land-cover changes affecting the Baltic Sea area. From all studies at hand it can be concluded that there is no evidence that anthropogenic land-cover change would be one of the forcings behind the recent warming in the Baltic region. However, past anthropogenic land-cover change may have influenced regional climate significantly already more than two thousand years ago.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 17
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Natural Science, Environmental Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-51777OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-51777DiVA: diva2:915999
Conference
EGU General Assembly 2015
Available from: 2016-03-31 Created: 2016-03-31 Last updated: 2016-10-25Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Abstract

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Gaillard, Marie-José
By organisation
Department of Biology and Environmental Science
Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

Total: 58 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf