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  • 1.
    Andersson, Agneta
    et al.
    Umeå University.
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Ripszam, Matyas
    Umeå University.
    Rowe, Owen
    Umeå University.
    Wikner, Johan
    Umeå university.
    Haglund, Peter
    Umeå University.
    Eilola, Kari
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Legrand, Catherine
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Figueroa, Daniela
    Umeå University.
    Paczkowska, Joanna
    Umeå University.
    Lindehoff, Elin
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Tysklind, Mats
    Umeå University.
    Elmgren, Ragnar
    Department of Ecology.
    Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management2015In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, no Supplement 3, p. S345-S356Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 degrees C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase similar to 30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  • 2.
    Bais, A. F.
    et al.
    Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Greece.
    Lucas, R. M.
    Australian Natl Univ, Australia.
    Bornman, J. F.
    Curtin Univ, Australia.
    Williamson, C. E.
    Miami Univ, USA.
    Sulzberger, B.
    Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Switzerland.
    Austin, A. T.
    Univ Buenos Aires, Argentina;IFEVA CONICET, Argentina.
    Wilson, S. R.
    Univ Wollongong, Australia.
    Andrady, A. L.
    North Carolina State Univ, USA.
    Bernhard, G.
    Biospher Inc, USA.
    McKenzie, R. L.
    NIWA, New Zealand.
    Aucamp, P. J.
    Ptersa Environm Consultants, South Africa.
    Madronich, S.
    Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, USA.
    Neale, R. E.
    Royal Brisbane Hosp, Australia.
    Yazar, S.
    Univ Western Australia, Australia.
    Young, A. R.
    Kings Coll London, UK.
    de Gruijl, F. R.
    Leiden Univ, Netherlands.
    Norval, M.
    Univ Edinburgh, UK.
    Takizawa, Y.
    Akita Univ, Japan.
    Barnes, P. W.
    Loyola Univ, USA.
    Robson, T. M.
    Univ Helsinki, Finland.
    Robinson, S. A.
    Univ Wollongong, Australia.
    Ballare, C. L.
    Univ Buenos Aires, Argentina;IFEVA CONICET, Argentina.
    Flint, S. D.
    Univ Idaho, USA.
    Neale, P. J.
    Smithsonian Environm Res Ctr, USA.
    Hylander, Samuel
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Rose, K. C.
    Rensselaer Polytech Inst, USA.
    Wängber, S. -A
    University of Gothenburg.
    Häder, D. -P
    Friedrich-Alexander Univ, Germany.
    Worrest, R. C.
    Columbia Univ, USA.
    Zepp, R. G.
    US EPA, USA.
    Paul, N. D.
    Univ Lancaster, UK.
    Cory, R. M.
    Univ Michigan, USA.
    Solomon, K. R.
    Univ Guelph, Canada.
    Longstreth, J.
    Inst Global Risk Res, USA.
    Pandey, K. K.
    Inst Wood Sci & Technol, India.
    Redhwi, H. H.
    King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals, Saudi Arabia.
    Torikaiaj, A.
    Mat Life Soc Japan, Japan.
    Heikkila, A. M.
    Finnish Meteorol Inst R&D Climate Res, Finland.
    Environmental effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 20172018In: Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences, ISSN 1474-905X, E-ISSN 1474-9092, Vol. 17, no 2, p. 127-179Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels of experts that inform the Parties to the Montreal Protocol. The EEAP focuses on the effects of UV radiation on human health, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, air quality, and materials, as well as on the interactive effects of UV radiation and global climate change. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously held. Because of the Montreal Protocol, there are now indications of the beginnings of a recovery of stratospheric ozone, although the time required to reach levels like those before the 1960s is still uncertain, particularly as the effects of stratospheric ozone on climate change and vice versa, are not yet fully understood. Some regions will likely receive enhanced levels of UV radiation, while other areas will likely experience a reduction in UV radiation as ozone- and climate-driven changes affect the amounts of UV radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Like the other Panels, the EEAP produces detailed Quadrennial Reports every four years; the most recent was published as a series of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter Update Reports of recent and relevant scientific findings. The most recent of these was for 2016 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2017, 16, 107-145). The present 2017 Update Report assesses some of the highlights and new insights about the interactive nature of the direct and indirect effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change. A full 2018 Quadrennial Assessment, will be made available in 2018/2019.

  • 3.
    Barnes, Paul W.
    et al.
    Loyola Univ, USA..
    Williamson, Craig E.
    Miami Univ, USA.
    Lucas, Robyn M.
    Australian Natl Univ, Australia.
    Robinson, Sharon A.
    Univ Wollongong, Australia.
    Madronich, Sasha
    Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, USA.
    Paul, Nigel D.
    Univ Lancaster, UK.
    Bornman, Janet F.
    Murdoch Univ, Australia.
    Bais, Alkiviadis F.
    Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Greece.
    Sulzberger, Barbara
    Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol Eawag, Switzerland.
    Wilson, Stephen R.
    Univ Wollongong, Australia.
    Andrady, Anthony L.
    North Carolina State Univ, USA.
    McKenzie, Richard L.
    Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, New Zealand.
    Neale, Patrick J.
    Smithsonian Environm Res Ctr, USA.
    Austin, Amy T.
    Univ Buenos Aires, Argentina.
    Bernhard, Germar H.
    Biospher Inc, USA.
    Solomon, Keith R.
    Univ Guelph, Canada.
    Neale, Rachel E.
    QIMR Berghofer Med Res Inst, Australia.
    Young, Paul J.
    Univ Lancaster, UK.
    Norval, Mary
    Univ Edinburgh, UK.
    Rhodes, Lesley E.
    Univ Manchester, UK.
    Hylander, Samuel
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science. Salford Royal NHS Fdn Trust, UK.
    Rose, Kevin C.
    Rensselaer Polytech Inst, USA.
    Longstreth, Janice
    Inst Global Risk Res, USA.
    Aucamp, Pieter J.
    Ptersa Environm Consultants, South Africa.
    Ballare, Carlos L.
    Univ Buenos Aires, Argentina.
    Cory, Rose M.
    Univ Michigan, USA.
    Flint, Stephan D.
    Univ Idaho, USA.
    de Gruijl, Frank R.
    Leiden Univ, Netherlands.
    Haeder, Donat-P
    Friedrich Alexander Univ, Germany.
    Heikkila, Anu M.
    Finnish Meteorol Inst R&D Climate Res, Finland.
    Jansen, Marcel A. K.
    Univ Coll Cork, Ireland.
    Pandey, Krishna K.
    Inst Wood Sci & Technol, India.
    Robson, T. Matthew
    Univ Helsinki, Finland.
    Sinclair, Craig A.
    Canc Council Victoria, Australia.
    Wangberg, Sten-Ake
    University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Worrest, Robert C.
    Columbia Univ, USA.
    Yazar, Seyhan
    Univ Western Australia, Australia.
    Young, Antony R.
    Kings Coll London, UK.
    Zepp, Richard G.
    US EPA, USA.
    Ozone depletion, ultraviolet radiation, climate change and prospects for a sustainable future2019In: Nature Sustainability, E-ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 2, no 7, p. 569-579Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Changes in stratospheric ozone and climate over the past 40-plus years have altered the solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation conditions at the Earth's surface. Ozone depletion has also contributed to climate change across the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are interacting in complex ways to affect human health, food and water security, and ecosystem services. Many adverse effects of high UV exposure have been avoided thanks to the Montreal Protocol with its Amendments and Adjustments, which have effectively controlled the production and use of ozone-depleting substances. This international treaty has also played an important role in mitigating climate change. Climate change is modifying UV exposure and affecting how people and ecosystems respond to UV; these effects will become more pronounced in the future. The interactions between stratospheric ozone, climate and UV radiation will therefore shift over time; however, the Montreal Protocol will continue to have far-reaching benefits for human well-being and environmental sustainability.

  • 4.
    Bergh, Johan
    et al.
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Nilsson, Urban
    Kjartansson, Bjarki
    Karlsson, Matts
    Impact of climate change on the productivity of Silver birch, Norway spruce and Scots pine stands in Sweden with economic implications for timber production2010In: Ecological Bulletins, ISSN 0346-6868, Vol. 53, no 16, p. 185-195Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Blennow, Kristina
    et al.
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Andersson, Mikael
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Bergh, Johan
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Sallnäs, Ola
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Olofsson, Erika
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest2010In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 99, no 1-2, p. 261-278Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071–2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961–1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15–40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071–2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.

  • 6.
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    et al.
    Åbo Akademi University, Finland.
    Andersson, AgnetaUmeå University.Elmgren, RagnarStockholm University.Bidleman, TerryUmeå University.Blenckner, ThorstenStockholm University.Gorokhova, ElenaStockholm University.Legrand, CatherineLinnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.Wikner, JohanUmeå University.
    Special Issue: Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change2015Collection (editor) (Refereed)
  • 7.
    Bunse, Carina
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Lundin, Daniel
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Karlsson, Christofer M. G.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Akram, Neelam
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Vila-Costa, Maria
    Centre d’Estudis Avançats de Blanes-CSIC, Spain.
    Palovaara, Joakim
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Svensson, Lovisa
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Holmfeldt, Karin
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    González, José M.
    University of La Laguna, Spain.
    Calvo, Eva
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Pelejero, Carles
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Marrasé, Cèlia
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Dopson, Mark
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Gasol, Josep
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Pinhassi, Jarone
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Response of marine bacterioplankton pH homeostasis gene expression to elevated CO22016In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 6, no 5, p. 483-487Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human-induced ocean acidification impacts marine life. Marine bacteria are major drivers of biogeochemical nutrient cycles and energy fluxes1; hence, understanding their performance under projected climate change scenarios is crucial for assessing ecosystem functioning. Whereas genetic and physiological responses of phytoplankton to ocean acidification are being disentangled2, 3, 4, corresponding functional responses of bacterioplankton to pH reduction from elevated CO2 are essentially unknown. Here we show, from metatranscriptome analyses of a phytoplankton bloom mesocosm experiment, that marine bacteria responded to lowered pH by enhancing the expression of genes encoding proton pumps, such as respiration complexes, proteorhodopsin and membrane transporters. Moreover, taxonomic transcript analysis showed that distinct bacterial groups expressed different pH homeostasis genes in response to elevated CO2. These responses were substantial for numerous pH homeostasis genes under low-chlorophyll conditions (chlorophyll a <2.5 μg l−1); however, the changes in gene expression under high-chlorophyll conditions (chlorophyll a >20 μg l−1) were low. Given that proton expulsion through pH homeostasis mechanisms is energetically costly, these findings suggest that bacterioplankton adaptation to ocean acidification could have long-term effects on the economy of ocean ecosystems.

  • 8. Bäckstrand, Karin
    et al.
    Lövbrand, Eva
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Planting Trees to Mitigate Climate Change: Contested Discourses of Ecological Modernization, Green Governmentality and Civic Environmentalism2006In: Global Environmental Politics, ISSN 1536-0091, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 50-75Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9.
    Cao, Xianyong
    et al.
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany;Chinese Acad Sci, Peoples Republic of China.
    Tian, Fang
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany.
    Li, Furong
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Rudaya, Natalia
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany;Russian Acad Sci, Russia;Univ Potsdam, Germany.
    Xu, Qinghai
    Hebei Normal Univ, Peoples Republic of China.
    Herzschuh, Ulrike
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany;Univ Potsdam, Germany.
    Pollen-based quantitative land-cover reconstruction for northern Asia covering the last 40 ka cal BP2019In: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 15, no 4, p. 1503-1536Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We collected the available relative pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) for 27 major pollen taxa from Eurasia and applied them to estimate plant abundances during the last 40 ka cal BP (calibrated thousand years before present) using pollen counts from 203 fossil pollen records in northern Asia (north of 40 degrees N). These pollen records were organized into 42 site groups and regional mean plant abundances calculated using the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites) model. Time-series clustering, constrained hierarchical clustering, and detrended canonical correspondence analysis were performed to investigate the regional pattern, time, and strength of vegetation changes, respectively. Reconstructed regional plant functional type (PFT) components for each site group are generally consistent with modern vegetation in that vegetation changes within the regions are characterized by minor changes in the abundance of PFTs rather than by an increase in new PFTs, particularly during the Holocene. We argue that pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant abundances should be a more reliable reflection of the vegetation as pollen may overestimate the turnover, particularly when a high pollen producer invades areas dominated by low pollen producers. Comparisons with vegetation-independent climate records show that climate change is the primary factor driving land-cover changes at broad spatial and temporal scales. Vegetation changes in certain regions or periods, however, could not be explained by direct climate change, e.g. inland Siberia, where a sharp increase in evergreen conifer tree abundance occurred at ca. 7-8 ka cal BP despite an unchanging climate, potentially reflecting their response to complex climate-permafrost-fire-vegetation interactions and thus a possible long-term lagged climate response.

  • 10.
    Eriksson, Ljusk Ola
    et al.
    Department of Forest Resource Management, SLU.
    Gustavsson, Leif
    Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för teknik och hållbar utveckling.
    Hänninen, Riitta
    METLA .
    Kallio, Maarit
    METLA .
    Lyhykäinen, Henna
    University of Helsinki.
    Pingoud, Kim
    VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.
    Pohjola, Johanna
    METLA .
    Sathre, Roger
    Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för teknik och hållbar utveckling.
    Solberg, Birger
    UMB .
    Svanaes, Jarle
    Norsk Treteknisk Institutt.
    Valsta, Lauri
    University of Helsinki.
    Climate change mitigation through increased wood use in the European construction sector - towards an integrated modelling framework2012In: European Journal of Forest Research, ISSN 1612-4669, E-ISSN 1612-4677, Vol. 131, no 1, p. 131-144Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008-2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2-0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing

  • 11.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller Univ, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Does risk communication really decrease cooperation in climate change mitigation?2018In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 149, no 2, p. 147-158Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Effective communication of risks involved in the climate change discussion is crucial and despite ambitious protection policies, the possibility of irreversible consequences actually occurring can only be diminished but never ruled out completely. We present a laboratory experiment that studies how residual risk of failure of climate change policies affects willingness to contribute to such policies. Despite prevailing views on people's risk aversion, we found that contributions were higher at least in the final part of treatments including a residual risk. We interpret this as the product of a psychological process where residual risk puts participants into an "alarm mode," keeping their contributions high. We discuss the broad practical implications this might have on the real-world communication of climate change.

  • 12.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller University, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Experimental evidence of an environmental attitude-behavior gap in high-cost situations2019In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 166, p. 1-12, article id 106434Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    So far, there has been mixed evidence in the literature regarding the relationship between environmental attitudes and actual `green' actions, something known as the attitude-behavior gap. This raises the question of when attitudes can actually work as a lever to promote environmental objectives, such as climate change mitigation, and, conversely, when other factors would be more effective. This paper presents an online experiment with real money at stake and real-world consequences designed to test the effect of environmental attitudes on behavior under various conditions. We found that environmental attitudes affected behavior only in low-cost situations. This finding is consistent with the low-cost hypothesis of environmental behavior postulating that concerned individuals will undertake low-cost actions in order to reduce the cognitive dissonance  between their attitudes and rational realization of the environmental impact of their behavior but avoid higher-cost actions despite their greater potential as far as environmental protection. This finding has important consequences for the design of more effective climate policies in a democratic context as it puts limits on what can be achieved by raising environmental concern alone.

    The full text will be freely available from 2021-09-01 08:00
  • 13.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller University, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Investing into climate change mitigation despite the risk of failure2019In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 154, no 3-4, p. 453-460Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to convince both policy makers and the general public to engage in climate change mitigation activities, it is crucial to communicate the inherent risks in an effective way. Due to the complexity of the system, mitigation activities cannot completely rule out the possibility of the climate reaching a dangerous tipping point but can only reduce it to some unavoidable residual risk level. We present an online experiment based on a sample of US citizens and designed to improve our understanding of how the presence of such residual risk affects the willingness to invest into climate change mitigation. We found that, far from reducing them, the presence of residual risk actually increases investments into mitigation activities. This result suggests that scientists and policy makers should consider being more transparent about communicating the residual risks entailed by such initiatives.

  • 14.
    Forsman, Anders
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Berggren, Hanna
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Åström, Mats E.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Larsson, Per
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    To what extent can existing research help project climate change impacts on biodiversity in aquatic environments?: A review of methodological approaches2016In: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, E-ISSN 2077-1312, Vol. 4, no 4, article id 75Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is broadly accepted that continued global warming will pose a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. But how reliable are current projections regarding consequences of future climate change for biodiversity? To address this issue, we review the methodological approaches in published studies of how life in marine and freshwater environments responds to temperature shifts. We analyze and compare observational field surveys and experiments performed either in the laboratory or under natural conditions in the wild, the type of response variables considered, the number of species investigated, study duration, and the nature and magnitude of experimental temperature manipulations. The observed patterns indicate that, due to limitations of study design, ecological and evolutionary responses of individuals, populations, species, and ecosystems to temperature change were in many cases difficult to establish, and causal mechanism(s) often remained ambiguous. We also discovered that the thermal challenge in experimental studies was 10,000 times more severe than reconstructed estimates of past and projections of future warming of the oceans, and that temperature manipulations also tended to increase in magnitude in more recent studies. These findings raise some concerns regarding the extent to which existing research can increase our understanding of how higher temperatures associated with climate change will affect life in aquatic environments. In view of our review findings, we discuss the trade-off between realism and methodological tractability. We also propose a series of suggestions and directions towards developing a scientific agenda for improving the validity and inference space of future research efforts.

  • 15.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Fire as part of the climate system2013In: Public Service Review: Europe, no 25, p. 368-369Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 16.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Understanding climate forcing2012In: Public Service Review: Europe, no 24, p. 194-195Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 17.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Kleinen, Thomas
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Nielsen, Anne Birgitte
    Lund University.
    Bergh, Johan
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Forestry and Wood Technology.
    Kaplan, Jed
    University of Lausanne, Switzerland.
    Poska, Anneli
    Lund University.
    Sandström, Camilla
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Trondman, Anna-Kari
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Wramneby, Anna
    Lund University.
    Causes of Regional Change: Land Cover2015In: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin / [ed] The BACC II Author team, Springer, 2015, p. 453-477Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings for which the net direction of the climate response over the last two centuries is still not known. The uncertainty is due to the often counteracting temperature responses to the many biogeophysical effects and to the biogeochemical versus biogeophysical effects. Palaeoecological studies show that the major transformation of the landscape by anthropogenic activities in the southern zone of the Baltic Sea basin occurred between 6000 and 3000/2500 cal year BP. The only modelling study of the biogeophysical effects of past ALCCs on regional climate in north-western Europe suggests that deforestation between 6000 and 200 cal year BP may have caused significant change in winter and summer temperature. There is no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea area since AD 1850 would have been a major cause of the recent climate warming in the region through a positive biogeochemical feedback. Several model studies suggest that boreal reforestation might not be an effective climate warming mitigation tool as it might lead to increased warming through biogeophysical processes.

  • 18.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    Poska, Anneli
    Trondman, Anna-Kari
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Mazier, Florence
    Kaplan, Jed O.
    Land cover-climate interactions in the past for the understanding of current and future climate change: the LANDCLIM project2014In: Proceedings of the Global Land Project 2nd Open Science Meeting, Berlin, March 19th – 21st, 2014: Land transformations : between global challenges and local realities, Amsterdam/Berlin/Sao Paulo: Global Land Project , 2014, p. 229-230Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The LANDCLIM (LAND cover – CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) project has the overall aim to quantify human-induced changes in regional vegetation/land-cover in northwestern and western Europe North of the Alps during the Holocene (the last 11 500 years) with the purpose to evaluate and further refine the dynamic vegetation model LPJGUESS and the regional climate model RCA3, and to assess the possible effects on the climate development of two historical processes, i.e. climate-driven changes in vegetation and human-induced changes in land cover, via the influence of forested versus non-forested land cover on shortwave albedo, energy and water fluxes. Accounting for land surface changes may be particularly important for regional climate modeling, as the biophysical feedbacks operate at this scale. The aims of the LANDCLIM project are achieved by applying a model-data comparison scheme. The REVEALS model is used to estimate land cover from pollen data for 10 plant functional types (PFTs) and 5 time windows of the Holocene - modern time, 200 BP, 500 BP, 3000 BP and 6000 BP. The REVEALS estimates are then compared to the LPJGUESS simulations of potential vegetation and with the ALCC scenarios of Kaplan et al. (KK10) and Klein-Goldewijk et al. (HYDE). The alternative descriptions of past land-cover are then used in the regional climate model RCA3 to study the effect of anthropogenic land-cover on climate. The model-simulated climate is finally compared to palaeoclimate proxies other than pollen. The REVEALS estimates demonstrate that the study region was characterized by larger areas of human-induced openland than pollen percentages suggest, and that these areas were already very large by 3000 BP. The KK10 scenarios were found to be closer to the REVEALS estimates than the HYDE scenarios. LPJGUESS simulates potential climate-induced vegetation. The results from the RCA3 runs at 200 BP and 6000 BP using the LPJGUESS and KK10 land-cover descriptions indicate that past human-induced deforestation did produce a decrease in summer temperatures of >0 - 1.5°C due to biogeophysical processes, and that the degree of decrease differed between regions; the effect of human-induced deforestation on winter temperatures was shown to be more complex. The positive property of forests as CO2 sinks is well known. But afforestation (i.e. planting forest) may also have the opposite effect of warming the climate through biogeophysical processes. Careful studies on land cover-climate interactions are essential to understand the net result of all possible processes related to anthropogenic land-cover change so that relevant landscape management can be implemented for mitigation of climate warming.

  • 19.
    Gimmi, Urs
    et al.
    Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
    Poulter, Ben
    Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environement (LSCE), Gif sur Yvette, France.
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. Forest Ecology, Department of Environmental Sciences, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, .
    Portner, H.
    Forest Ecology, Department of Environmental Sciences, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, .
    Weber, P
    Research Unit Soil Sciences, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
    Bürgi, M.
    Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
    Soil carbon pools in Swiss forests show legacy effects from historic forest litter raking2013In: Landscape Ecology, ISSN 0921-2973, E-ISSN 1572-9761, Vol. 28, no 5, p. 835-846Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Globally, forest soils contain twice as much carbon as forest vegetation. Consequently, natural and anthropogenic disturbances affecting carbon accumulation in forest soils can alter regional to global carbon balance. In this study, we evaluate the effects of historic litter raking on soil carbon stocks, a former forest use which used to be widespread throughout Europe for centuries. We estimate, for Switzerland, the carbon sink potential in current forest soils due to recovery from past litter raking ('legacy effect'). The year 1650 was chosen as starting year for litter raking, with three different end years (1875/1925/1960) implemented for this forest use in the biogeochemical model LPJ-GUESS. The model was run for different agricultural and climatic zones separately. Number of cattle, grain production and the area of wet meadow have an impact on the specific demand for forest litter. The demand was consequently calculated based on historical statistical data on these factors. The results show soil carbon pools to be reduced by an average of 17 % after 310 years of litter raking and legacy effects were still visible 130 years after abandonment of this forest use (2 % average reduction). We estimate the remaining carbon sink potential in Swiss forest due to legacy effects from past litter raking to amount to 158,000 tC. Integrating historical data into biogeochemical models provides insight into the relevance of past land-use practices. Our study underlines the importance of considering potentially long-lasting effects of such land use practices for carbon accounting.

  • 20. Gimmi, Urs
    et al.
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. Umeå universitet.
    Buergi, Matthias
    Scherstjanoi, Marc
    Bugmann, Harald
    Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data2009In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 121-130Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the terrestrial carbon budget is of key importance for atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, little is known on the effects of management and natural disturbances on historical carbon stocks at the regional scale. We reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation carbon stocks and flows in forests across the past 100 years for a valley in the eastern Swiss Prealps using quantitative and qualitative information from forest management plans. The excellent quality of the historical information makes it possible to link dynamics in growing stocks with high-resolution time series for natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The results of the historical reconstruction are compared with modelled potential natural vegetation. Forest carbon stock at the beginning of the twentieth century was substantially reduced compared to natural conditions as a result of large scale clearcutting lasting until the late nineteenth century. Recovery of the forests from this unsustainable exploitation and systematic forest management were the main drivers of a strong carbon accumulation during almost the entire twentieth century. In the 1990s two major storm events and subsequent bark beetle infestations significantly reduced stocks back to the levels of the mid-twentieth century. The future potential for further carbon accumulation was found to be strongly limited, as the potential for further forest expansion in this valley is low and forest properties seem to approach equilibrium with the natural disturbance regime. We conclude that consistent long-term observations of carbon stocks and their changes provide rich information on the historical range of variability of forest ecosystems. Such historical information improves our ability to assess future changes in carbon stocks. Further, the information is vital for better parameterization and initialization of dynamic regional scale vegetation models and it provides important background for appropriate management decisions.

  • 21. Goettel, Holger
    et al.
    Alexander, Jorn
    Keup-Thiel, Elke
    Rechid, Diana
    Hagemann, Stefan
    Blome, Tanja
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    Jacob, Daniela
    Influence of changed vegetations fields on regional climate simulations in the Barents Sea Region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 35-50Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the context of the EU-Project BALANCE (http://balance-eu.info) the regional climate model REMO was used for extensive calculations of the Barents Sea climate to investigate the vulnerability of this region to climate change. The regional climate model REMO simulated the climate change of the Barents Sea Region between 1961 and 2100 (Control and Climate Change run, CCC-Run). REMO on similar to 50 km horizontal resolution was driven by the transient ECHAM4/OPYC3 IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The output of the CCC-Run was applied to drive the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. The results of the vegetation model were used to repeat the CCC-Run with dynamic vegetation fields. The feedback effect of the modified vegetation on the climate change signal is investigated and discussed with focus on precipitation, temperature and snow cover. The effect of the offline coupled vegetation feedback run is much lower than the greenhouse gas effect.

  • 22.
    Griffiths, Natalie A.
    et al.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Hanson, Paul J.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Ricciuto, Daniel M.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Iversen, Colleen M.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Jensen, Anna M.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Forestry and Wood Technology. Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Malhotra, Avni
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    McFarlane, Karis J.
    Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, USA.
    Norby, Richard J.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Sargsyan, Khachik
    Sandia Natl Labs, USA.
    Sebestyen, Stephen D.
    USDA Forest Serv, USA.
    Shi, Xiaoying
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Walker, Anthony P.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Ward, Eric J.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Warren, Jeffrey M.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Weston, David J.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Temporal and Spatial Variation in Peatland Carbon Cycling and Implications for Interpreting Responses of an Ecosystem-Scale Warming Experiment2017In: Soil Science Society of America Journal, ISSN 0361-5995, E-ISSN 1435-0661, Vol. 81, no 6, p. 1668-1688Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We are conducting a large-scale, long-term climate change response experiment in an ombrotrophic peat bog in Minnesota to evaluate the effects of warming and elevated CO2 on ecosystem processes using empirical and modeling approaches. To better frame future assessments of peatland responses to climate change, we characterized and compared spatial vs. temporal variation in measured C cycle processes and their environmental drivers. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis of a peatland C model to identify how variation in ecosystem parameters contributes to model prediction uncertainty. High spatial variability in C cycle processes resulted in the inability to determine if the bog was a C source or sink, as the 95% confidence interval ranged from a source of 50 g C m(-2) yr(-1) to a sink of 67 g C m(-2) yr(-1). Model sensitivity analysis also identified that spatial variation in tree and shrub photosynthesis, allocation characteristics, and maintenance respiration all contributed to large variations in the pretreatment estimates of net C balance. Variation in ecosystem processes can be more thoroughly characterized if more measurements are collected for parameters that are highly variable over space and time, and especially if those measurements encompass environmental gradients that may be driving the spatial and temporal variation (e.g., hummock vs. hollow microtopographies, and wet vs. dry years). Together, the coupled modeling and empirical approaches indicate that variability in C cycle processes and their drivers must be taken into account when interpreting the significance of experimental warming and elevated CO2 treatments.

  • 23.
    Kerren, Andreas
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Computer Science.
    Jusufi, Ilir
    University of California, USA.
    Liu, Jiayi
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Computer Science.
    Multi-Scale Trend Visualization of Long-Term Temperature Data Sets2014In: Proceedings of SIGRAD 2014, Visual Computing, June 12-13, 2014, Göteborg, Sweden / [ed] M. Obaid, D. Sjölie and M. Fjeld, Linköping University Electronic Press, 2014, p. 91-94Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The analysis and presentation of climate observations is a traditional application of various visualization approaches. The available data sets are usually huge and were typically collected over a long period of time. In this paper, we focus on the visualization of a specific aspect of climate data: our visualization tool was primarily developed for providing an overview of temperature measurements for one location over decades or even centuries. In order to support an efficient overview and visual representation of the data, it is based on a region-oriented metaphor that includes various granularity levels and aggregation features. 

  • 24.
    Kumarathunge, Dushan P.
    et al.
    Western Sydney University, Australia;Coconut Research Institute of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka.
    Medlyn, Belinda E.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Drake, John E.
    State University of New York, USA.
    Tjoelker, Mark G.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Aspinwall, Michael J.
    University of North Florida, USA.
    Battaglia, Michael
    CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Australia.
    Cano, Francisco J.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Carter, Kelsey R.
    Michigan Technological University, USA.
    Cavaleri, Molly A.
    Michigan Technological University, USA.
    Cernusak, Lucas A.
    James Cook University, Australia.
    Chambers, Jeffrey Q.
    University of California Berkeley, USA.
    Crous, Kristine Y.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    De Kauwe, Martin G.
    University of New South Wales, Australia.
    Dillaway, Dylan N.
    Unity College, USA.
    Dreyer, Erwin
    Université de Lorraine, France.
    Ellsworth, David S.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Ghannoum, Oula
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Han, Qingmin
    Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), Japan.
    Hikosaka, Kouki
    Tohoku University, Japan.
    Jensen, Anna M.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Forestry and Wood Technology.
    Kelly, Jeff W. G.
    University of Washington, USA.
    Kruger, Eric L.
    University of Wisconsin‐Madison, USA.
    Mercado, Lina M.
    University of Exeter, UK;Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK.
    Onoda, Yusuke
    Kyoto University, Japan.
    Reich, Peter B.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Rogers, Alistair
    Brookhaven National Laboratory, USA.
    Slot, Martijn
    Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama.
    Smith, Nicholas G.
    Texas Tech University, USA.
    Tarvainen, Lasse
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden;University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Tissue, David T.
    Western Sydney University, USA.
    Togashi, Henrique F.
    Macquarie University, Australia.
    Tribuzy, Edgard S.
    Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará (UFOPA), Brazil.
    Uddling, Johan
    University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Vårhammar, Angelica
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Wallin, Göran
    University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Warren, Jeffrey M.
    Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA.
    Way, Danielle A.
    The University of Western Ontario, Canada;Duke University, USA.
    Acclimation and adaptation components of the temperature dependence of plant photosynthesis at the global scale2019In: New Phytologist, ISSN 0028-646X, E-ISSN 1469-8137, Vol. 222, no 2, p. 768-784Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The temperature response of photosynthesis is one of the key factors determining predicted responses to warming in global vegetation models (GVMs). The response may vary geographically, owing to genetic adaptation to climate, and temporally, as a result of acclimation to changes in ambient temperature. Our goal was to develop a robust quantitative global model representing acclimation and adaptation of photosynthetic temperature responses.

    We quantified and modelled key mechanisms responsible for photosynthetic temperature acclimation and adaptation using a global dataset of photosynthetic CO2 response curves, including data from 141 C3 species from tropical rainforest to Arctic tundra. We separated temperature acclimation and adaptation processes by considering seasonal and common-garden datasets, respectively.

    The observed global variation in the temperature optimum of photosynthesis was primarily explained by biochemical limitations to photosynthesis, rather than stomatal conductance or respiration. We found acclimation to growth temperature to be a stronger driver of this variation than adaptation to temperature at climate of origin.

    We developed a summary model to represent photosynthetic temperature responses and showed that it predicted the observed global variation in optimal temperatures with high accuracy. This novel algorithm should enable improved prediction of the function of global ecosystems in a warming climate.

  • 25.
    Leuzinger, S
    et al.
    School of Applied Sciences, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand .
    Manusch, C
    Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Forest Ecology, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland .
    Bugmann, H
    Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Forest Ecology, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland .
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    A sink-limited growth model improves biomass estimation along boreal and alpine tree lines2013In: Global Ecology and Biogeography, ISSN 1466-822X, E-ISSN 1466-8238, Vol. 22, no 8, p. 924-932Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Aim: Despite increasing evidence for plant growth often being limited by sink (meristem) activity rather than source (photosynthesis) activity, all currently available dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) simulate plant growth via source-limited processes. For a given climatic region, this may lead to an overestimation of carbon stock per unit surface area, particularly if a model fails to correctly predict forest cover. Our aim is to improve the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM by replacing the source-limited (SoL) tree growth algorithm by a sink-limited (SiL) one. Location: Our analysis focuses on the cold tree line at high latitudes and altitudes. We study two altitudinal transects in the Swiss Alps and the northern tree line. Methods: We limit annual net primary productivity of the LPJ DGVM by an algorithm based on the annual sum of growing degree-days (GDD), assuming that maximum plant growth is reached asymptotically with increasing GDD. Results: Comparing simulation results with observational data, we show that the locations of both the northern and the alpine tree line are estimated more accurately when using a SiL algorithm than when using the commonly employed SoL algorithm. Also, simulated carbon stocks decrease in a more realistic manner towards the tree line when the SiL algorithm is used. This has far-reaching implications for estimating and projecting present and future carbon stocks in temperature-limited ecosystems. Main conclusions: In the range of 60-80°N over Europe and Asia, carbon stored in vegetation is estimated to be c. 50% higher in the LPJ standard version (LPJ-SoL) compared with LPJ-SiL, resulting in a global difference in estimated biomass of 25 Pg (c. 5% of the global terrestrial standing biomass). Similarly, the simulated elevation of the upper tree line in the European Alps differs by c. 400m between the two model versions, thus implying an additional overestimation of carbon stored in mountain forests around the world.

  • 26. Leuzinger, Sebastian
    et al.
    Bigler, Christof
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    Koerner, Christian
    Poor methodology for predicting large-scale tree die-off2009In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 106, no 38Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 27.
    Majaneva, Sanna
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science. UiT Arctic Univ Norway, Norway.
    Hamon, Gwenaelle
    Norwegian Polar Res Inst, Norway.
    Fugmann, Gerlis
    UiT Arctic Univ Norway, Norway.
    Lisowska, Maja
    Ctr Polar Studies, Poland ; Polish Polar Consortium, PL-41200 Sosnowiec, Poland.;Int Arctic Sci Comm Secretariat, Germany..
    Baeseman, Jenny
    Norwegian Polar Res Inst, Norway ; Scott Polar Res Inst, Sci Comm Antarctic Res, Cambridge CB2 1ER, England.;Univ Alaska, Int Arctic Res Ctr, USA..
    Where are they now?: - A case study of the impact of international travel support for early career Arctic researchers2016In: Polar Science, ISSN 1873-9652, E-ISSN 1876-4428, Vol. 10, no 3, p. 382-394Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Supporting and training the next generation of researchers is crucial to continuous knowledge and leadership in Arctic research. An increasing number of Arctic organizations have developed initiatives to provide travel support for Early Career Researchers (ECRs) to participate in workshops, conferences and meetings and to network with internationally renowned scientific leaders. However, there has been little evaluation of the effectiveness of these initiatives. As a contribution to the 3rd International Conference on Arctic Research Planning, a study was conducted to analyze the career paths of ECRs who received travel funding from the International Arctic Science Committee between the start of the International Polar Year (2007-2008) and 2013. Two surveys were used: one sent to ECRs who received IASC travel support and one as a specific event study to those unsuccessfully applied for IASC travel support to the IPY 2010 Conference. The results of the surveys indicate that travel support was beneficial to both the research and careers of the respondents, especially if the ECR was engaged with a task or responsibility at the event. Survey responses also included suggestions on how funds could be better used to support the next generation of Arctic researchers. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  • 28.
    Manusch, C
    et al.
    ETH, Dept Environm Syst Sci, Inst Terr Ecosyst, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Bugmann, H
    ETH, Dept Environm Syst Sci, Inst Terr Ecosyst, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Heiri, C
    Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. ETH, Dept Environm Syst Sci, Inst Terr Ecosyst, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Tree mortality in dynamic vegetation models - A key feature for accurately simulating forest properties2012In: Ecological Modelling, ISSN 0304-3800, E-ISSN 1872-7026, Vol. 243, p. 101-111Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Dynamic vegetation models are important tools in ecological research, but not all processes of vegetation dynamics are captured adequately. Tree mortality is often modeled as a function of growth efficiency and maximum age. However, empirical studies have shown for different species that slow-growing trees may become older than fast-growing trees, implying a correlation of mortality with growth rate and size rather than age. We used the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS to compare the standard age-dependent mortality with two size-dependent mortality approaches. We found that all mortality approaches, when calibrated, yield a realistic pattern of growing stock and Plant Functional Type (PFT) distribution at five study sites in Switzerland. However, only the size-dependent approaches match a third pattern, i.e. the observed negative relationship between growth rate and longevity. As a consequence, trees are simulated to get older at higher than at lower altitudes/latitudes. In contrast, maximum tree ages do not change along these climatic gradients when the standard age-dependent mortality is used. As tree age and size determine forest structure, our more realistic mortality assumptions improved forest biomass estimation, but indicate a potential decline of carbon storage under climate change. We conclude that tree mortality should be modeled as a function of size rather than age. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 29. Matthes, Heidrun
    et al.
    Rinke, Annette
    Miller, Paul A.
    Kuhry, Peter
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. nstitute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
    Sensitivity of high-resolution Arctic regional climate model projections to different implementations of land surface processes2012In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 111, no 2, p. 197-214Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain. Different setups of the land surface model of the regional climate model HIRHAM were realized to analyze differences in the atmospheric circulation caused by (1) the incorporation of freezing/thawing of soil moisture, (2) the consideration of top organic soil horizons typical for the Arctic and (3) a vegetation shift due to a changing climate. The largest direct thermal effect in 2 m air temperature was found for the vegetation shift, which ranged between -1.5 K and 3 K. The inclusion of a freeze/thaw scheme for soil moisture shows equally large sensitivities in spring over cool areas with high soil moisture content. Although the sensitivity signal in 2 m air temperature for the experiments differs in amplitude, all experiments show changes in mean sea level pressure (mslp) and geopotential height (z) throughout the troposphere of similar magnitude (mslp: -2 hPa to 1.5 hPa, z: -15 gpm to 5 gpm). This points to the importance of dynamical feedbacks within the atmosphere-land system. Land and soil processes have a distinct remote influence on large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in addition to their direct, regional effects. The assessment of induced uncertainties due to the changed implementations of land surface processes discussed in this study demonstrates the need to take all those processes for future Arctic climate projections into account, and demonstrates a clear need to include similar implementations in regional and global climate models.

  • 30.
    Pemunta, Ngambouk Vitalis
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Arts and Humanities, Department of Cultural Sciences.
    The impact of climate change on food security and health in northern Cameroon2013In: New Developments in Global warming Research / [ed] Carter B. Keyes and Olivia C.Lucero, New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2013, 1, p. 1-50Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agriculture and the exploitation of natural resources are the main pivots of Cameroon’s economic development. An estimated 80 % of rural households are involved in farming and contribute about 30% to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, prolonged dry spells and droughts negatively affect agricultural output and economic development. This paper examines the drivers, magnitude and impact of climate change in the semi-arid northern section of Cameroon on food security and malnutrition. A conjunction between drought, climate change, desertification, prolonged dry spells and floods often lead to significant crop losses in this region. Compounding this situation is increased population pressure-partly due to the influx of refugees as well as droughts and floods which have partly led to the mobility of herds as a response to the extension of cropping areas, pasture shortage and farmer- grazer conflicts resulting from crop damage. This is happening against the backdrop of land tenure insecurity for women which, has been fuelled by competition and power struggle between customary and modern tenure systems affecting land management and access to resources. Drawing theoretical insights from the concept of “politics of the belly[1]” in political ecology and from resource use conflict theories, this chapter examines the negative impacts of climate change and calls attention to a shift away from formal institutions to individual behaviour so as to integrate and take note of the “politics of the belly” in political ecology. The omnipresent phenomenon of climate change has the potential to alter agricultural productivity, fuel illnesses and diseases in one of the least developed regions in Cameroon. Although climate, soil and vegetation are subject to variation, they are the fundamental elements of ecology and thus are interconnected. Climate can have a bearing on health and mortality in two ways. On the one hand, it conditions temperature which disproportionately affects children at tender ages as well as adults- more senior citizens die of heat stroke- and on the other, it favours the spread of infectious agents or their vectors-especially pathogenic micro-organisms. It is determinant to the type, quantity as well as the quality of food and water resources available during certain periods of the year.The paper suggests among others that the negative impacts of temperature and precipitation change could be counteracted by changing sowing dates, through the professionalisation of the livestock production system alongside the promotion of forage crops and by increasing investment in infrastructure- particularly transportation, energy and irrigation. The success of these measures will require a coordinated intersectorial and transborder approach to rural development.

    [1] Profit motive underpinning political leaning and participation as well as voting preference.

  • 31. Portner, H.
    et al.
    Bugmann, H.
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland.
    Temperature response functions introduce high uncertainty in modelled carbon stocks in cold temperature regimes2010In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 7, no 11, p. 3669-3684Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Models of carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems contain formulations for the dependence of respiration on temperature, but the sensitivity of predicted carbon pools and fluxes to these formulations and their parameterization is not well understood. Thus, we performed an uncertainty analysis of soil organic matter decomposition with respect to its temperature dependency using the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS. <br><br> We used five temperature response functions (Exponential, Arrhenius, Lloyd-Taylor, Gaussian, Van’t Hoff). We determined the parameter confidence ranges of the formulations by nonlinear regression analysis based on eight experimental datasets from Northern Hemisphere ecosystems. We sampled over the confidence ranges of the parameters and ran simulations for each pair of temperature response function and calibration site. We analyzed both the long-term and the short-term heterotrophic soil carbon dynamics over a virtual elevation gradient in southern Switzerland. <br><br> The temperature relationship of Lloyd-Taylor fitted the overall data set best as the other functions either resulted in poor fits (Exponential, Arrhenius) or were not applicable for all datasets (Gaussian, Van’t Hoff). There were two main sources of uncertainty for model simulations: (1) the lack of confidence in the parameter estimates of the temperature response, which increased with increasing temperature, and (2) the size of the simulated soil carbon pools, which increased with elevation, as slower turn-over times lead to higher carbon stocks and higher associated uncertainties. Our results therefore indicate that such projections are more uncertain for higher elevations and hence also higher latitudes, which are of key importance for the global terrestrial carbon budget. 

  • 32.
    Rasmont, Pierre
    et al.
    Université de Mons, Belgium.
    Franzén, Markus
    Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Germany.
    Lecocq, Thomas
    Université de Mons, Belgium.
    Harpke, Alexander
    Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Germany.
    Roberts, Stuart
    University of Reading, UK.
    Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.
    Naturalis Biodiversity Center, The Netherlands.
    Castro, Leopoldo
    I.E.S. Vega del Turia, Spain.
    Cederberg, Björn
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    Dvorak, Libor
    Municipal Museum Mariánské Lázně, Czech Republic.
    Fitzpatrick, Úna
    Municipal Museum Mariánské Lázně, Czech Republic.
    Gonseth, Yves
    Haubruge, Eric
    Mahé, Gilles
    Manino, Aulo
    Michez, Denis
    Neumayer, Johann
    Ødegaard, Frode
    Paukkunen, Juho
    Pawlikowski, Tadeusz
    Potts, Simon
    Reemer, Menno
    Settele, Josef
    Straka, Jakub
    Schweiger, Oliver
    Climatic Risk and Distribution Atlas of European Bumblebees2015Book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Bumble bees represent one of the most important groups of pollinators. In addition to their ecological and economic relevance, they are also a highly charismatic group which can help to increase the interest of people in realizing, enjoying and conserving natural systems. However, like most animals, bumble bees are sensitive to climate. In this atlas, maps depicting potential risks of climate change for bumble bees are shown together with informative summary statistics, ecological background information and a picture of each European species.

    Thanks to the EU FP7 project STEP, the authors gathered over one million bumblebee records from all over Europe. Based on these data, they modelled the current climatic niche for almost all European species (56 species) and projected future climatically suitable conditions using three climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. While under a moderate change scenario only 3 species are projected to be at the verge of extinction by 2100, 14 species are at high risk under an intermediate change scenario. Under a most severe change scenario as many as 25 species are projected to lose almost all of their climatically suitable area, while a total of 53 species (77% of the 69 European species) would lose the main part of their suitable area.

    Climatic risks for bumblebees can be extremely high, depending on the future development of human society, and the corresponding effects on the climate. Strong mitigation strategies are needed to preserve this important species group and to ensure the sustainable provision of pollination services, to which they considerably contribute.

  • 33. Rathi, Akshat
    Olofsson, Martin (Contributor)
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    The revolutionary technology pushing Sweden toward the seemingly impossible goal of zero emissions: The cure for emissions: algae2017In: Quartz, no 21 JuneArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 34.
    Reyer, C.P.O.
    et al.
    Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
    Leuzinger, S
    Auckland Univ Technol, Sch Appl Sci, Auckland 1142, New Zealand; ETH, Inst Terr Ecosyst ITES, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland; Univ Basel, Inst Bot, CH-4056 Basel, Switzerland.
    Rammig, A
    Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. ETH, Inst Terr Ecosyst ITES, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Bartholomeus, R.P.
    KWR Watercycle Res Inst, NL-3430 BB Nieuwegein, Netherlands.
    Bonfante, A.
    Natl Res Council Italy, Inst Mediterranean Agr & Forest Syst CNR ISAFoM, I-80056 Ercolano, NA, Italy.
    de Lorenzi, F
    Natl Res Council Italy, Inst Mediterranean Agr & Forest Syst CNR ISAFoM, I-80056 Ercolano, NA, Italy.
    Dury, M.
    Univ Liege, Unite Modelisat Climat & Cycles Biogeochim, B-4000 Liege, Belgium.
    Gloning, P.
    Tech Univ Munich, Chair Ecoclimatol, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany.
    Abou Jaoude, R.
    Univ Tuscia, Dept Innovat Biol Agrofood & Forest Syst DIBAF, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy.
    Klein, T
    Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Energy Res, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel.
    Kuster, T.M.
    ETH, Inst Terr Ecosyst ITES, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland; Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
    Martins, M.
    Univ Lisbon, Inst Geog & Spatial Planning IGOT, P-1600214 Lisbon, Portugal.
    Niedrist, G.
    European Acad Bolzano Bozen, Inst Alpine Environm, I-39100 Bolzano, Italy; Univ Innsbruck, Inst Ecol, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria.
    Riccardi, M.
    Natl Res Council Italy, Inst Mediterranean Agr & Forest Syst CNR ISAFoM, I-80056 Ercolano, NA, Italy.
    Wohlfahrt, G
    Univ Innsbruck, Inst Ecol, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria.
    de Angelis, P.
    Univ Tuscia, Dept Innovat Biol Agrofood & Forest Syst DIBAF, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy.
    Francois, F.
    Univ Liege, Unite Modelisat Climat & Cycles Biogeochim, B-4000 Liege, Belgium.
    Menzel, A.
    Tech Univ Munich, Chair Ecoclimatol, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany.
    Pereira, M
    Univ Evora, Dept Landscape Environm & Planning, P-7000671 Evora, Portugal.
    A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability2013In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 19, no 1, p. 75-89Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches.

  • 35. Rice, Stephen
    et al.
    Stoffel, Markus
    Turowski, Jens M
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Terr Ecosyst, Dept Environm Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Disturbance regimes at the interface of geomorphology and ecology2012In: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, ISSN 0197-9337, E-ISSN 1096-9837, Vol. 37, no 15, p. 1678-1682Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Geomorphological processes are an integral part of ecosystem functioning and ecosystem functioning affects geomorphological processes. Increasingly widespread acknowledgement of this simple idea is manifest in a vigorous research community engaged with questions that address the two-way interaction between biota and geomorphology, at a range of scales and in a variety of terrestrial and aquatic environments. Geomorphological disturbances are a core element of biogeomorphological interest, and although the disciplines of geomorphology and ecology have each developed languages and theories that help to explore, model and understand disturbance events, little attempt has been made to draw together these approaches. Following a brief review of these issues, we introduce thirteen papers that investigate the interactions and feedbacks between geomorphological disturbance regimes and ecosystem functions. These papers reveal the singularity of wildfire impacts, the importance of landsliding for carbon budgeting and of vegetation accumulation for landsliding, the zoogeomorphic role of iconic and Cinderella animals in fluvial geomorphology, biophysical interactions in aeolian, fluvial and torrential environments and the utility of living ecosystems as archives of geomorphic events. Most of these papers were first presented in a conference session at the European Geoscience Union General Assembly in 2010 and several others are from recent volumes of Earth Surface Processes and Landforms.

  • 36. Roderfeld, Hedwig
    et al.
    Blyth, Eleanor
    Dankers, Rutger
    Huse, Geir
    Slagstad, Dag
    Ellingsen, Ingrid
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    Lange, Manfred A.
    Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 283-303Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Koppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080.

  • 37.
    Sathre, Roger
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Built Environment and Energy Technology.
    Gustavsson, Leif
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Built Environment and Energy Technology.
    Truong, Nguyen Le
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Built Environment and Energy Technology.
    Climate effects of electricity production fuelled by coal, forest slash and municipal solid waste with and without carbon capture2017In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 122, p. 711-723Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyse the climate implications of producing electricity in large-scale conversion plants using coal, forest slash and municipal solid waste with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS). We calculate the primary energy, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emission profiles, and the cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) of different systems that produce the same amount of electricity. We find that using slash or waste for electricity production instead of coal somewhat increases the instantaneous CO2 emission from the power plant, but avoids significant subsequent emissions from decaying slash in forests or waste in landfills. For slash used instead of coal, we find robust near- and long-term reductions in total emissions and CRF. Climate effects of using waste instead of coal are more ambiguous: CRF is reduced when CCS is used, but without CCS there is little or no climate benefits of using waste directly for energy, assuming that landfill gas is recovered and used for electricity production. The application of CCS requires more fuel, but strongly reduces the CO2 emissions. The use of slash or waste together with CCS results in negative net emissions and CRF, i.e. global cooling.

  • 38.
    Scott, Daniel
    et al.
    Univ Waterloo, Canada.
    Hall, C. Michael
    Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Organisation and Entrepreneurship. Univ Canterbury, New Zealand;Univ Oulu, Finland.
    Gössling, Stefan
    Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Organisation and Entrepreneurship. Western Norway Res Inst, Norway.
    Global tourism vulnerability to climate change2019In: Annals of Tourism Research, ISSN 0160-7383, E-ISSN 1873-7722, Vol. 77, p. 49-61Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change will have far-reaching consequence for the future of tourism. A Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Tourism (CVIT) comprised of 27 indicators provides a transparent and systematic first analysis of the differential vulnerability of the tourism sector in 181 countries. Countries with the lowest vulnerability are found in western and northern Europe, central Asia, Canada and New Zealand. High sector vulnerability is found in Africa, Middle East, South Asia and Small Island Developing States. Vulnerability is highest in many countries where tourism represents the largest proportion of GDP and regions where tourism growth is expected to be the strongest over the coming decades. Climate change will pose an increasing barrier to tourism contributions to the Sustainable Development Goals.

  • 39.
    Simonsen, Morten
    et al.
    Western Norway Res Inst, Norway.
    Gössling, Stefan
    Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Organisation and Entrepreneurship. Western Norway Res Inst, Norway;Lund University, Sweden.
    Walnum, Hans Jakob
    Western Norway Res Inst, Norway.
    Cruise ship emissions in Norwegian waters: A geographical analysis2019In: Journal of Transport Geography, ISSN 0966-6923, E-ISSN 1873-1236, Vol. 78, p. 87-97Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Cruises are one of the fastest growing and most energy-intense tourism segments, accounting for significant emissions of greenhouse gases, as well as air pollutants such as nitrous oxide (NOx) and particulate matter (PM2.5). International measures to limit the sector's environmental impacts have so far had no significant effects. This highlights the importance of national, regional or port-specific policies, as implemented or in planning by countries such as Norway. In order to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of such policies, it is necessary to better understand emissions. This paper models the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2), NOx and PM2.5 emitted at sea and in port in Norwegian waters. Results show that 81 cruise ships of various sizes sailed Norwegian waters in 2017, consuming 129,798 t of fuel and emitting 0.4 Mt of CO2, as well as 7184 t of NOx and 132 t of PM2.5. About 14.6% of these pollutants are deposited in ports, particularly Bergen, Oslo and Stavanger. Findings also confirm considerable differences in the environmental performance of cruise ships, and can be used to design maritime policies forcing cruise operators to introduce cleaner technologies and to rethink operational practices.

  • 40.
    Sjöstedt, Emma
    University of Kalmar, Kalmar Maritime Academy.
    Infastrukturen och Klimatförändringarna: Hur klimatförändringarna kan påverka Kalmar2008Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 5 poäng / 7,5 hpStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    I denna uppsats har jag tagit reda på hur klimatförändringarna i framtiden kan komma att drabba Kalmar. Syftet med uppsatsen var att förklara för läsarna hur klimatförändringarna visar sig, hur de kan påverka städer och dessutom se hur de olika organisationerna som agerar inom kommunen och länet har planerat för detta och vilka kunskaper de har. Uppsatsen är skriven med en kvalitativ explanativ metod. Med hjälp av olika personer som jobbar inom berörda organisationer har jag kommit fram till att det största problemet som kan uppstå på grund av klimatförändringarna är översvämningar och stormar. Då Kalmar är en gammal stad som är uppbyggd nästan precis i strandkanten så skulle en permanent höjning av vattennivån medföra att stora områden i Kalmars centrala delar skulle kunna hamna under vatten. Redan nu kan det konstateras att Kalmar Hamn har problem med kajernas hållfasthet på grund av en urgröpning som är ett resultat av de senaste årens högvatten.

  • 41.
    Trondman, Anna-Kari
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of land-cover change in Europe from 11,500 years ago until present - A dataset suitable for climate modelling2014Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The major objective of this thesis was to produce descriptions of the land vegetation-cover in Europe for selected time windows of the Holocene (6000, 3000, 500, 200, and 50 calendar years before present (BP=1950)) that can be used in climate modelling. Land vegetation is part of the climate system; its changes influence climate through biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. Land use such as deforestation is one of the external forcings of climate change.  Reliable descriptions of vegetation cover in the past are needed to study land cover-climate interactions and understand the possible effects of present and future land-use changes on future climate.

    We tested and applied the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites) model to estimate past vegetation in percentage cover over Europe using pollen records from lake sediments and peat bogs. The model corrects for the biases of pollen data due to intraspecific differences in pollen productivity and pollen dispersion and deposition in lakes and bogs. For the land-cover reconstructions in Europe and the Baltic Sea catchment we used 636 (grouped by 1˚x1˚ grid cells) and 339 (grouped by biogeographical regions) pollen records, respectively. The REVEALS reconstructions were performed for 25 tree, shrub and herb taxa. The grid-based REVEALS reconstructions were then interpolated using a set of statistical spatial models.

    We show that the choice of input parameters for the REVEALS application does not affect the ranking of the REVEALS estimates significantly, except when entomophilous taxa are included. We demonstrate that pollen data from multiple small sites provide REVEALS estimates that are comparable to those obtained with pollen data from large lakes, however with larger error estimates. The distance between the small sites does not influence the results significantly as long as the sites are at a sufficient distance from vegetation zone boundaries. The REVEALS estimates of open land for Europe and the Baltic Sea catchment indicate that the degree of landscape openness during the Holocene was significantly higher than previously interpreted from pollen percentages. The relationship between Pinus and Picea and between evergreen and summer-green taxa may also differ strongly whether it is based on REVEALS percentage cover or pollen percentages. These results provide entirely new insights on Holocene vegetation history and help understanding questions related to resource management by humans and biodiversity in the past. The statistical spatial models provide for the first time pollen-based descriptions of past land cover that can be used in climate modelling and studies of land cover-climate interactions in the past.

  • 42.
    Wallin, Pontus
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Vart bör Kiribati, Tuvalu och Marshallöarnas befolkningar ta vägen?: En normativ analys inom ämnet för klimatförändringarnas utmaningar2015Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The effects of anthropogenic climate change are becoming more and more visible as being highlighted by scientists, politicians and media. The causes of droughts, floods, melting ice caps and rising sea levels can all partially be traced back to human activities. In this study, I examine where the future climate refugees of Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands should go when inhabitants of these low lying island nations are forced to leave their disappearing territories due to sea level rise. By using a normative method of analysis i egentlig mening, arguments deriving from certain values will be presented to confront the problem. These values originate from Edward A. Page’s theories concerning justice in sharing the burdens of climate change. Combined with a complementary utilitaristic value, the conclusion is that Australia is most suitable to host future climate refugees of these particular island nations, while the justice based values alone concludes the US as its preferred choice. In parallel, normative political theory will be evaluated regarding its functionality in the subject of global climate questions. Hence this study contains two purposes; to argue where the islanders should go, and whether a normative methodology is suitable when solving such a problem.

  • 43.
    Werner, Kirstin
    et al.
    Ohio State Univ, USA ; Korea Polar Res Inst, South Korea.
    Fritz, Michael
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany ; Univ Utrecht, Netherlands.
    Morata, Nathalie
    Univ Brest, France ; Akvaplan Niva, Norway.
    Keil, Kathrin
    Inst Adv Sustainabil Studies, Germany.
    Pavlov, Alexey
    Norwegian Polar Res Inst, Norway.
    Peeken, Ilka
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany.
    Nikolopoulos, Anna
    AquaBiota Water Res, Sweden.
    Findlay, Helen S.
    Plymouth Marine Lab, UK.
    Kedra, Monika
    Polish Acad Sci, Poland.
    Majaneva, Sanna
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Renner, Angelika
    Inst Marine Res, Norway.
    Hendricks, Stefan
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany.
    Jacquot, Mathilde
    Univ Bretagne Occidentale, France.
    Nicolaus, Marcel
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany.
    O'Regan, Matt
    Stockholm University.
    Sampei, Makoto
    Hiroshima Univ, Japan.
    Wegner, Carolyn
    GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res, Germany.
    Arctic in Rapid Transition: Priorities for the future of marine and coastal research in the Arctic2016In: Polar Science, ISSN 1873-9652, E-ISSN 1876-4428, Vol. 10, no 3, p. 364-373Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding and responding to the rapidly occurring environmental changes in the Arctic over the past few decades require new approaches in science. This includes improved collaborations within the scientific community but also enhanced dialogue between scientists and societal stakeholders, especially with Arctic communities. As a contribution to the Third International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARPIII), the Arctic in Rapid Transition (ART) network held an international workshop in France, in October 2014, in order to discuss high-priority requirements for future Arctic marine and coastal research from an early-career scientists (ECS) perspective. The discussion encompassed a variety of research fields, including topics of oceanographic conditions, sea-ice monitoring, marine biodiversity, land-ocean interactions, and geological reconstructions, as well as law and governance issues. Participants of the workshop strongly agreed on the need to enhance interdisciplinarity in order to collect comprehensive knowledge about the modern and past Arctic Ocean's geo-ecological dynamics. Such knowledge enables improved predictions of Arctic developments and provides the basis for elaborate decision-making on future actions under plausible environmental and climate scenarios in the high northern latitudes. Priority research sheets resulting from the workshop's discussions were distributed during the ICARPIII meetings in April 2015 in Japan, and are publicly available online. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. and NIPR. All rights reserved.

  • 44.
    Wolf, Annett
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    Callaghan, Terry V.
    Larson, Karin
    Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 51-73Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is used to project transient impacts of changes in climate on vegetation of the Barents Region. We incorporate additional plant functional types, i.e. shrubs and defined different types of open ground vegetation, to improve the representation of arctic vegetation in the global model. We use future climate projections as well as control climate data for 1981-2000 from a regional climate model (REMO) that assumes a development of atmospheric CO(2)-concentration according to the B2-SRES scenario [IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution working group I to the Third assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)]. The model showed a generally good fit with observed data, both qualitatively when model outputs were compared to vegetation maps and quantitatively when compared with observations of biomass, NPP and LAI. The main discrepancy between the model output and observed vegetation is the overestimation of forest abundance for the northern parts of the Kola Peninsula that cannot be explained by climatic factors alone. Over the next hundred years, the model predicted an increase in boreal needle leaved evergreen forest, as extensions northwards and upwards in mountain areas, and as an increase in biomass, NPP and LAI. The model also projected that shade-intolerant broadleaved summergreen trees will be found further north and higher up in the mountain areas. Surprisingly, shrublands will decrease in extent as they are replaced by forest at their southern margins and restricted to areas high up in the mountains and to areas in northern Russia. Open ground vegetation will largely disappear in the Scandinavian mountains. Also counter-intuitively, tundra will increase in abundance due to the occupation of previously unvegetated areas in the northern part of the Barents Region. Spring greening will occur earlier and LAI will increase. Consequently, albedo will decrease both in summer and winter time, particularly in the Scandinavian mountains (by up to 18%). Although this positive feedback to climate could be offset to some extent by increased CO(2) drawdown from vegetation, increasing soil respiration results in NEE close to zero, so we cannot conclude to what extent or whether the Barents Region will become a source or a sink of CO(2).

  • 45.
    Wolf, Annett
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    Kozlov, Mikhail V.
    Callaghan, Terry V.
    Impact of non-outbreak insect damage on vegetation in northern Europe will be greater than expected during a changing climate2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 91-106Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background insect herbivory, in addition to insect outbreaks, can have an important long term influence on the performance of tree species. Since a projected warmer climate may favour insect herbivores, we use a dynamic ecosystem model to investigate the impacts of background herbivory on vegetation growth and productivity, as well as distribution and associated changes in terrestrial ecosystems of northern Europe. We used the GUESS ecosystem modelling framework and a simple linear model for including the leaf area loss of Betula pubescens in relation to mean July temperature. We tested the sensitivity of the responses of the simulated ecosystems to different, but realistic, degrees of insect damage. Predicted temperature increases are likely to enhance the potential insect impacts on vegetation. The impacts are strongest in the eastern areas, where potential insect damage to B. pubescens can increase by 4-5%. The increase in insect damage to B. pubescens results in a reduction of total birch leaf area (LAI), total birch biomass and birch productivity (Net Primary Production). This effect is stronger than the insect damage to leaf area alone would suggest, due to its second order effect on the competition between tree species. The model’s demonstration that background herbivory may cause changes in vegetation structure suggests that insect damage, generally neglected by vegetation models, can change predictions of future forest composition. Carbon fluxes and albedo are only slightly influenced by background insect herbivory, indicating that background insect damage is of minor importance for estimating the feedback of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

  • 46.
    Xu, Qinghai
    et al.
    Hebei Normal University, China.
    Zhang, Shengrui
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Li, Manyue
    Hebei Normal University, China.
    Cao, Xianyong
    Hebei Normal University, China ; Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany.
    Tian, Fang
    Hebei Normal University, China ; Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany.
    Li, Furong
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Studies of modern pollen assemblages for pollen dispersal- deposition- preservation process understanding and for pollen-based reconstructions of past vegetation, climate, and human impact: A review based on case studies in China2016In: Quaternary Science Reviews, ISSN 0277-3791, E-ISSN 1873-457X, Vol. 149, p. 151-166Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Fossil pollen, as a direct proxy record of past vegetation, and indirect proxy record of past climate, plays an essential role in revealing and reconstructing past vegetation and climate. However, relationships between pollen, vegetation and climate are not linear, hence quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation and climate based on pollen records are not straightforward, and results may be highly contradictory and difficult to interpret. One of the main causes of discrepancies between results has been the lack of comprehensive and systematical studies on modern pollen dispersal and deposition processes, particularly on the quantification of these processes. Based on empirical studies performed in China over the last 30 years, this paper provides the state-of-the-art of the understanding of pollen dispersal and deposition processes in China and the remaining questions to be investigated. We show that major progress has been achieved in the study of modern pollen dispersal and deposition processes, and in the application of models of the pollen-vegetation-climate relationships for quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation and climate. However, several issues are not entirely solved or understood yet, such as how to quantify the reworking and re-deposition of pollen grains in quaternary alluvial sediments, the influence of pollen preservation on pollen assemblages, and human impact on vegetation. Even so, the progress made during the last decades makes it possible to achieve significantly more precise and informative reconstructions of past vegetation, land-use and climate in China than was possible earlier.

  • 47.
    Yurova, Alla
    et al.
    Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, Solvegatan 12, SE-22362 Lund, Sweden..
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. Linnaeus University.
    Sagerfors, Jorgen
    Nilsson, Mats
    Variations in net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide in a boreal mire: Modeling mechanisms linked to water table position2007In: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 112, no G2Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    [1] In mires, which occupy large areas of the boreal region, net ecosystem CO2 exchange ( NEE) rates vary significantly over various timescales. In order to examine the effect of one of the most influencing variables, the water table depth, on NEE the general ecosystem model GUESS-ROMUL was modified to predict mire daily CO2 exchange rates. A simulation was conducted for a lawn, the most common microtopographical feature of boreal oligotrophic minerotrophic mires. The results were validated against eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements from Degero Stormyr, northern Sweden, obtained during the period 2001 - 2003. Both measurements and model simulations revealed that CO2 uptake was clearly controlled by interactions between water table depth and temperature. Maximum uptake occurred when the water table level was between 10 and 20 cm and the air temperature was above 15 degrees C. When the water table was higher, the CO2 uptake rate was lower, owing to reduced rates of photosynthetic carbon fixation. When the water table was lower, NEE decreased owing to the increased rate of decomposition of organic matter. When the water table level was between 10 and 20 cm, the NEE was quite stable and relatively insensitive to both changes within this range and any air temperature changes above + 15 degrees C. The optimal water table level range for NEE corresponds to that characteristic of mire lawn plant communities, indicating that the annual NEE will not change dramatically if climatic conditions remain within the optimal range for the current plant community.

  • 48. Zockler, Christoph
    et al.
    Miles, Lera
    Fish, Lucy
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    Rees, Gareth
    Danks, Fiona
    Potential impact of climate change and reindeer density on tundra indicator species in the Barents Sea region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 119-130Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of habitats and thus the distribution of species connected with these habitats in the terrestrial Barents Sea region. It was hypothesised that wild species connected with the tundra and open-land biome may be particularly at risk as forest area expands. Fourteen species of birds were identified as useful indicators for the biodiversity dependent upon this biome. By bringing together species distribution information with the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model, and with estimates of future wild and domestic reindeer density, potential impacts on these species between the present time and 2080 were assessed. Over this period there was a net loss of open land within the current breeding range of most bird species. Grazing reindeer were modelled as increasing the amount of open land retained for nine of the tundra bird species.

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