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  • 1.
    Andersson, Agneta
    et al.
    Umeå University.
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Ripszam, Matyas
    Umeå University.
    Rowe, Owen
    Umeå University.
    Wikner, Johan
    Umeå university.
    Haglund, Peter
    Umeå University.
    Eilola, Kari
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Legrand, Catherine
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Figueroa, Daniela
    Umeå University.
    Paczkowska, Joanna
    Umeå University.
    Lindehoff, Elin
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Tysklind, Mats
    Umeå University.
    Elmgren, Ragnar
    Department of Ecology.
    Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management2015In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, no Supplement 3, p. S345-S356Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 degrees C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase similar to 30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  • 2.
    Bais, A. F.
    et al.
    Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Greece.
    Lucas, R. M.
    Australian Natl Univ, Australia.
    Bornman, J. F.
    Curtin Univ, Australia.
    Williamson, C. E.
    Miami Univ, USA.
    Sulzberger, B.
    Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Switzerland.
    Austin, A. T.
    Univ Buenos Aires, Argentina;IFEVA CONICET, Argentina.
    Wilson, S. R.
    Univ Wollongong, Australia.
    Andrady, A. L.
    North Carolina State Univ, USA.
    Bernhard, G.
    Biospher Inc, USA.
    McKenzie, R. L.
    NIWA, New Zealand.
    Aucamp, P. J.
    Ptersa Environm Consultants, South Africa.
    Madronich, S.
    Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, USA.
    Neale, R. E.
    Royal Brisbane Hosp, Australia.
    Yazar, S.
    Univ Western Australia, Australia.
    Young, A. R.
    Kings Coll London, UK.
    de Gruijl, F. R.
    Leiden Univ, Netherlands.
    Norval, M.
    Univ Edinburgh, UK.
    Takizawa, Y.
    Akita Univ, Japan.
    Barnes, P. W.
    Loyola Univ, USA.
    Robson, T. M.
    Univ Helsinki, Finland.
    Robinson, S. A.
    Univ Wollongong, Australia.
    Ballare, C. L.
    Univ Buenos Aires, Argentina;IFEVA CONICET, Argentina.
    Flint, S. D.
    Univ Idaho, USA.
    Neale, P. J.
    Smithsonian Environm Res Ctr, USA.
    Hylander, Samuel
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Rose, K. C.
    Rensselaer Polytech Inst, USA.
    Wängber, S. -A
    University of Gothenburg.
    Häder, D. -P
    Friedrich-Alexander Univ, Germany.
    Worrest, R. C.
    Columbia Univ, USA.
    Zepp, R. G.
    US EPA, USA.
    Paul, N. D.
    Univ Lancaster, UK.
    Cory, R. M.
    Univ Michigan, USA.
    Solomon, K. R.
    Univ Guelph, Canada.
    Longstreth, J.
    Inst Global Risk Res, USA.
    Pandey, K. K.
    Inst Wood Sci & Technol, India.
    Redhwi, H. H.
    King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals, Saudi Arabia.
    Torikaiaj, A.
    Mat Life Soc Japan, Japan.
    Heikkila, A. M.
    Finnish Meteorol Inst R&D Climate Res, Finland.
    Environmental effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 20172018In: Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences, ISSN 1474-905X, E-ISSN 1474-9092, Vol. 17, no 2, p. 127-179Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels of experts that inform the Parties to the Montreal Protocol. The EEAP focuses on the effects of UV radiation on human health, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, air quality, and materials, as well as on the interactive effects of UV radiation and global climate change. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously held. Because of the Montreal Protocol, there are now indications of the beginnings of a recovery of stratospheric ozone, although the time required to reach levels like those before the 1960s is still uncertain, particularly as the effects of stratospheric ozone on climate change and vice versa, are not yet fully understood. Some regions will likely receive enhanced levels of UV radiation, while other areas will likely experience a reduction in UV radiation as ozone- and climate-driven changes affect the amounts of UV radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Like the other Panels, the EEAP produces detailed Quadrennial Reports every four years; the most recent was published as a series of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter Update Reports of recent and relevant scientific findings. The most recent of these was for 2016 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2017, 16, 107-145). The present 2017 Update Report assesses some of the highlights and new insights about the interactive nature of the direct and indirect effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change. A full 2018 Quadrennial Assessment, will be made available in 2018/2019.

  • 3.
    Barnes, Paul W.
    et al.
    Loyola Univ, USA..
    Williamson, Craig E.
    Miami Univ, USA.
    Lucas, Robyn M.
    Australian Natl Univ, Australia.
    Robinson, Sharon A.
    Univ Wollongong, Australia.
    Madronich, Sasha
    Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, USA.
    Paul, Nigel D.
    Univ Lancaster, UK.
    Bornman, Janet F.
    Murdoch Univ, Australia.
    Bais, Alkiviadis F.
    Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Greece.
    Sulzberger, Barbara
    Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol Eawag, Switzerland.
    Wilson, Stephen R.
    Univ Wollongong, Australia.
    Andrady, Anthony L.
    North Carolina State Univ, USA.
    McKenzie, Richard L.
    Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, New Zealand.
    Neale, Patrick J.
    Smithsonian Environm Res Ctr, USA.
    Austin, Amy T.
    Univ Buenos Aires, Argentina.
    Bernhard, Germar H.
    Biospher Inc, USA.
    Solomon, Keith R.
    Univ Guelph, Canada.
    Neale, Rachel E.
    QIMR Berghofer Med Res Inst, Australia.
    Young, Paul J.
    Univ Lancaster, UK.
    Norval, Mary
    Univ Edinburgh, UK.
    Rhodes, Lesley E.
    Univ Manchester, UK.
    Hylander, Samuel
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science. Salford Royal NHS Fdn Trust, UK.
    Rose, Kevin C.
    Rensselaer Polytech Inst, USA.
    Longstreth, Janice
    Inst Global Risk Res, USA.
    Aucamp, Pieter J.
    Ptersa Environm Consultants, South Africa.
    Ballare, Carlos L.
    Univ Buenos Aires, Argentina.
    Cory, Rose M.
    Univ Michigan, USA.
    Flint, Stephan D.
    Univ Idaho, USA.
    de Gruijl, Frank R.
    Leiden Univ, Netherlands.
    Haeder, Donat-P
    Friedrich Alexander Univ, Germany.
    Heikkila, Anu M.
    Finnish Meteorol Inst R&D Climate Res, Finland.
    Jansen, Marcel A. K.
    Univ Coll Cork, Ireland.
    Pandey, Krishna K.
    Inst Wood Sci & Technol, India.
    Robson, T. Matthew
    Univ Helsinki, Finland.
    Sinclair, Craig A.
    Canc Council Victoria, Australia.
    Wangberg, Sten-Ake
    University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Worrest, Robert C.
    Columbia Univ, USA.
    Yazar, Seyhan
    Univ Western Australia, Australia.
    Young, Antony R.
    Kings Coll London, UK.
    Zepp, Richard G.
    US EPA, USA.
    Ozone depletion, ultraviolet radiation, climate change and prospects for a sustainable future2019In: Nature Sustainability, E-ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 2, no 7, p. 569-579Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Changes in stratospheric ozone and climate over the past 40-plus years have altered the solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation conditions at the Earth's surface. Ozone depletion has also contributed to climate change across the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are interacting in complex ways to affect human health, food and water security, and ecosystem services. Many adverse effects of high UV exposure have been avoided thanks to the Montreal Protocol with its Amendments and Adjustments, which have effectively controlled the production and use of ozone-depleting substances. This international treaty has also played an important role in mitigating climate change. Climate change is modifying UV exposure and affecting how people and ecosystems respond to UV; these effects will become more pronounced in the future. The interactions between stratospheric ozone, climate and UV radiation will therefore shift over time; however, the Montreal Protocol will continue to have far-reaching benefits for human well-being and environmental sustainability.

  • 4.
    Bergh, Johan
    et al.
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Nilsson, Urban
    Kjartansson, Bjarki
    Karlsson, Matts
    Impact of climate change on the productivity of Silver birch, Norway spruce and Scots pine stands in Sweden with economic implications for timber production2010In: Ecological Bulletins, ISSN 0346-6868, Vol. 53, no 16, p. 185-195Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Blennow, Kristina
    et al.
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Andersson, Mikael
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Bergh, Johan
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Sallnäs, Ola
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Olofsson, Erika
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest2010In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 99, no 1-2, p. 261-278Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071–2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961–1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15–40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071–2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.

  • 6.
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    et al.
    Åbo Akademi University, Finland.
    Andersson, AgnetaUmeå University.Elmgren, RagnarStockholm University.Bidleman, TerryUmeå University.Blenckner, ThorstenStockholm University.Gorokhova, ElenaStockholm University.Legrand, CatherineLinnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.Wikner, JohanUmeå University.
    Special Issue: Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change2015Collection (editor) (Refereed)
  • 7.
    Bunse, Carina
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Lundin, Daniel
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Karlsson, Christofer M. G.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Akram, Neelam
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Vila-Costa, Maria
    Centre d’Estudis Avançats de Blanes-CSIC, Spain.
    Palovaara, Joakim
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Svensson, Lovisa
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Holmfeldt, Karin
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    González, José M.
    University of La Laguna, Spain.
    Calvo, Eva
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Pelejero, Carles
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Marrasé, Cèlia
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Dopson, Mark
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Gasol, Josep
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Pinhassi, Jarone
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Response of marine bacterioplankton pH homeostasis gene expression to elevated CO22016In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 6, no 5, p. 483-487Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human-induced ocean acidification impacts marine life. Marine bacteria are major drivers of biogeochemical nutrient cycles and energy fluxes1; hence, understanding their performance under projected climate change scenarios is crucial for assessing ecosystem functioning. Whereas genetic and physiological responses of phytoplankton to ocean acidification are being disentangled2, 3, 4, corresponding functional responses of bacterioplankton to pH reduction from elevated CO2 are essentially unknown. Here we show, from metatranscriptome analyses of a phytoplankton bloom mesocosm experiment, that marine bacteria responded to lowered pH by enhancing the expression of genes encoding proton pumps, such as respiration complexes, proteorhodopsin and membrane transporters. Moreover, taxonomic transcript analysis showed that distinct bacterial groups expressed different pH homeostasis genes in response to elevated CO2. These responses were substantial for numerous pH homeostasis genes under low-chlorophyll conditions (chlorophyll a <2.5 μg l−1); however, the changes in gene expression under high-chlorophyll conditions (chlorophyll a >20 μg l−1) were low. Given that proton expulsion through pH homeostasis mechanisms is energetically costly, these findings suggest that bacterioplankton adaptation to ocean acidification could have long-term effects on the economy of ocean ecosystems.

  • 8. Bäckstrand, Karin
    et al.
    Lövbrand, Eva
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Planting Trees to Mitigate Climate Change: Contested Discourses of Ecological Modernization, Green Governmentality and Civic Environmentalism2006In: Global Environmental Politics, ISSN 1536-0091, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 50-75Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9.
    Cao, Xianyong
    et al.
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany;Chinese Acad Sci, Peoples Republic of China.
    Tian, Fang
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany.
    Li, Furong
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Rudaya, Natalia
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany;Russian Acad Sci, Russia;Univ Potsdam, Germany.
    Xu, Qinghai
    Hebei Normal Univ, Peoples Republic of China.
    Herzschuh, Ulrike
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany;Univ Potsdam, Germany.
    Pollen-based quantitative land-cover reconstruction for northern Asia covering the last 40 ka cal BP2019In: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 15, no 4, p. 1503-1536Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We collected the available relative pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) for 27 major pollen taxa from Eurasia and applied them to estimate plant abundances during the last 40 ka cal BP (calibrated thousand years before present) using pollen counts from 203 fossil pollen records in northern Asia (north of 40 degrees N). These pollen records were organized into 42 site groups and regional mean plant abundances calculated using the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites) model. Time-series clustering, constrained hierarchical clustering, and detrended canonical correspondence analysis were performed to investigate the regional pattern, time, and strength of vegetation changes, respectively. Reconstructed regional plant functional type (PFT) components for each site group are generally consistent with modern vegetation in that vegetation changes within the regions are characterized by minor changes in the abundance of PFTs rather than by an increase in new PFTs, particularly during the Holocene. We argue that pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant abundances should be a more reliable reflection of the vegetation as pollen may overestimate the turnover, particularly when a high pollen producer invades areas dominated by low pollen producers. Comparisons with vegetation-independent climate records show that climate change is the primary factor driving land-cover changes at broad spatial and temporal scales. Vegetation changes in certain regions or periods, however, could not be explained by direct climate change, e.g. inland Siberia, where a sharp increase in evergreen conifer tree abundance occurred at ca. 7-8 ka cal BP despite an unchanging climate, potentially reflecting their response to complex climate-permafrost-fire-vegetation interactions and thus a possible long-term lagged climate response.

  • 10.
    Eriksson, Ljusk Ola
    et al.
    Department of Forest Resource Management, SLU.
    Gustavsson, Leif
    Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för teknik och hållbar utveckling.
    Hänninen, Riitta
    METLA .
    Kallio, Maarit
    METLA .
    Lyhykäinen, Henna
    University of Helsinki.
    Pingoud, Kim
    VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.
    Pohjola, Johanna
    METLA .
    Sathre, Roger
    Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för teknik och hållbar utveckling.
    Solberg, Birger
    UMB .
    Svanaes, Jarle
    Norsk Treteknisk Institutt.
    Valsta, Lauri
    University of Helsinki.
    Climate change mitigation through increased wood use in the European construction sector - towards an integrated modelling framework2012In: European Journal of Forest Research, ISSN 1612-4669, E-ISSN 1612-4677, Vol. 131, no 1, p. 131-144Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008-2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2-0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing

  • 11.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller Univ, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Does risk communication really decrease cooperation in climate change mitigation?2018In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 149, no 2, p. 147-158Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Effective communication of risks involved in the climate change discussion is crucial and despite ambitious protection policies, the possibility of irreversible consequences actually occurring can only be diminished but never ruled out completely. We present a laboratory experiment that studies how residual risk of failure of climate change policies affects willingness to contribute to such policies. Despite prevailing views on people's risk aversion, we found that contributions were higher at least in the final part of treatments including a residual risk. We interpret this as the product of a psychological process where residual risk puts participants into an "alarm mode," keeping their contributions high. We discuss the broad practical implications this might have on the real-world communication of climate change.

  • 12.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller University, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Experimental evidence of an environmental attitude-behavior gap in high-cost situations2019In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 166, p. 1-12, article id 106434Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    So far, there has been mixed evidence in the literature regarding the relationship between environmental attitudes and actual `green' actions, something known as the attitude-behavior gap. This raises the question of when attitudes can actually work as a lever to promote environmental objectives, such as climate change mitigation, and, conversely, when other factors would be more effective. This paper presents an online experiment with real money at stake and real-world consequences designed to test the effect of environmental attitudes on behavior under various conditions. We found that environmental attitudes affected behavior only in low-cost situations. This finding is consistent with the low-cost hypothesis of environmental behavior postulating that concerned individuals will undertake low-cost actions in order to reduce the cognitive dissonance  between their attitudes and rational realization of the environmental impact of their behavior but avoid higher-cost actions despite their greater potential as far as environmental protection. This finding has important consequences for the design of more effective climate policies in a democratic context as it puts limits on what can be achieved by raising environmental concern alone.

    The full text will be freely available from 2021-09-01 08:00
  • 13.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller University, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Investing into climate change mitigation despite the risk of failure2019In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 154, no 3-4, p. 453-460Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to convince both policy makers and the general public to engage in climate change mitigation activities, it is crucial to communicate the inherent risks in an effective way. Due to the complexity of the system, mitigation activities cannot completely rule out the possibility of the climate reaching a dangerous tipping point but can only reduce it to some unavoidable residual risk level. We present an online experiment based on a sample of US citizens and designed to improve our understanding of how the presence of such residual risk affects the willingness to invest into climate change mitigation. We found that, far from reducing them, the presence of residual risk actually increases investments into mitigation activities. This result suggests that scientists and policy makers should consider being more transparent about communicating the residual risks entailed by such initiatives.

  • 14.
    Forsman, Anders
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Berggren, Hanna
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Åström, Mats E.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Larsson, Per
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    To what extent can existing research help project climate change impacts on biodiversity in aquatic environments?: A review of methodological approaches2016In: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, E-ISSN 2077-1312, Vol. 4, no 4, article id 75Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is broadly accepted that continued global warming will pose a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. But how reliable are current projections regarding consequences of future climate change for biodiversity? To address this issue, we review the methodological approaches in published studies of how life in marine and freshwater environments responds to temperature shifts. We analyze and compare observational field surveys and experiments performed either in the laboratory or under natural conditions in the wild, the type of response variables considered, the number of species investigated, study duration, and the nature and magnitude of experimental temperature manipulations. The observed patterns indicate that, due to limitations of study design, ecological and evolutionary responses of individuals, populations, species, and ecosystems to temperature change were in many cases difficult to establish, and causal mechanism(s) often remained ambiguous. We also discovered that the thermal challenge in experimental studies was 10,000 times more severe than reconstructed estimates of past and projections of future warming of the oceans, and that temperature manipulations also tended to increase in magnitude in more recent studies. These findings raise some concerns regarding the extent to which existing research can increase our understanding of how higher temperatures associated with climate change will affect life in aquatic environments. In view of our review findings, we discuss the trade-off between realism and methodological tractability. We also propose a series of suggestions and directions towards developing a scientific agenda for improving the validity and inference space of future research efforts.

  • 15.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Fire as part of the climate system2013In: Public Service Review: Europe, no 25, p. 368-369Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 16.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Understanding climate forcing2012In: Public Service Review: Europe, no 24, p. 194-195Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 17.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Kleinen, Thomas
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Nielsen, Anne Birgitte
    Lund University.
    Bergh, Johan
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Forestry and Wood Technology.
    Kaplan, Jed
    University of Lausanne, Switzerland.
    Poska, Anneli
    Lund University.
    Sandström, Camilla
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Trondman, Anna-Kari
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Wramneby, Anna
    Lund University.
    Causes of Regional Change: Land Cover2015In: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin / [ed] The BACC II Author team, Springer, 2015, p. 453-477Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings for which the net direction of the climate response over the last two centuries is still not known. The uncertainty is due to the often counteracting temperature responses to the many biogeophysical effects and to the biogeochemical versus biogeophysical effects. Palaeoecological studies show that the major transformation of the landscape by anthropogenic activities in the southern zone of the Baltic Sea basin occurred between 6000 and 3000/2500 cal year BP. The only modelling study of the biogeophysical effects of past ALCCs on regional climate in north-western Europe suggests that deforestation between 6000 and 200 cal year BP may have caused significant change in winter and summer temperature. There is no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea area since AD 1850 would have been a major cause of the recent climate warming in the region through a positive biogeochemical feedback. Several model studies suggest that boreal reforestation might not be an effective climate warming mitigation tool as it might lead to increased warming through biogeophysical processes.

  • 18.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    Poska, Anneli
    Trondman, Anna-Kari
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Mazier, Florence
    Kaplan, Jed O.
    Land cover-climate interactions in the past for the understanding of current and future climate change: the LANDCLIM project2014In: Proceedings of the Global Land Project 2nd Open Science Meeting, Berlin, March 19th – 21st, 2014: Land transformations : between global challenges and local realities, Amsterdam/Berlin/Sao Paulo: Global Land Project , 2014, p. 229-230Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The LANDCLIM (LAND cover – CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) project has the overall aim to quantify human-induced changes in regional vegetation/land-cover in northwestern and western Europe North of the Alps during the Holocene (the last 11 500 years) with the purpose to evaluate and further refine the dynamic vegetation model LPJGUESS and the regional climate model RCA3, and to assess the possible effects on the climate development of two historical processes, i.e. climate-driven changes in vegetation and human-induced changes in land cover, via the influence of forested versus non-forested land cover on shortwave albedo, energy and water fluxes. Accounting for land surface changes may be particularly important for regional climate modeling, as the biophysical feedbacks operate at this scale. The aims of the LANDCLIM project are achieved by applying a model-data comparison scheme. The REVEALS model is used to estimate land cover from pollen data for 10 plant functional types (PFTs) and 5 time windows of the Holocene - modern time, 200 BP, 500 BP, 3000 BP and 6000 BP. The REVEALS estimates are then compared to the LPJGUESS simulations of potential vegetation and with the ALCC scenarios of Kaplan et al. (KK10) and Klein-Goldewijk et al. (HYDE). The alternative descriptions of past land-cover are then used in the regional climate model RCA3 to study the effect of anthropogenic land-cover on climate. The model-simulated climate is finally compared to palaeoclimate proxies other than pollen. The REVEALS estimates demonstrate that the study region was characterized by larger areas of human-induced openland than pollen percentages suggest, and that these areas were already very large by 3000 BP. The KK10 scenarios were found to be closer to the REVEALS estimates than the HYDE scenarios. LPJGUESS simulates potential climate-induced vegetation. The results from the RCA3 runs at 200 BP and 6000 BP using the LPJGUESS and KK10 land-cover descriptions indicate that past human-induced deforestation did produce a decrease in summer temperatures of >0 - 1.5°C due to biogeophysical processes, and that the degree of decrease differed between regions; the effect of human-induced deforestation on winter temperatures was shown to be more complex. The positive property of forests as CO2 sinks is well known. But afforestation (i.e. planting forest) may also have the opposite effect of warming the climate through biogeophysical processes. Careful studies on land cover-climate interactions are essential to understand the net result of all possible processes related to anthropogenic land-cover change so that relevant landscape management can be implemented for mitigation of climate warming.

  • 19.
    Griffiths, Natalie A.
    et al.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Hanson, Paul J.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Ricciuto, Daniel M.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Iversen, Colleen M.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Jensen, Anna M.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Forestry and Wood Technology. Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Malhotra, Avni
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    McFarlane, Karis J.
    Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, USA.
    Norby, Richard J.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Sargsyan, Khachik
    Sandia Natl Labs, USA.
    Sebestyen, Stephen D.
    USDA Forest Serv, USA.
    Shi, Xiaoying
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Walker, Anthony P.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Ward, Eric J.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Warren, Jeffrey M.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Weston, David J.
    Oak Ridge Natl Lab, USA.
    Temporal and Spatial Variation in Peatland Carbon Cycling and Implications for Interpreting Responses of an Ecosystem-Scale Warming Experiment2017In: Soil Science Society of America Journal, ISSN 0361-5995, E-ISSN 1435-0661, Vol. 81, no 6, p. 1668-1688Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We are conducting a large-scale, long-term climate change response experiment in an ombrotrophic peat bog in Minnesota to evaluate the effects of warming and elevated CO2 on ecosystem processes using empirical and modeling approaches. To better frame future assessments of peatland responses to climate change, we characterized and compared spatial vs. temporal variation in measured C cycle processes and their environmental drivers. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis of a peatland C model to identify how variation in ecosystem parameters contributes to model prediction uncertainty. High spatial variability in C cycle processes resulted in the inability to determine if the bog was a C source or sink, as the 95% confidence interval ranged from a source of 50 g C m(-2) yr(-1) to a sink of 67 g C m(-2) yr(-1). Model sensitivity analysis also identified that spatial variation in tree and shrub photosynthesis, allocation characteristics, and maintenance respiration all contributed to large variations in the pretreatment estimates of net C balance. Variation in ecosystem processes can be more thoroughly characterized if more measurements are collected for parameters that are highly variable over space and time, and especially if those measurements encompass environmental gradients that may be driving the spatial and temporal variation (e.g., hummock vs. hollow microtopographies, and wet vs. dry years). Together, the coupled modeling and empirical approaches indicate that variability in C cycle processes and their drivers must be taken into account when interpreting the significance of experimental warming and elevated CO2 treatments.

  • 20.
    Kerren, Andreas
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Computer Science.
    Jusufi, Ilir
    University of California, USA.
    Liu, Jiayi
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Computer Science.
    Multi-Scale Trend Visualization of Long-Term Temperature Data Sets2014In: Proceedings of SIGRAD 2014, Visual Computing, June 12-13, 2014, Göteborg, Sweden / [ed] M. Obaid, D. Sjölie and M. Fjeld, Linköping University Electronic Press, 2014, p. 91-94Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The analysis and presentation of climate observations is a traditional application of various visualization approaches. The available data sets are usually huge and were typically collected over a long period of time. In this paper, we focus on the visualization of a specific aspect of climate data: our visualization tool was primarily developed for providing an overview of temperature measurements for one location over decades or even centuries. In order to support an efficient overview and visual representation of the data, it is based on a region-oriented metaphor that includes various granularity levels and aggregation features. 

  • 21.
    Kumarathunge, Dushan P.
    et al.
    Western Sydney University, Australia;Coconut Research Institute of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka.
    Medlyn, Belinda E.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Drake, John E.
    State University of New York, USA.
    Tjoelker, Mark G.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Aspinwall, Michael J.
    University of North Florida, USA.
    Battaglia, Michael
    CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Australia.
    Cano, Francisco J.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Carter, Kelsey R.
    Michigan Technological University, USA.
    Cavaleri, Molly A.
    Michigan Technological University, USA.
    Cernusak, Lucas A.
    James Cook University, Australia.
    Chambers, Jeffrey Q.
    University of California Berkeley, USA.
    Crous, Kristine Y.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    De Kauwe, Martin G.
    University of New South Wales, Australia.
    Dillaway, Dylan N.
    Unity College, USA.
    Dreyer, Erwin
    Université de Lorraine, France.
    Ellsworth, David S.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Ghannoum, Oula
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Han, Qingmin
    Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), Japan.
    Hikosaka, Kouki
    Tohoku University, Japan.
    Jensen, Anna M.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Forestry and Wood Technology.
    Kelly, Jeff W. G.
    University of Washington, USA.
    Kruger, Eric L.
    University of Wisconsin‐Madison, USA.
    Mercado, Lina M.
    University of Exeter, UK;Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK.
    Onoda, Yusuke
    Kyoto University, Japan.
    Reich, Peter B.
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Rogers, Alistair
    Brookhaven National Laboratory, USA.
    Slot, Martijn
    Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama.
    Smith, Nicholas G.
    Texas Tech University, USA.
    Tarvainen, Lasse
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden;University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Tissue, David T.
    Western Sydney University, USA.
    Togashi, Henrique F.
    Macquarie University, Australia.
    Tribuzy, Edgard S.
    Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará (UFOPA), Brazil.
    Uddling, Johan
    University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Vårhammar, Angelica
    Western Sydney University, Australia.
    Wallin, Göran
    University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Warren, Jeffrey M.
    Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA.
    Way, Danielle A.
    The University of Western Ontario, Canada;Duke University, USA.
    Acclimation and adaptation components of the temperature dependence of plant photosynthesis at the global scale2019In: New Phytologist, ISSN 0028-646X, E-ISSN 1469-8137, Vol. 222, no 2, p. 768-784Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The temperature response of photosynthesis is one of the key factors determining predicted responses to warming in global vegetation models (GVMs). The response may vary geographically, owing to genetic adaptation to climate, and temporally, as a result of acclimation to changes in ambient temperature. Our goal was to develop a robust quantitative global model representing acclimation and adaptation of photosynthetic temperature responses.

    We quantified and modelled key mechanisms responsible for photosynthetic temperature acclimation and adaptation using a global dataset of photosynthetic CO2 response curves, including data from 141 C3 species from tropical rainforest to Arctic tundra. We separated temperature acclimation and adaptation processes by considering seasonal and common-garden datasets, respectively.

    The observed global variation in the temperature optimum of photosynthesis was primarily explained by biochemical limitations to photosynthesis, rather than stomatal conductance or respiration. We found acclimation to growth temperature to be a stronger driver of this variation than adaptation to temperature at climate of origin.

    We developed a summary model to represent photosynthetic temperature responses and showed that it predicted the observed global variation in optimal temperatures with high accuracy. This novel algorithm should enable improved prediction of the function of global ecosystems in a warming climate.

  • 22.
    Majaneva, Sanna
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science. UiT Arctic Univ Norway, Norway.
    Hamon, Gwenaelle
    Norwegian Polar Res Inst, Norway.
    Fugmann, Gerlis
    UiT Arctic Univ Norway, Norway.
    Lisowska, Maja
    Ctr Polar Studies, Poland ; Polish Polar Consortium, PL-41200 Sosnowiec, Poland.;Int Arctic Sci Comm Secretariat, Germany..
    Baeseman, Jenny
    Norwegian Polar Res Inst, Norway ; Scott Polar Res Inst, Sci Comm Antarctic Res, Cambridge CB2 1ER, England.;Univ Alaska, Int Arctic Res Ctr, USA..
    Where are they now?: - A case study of the impact of international travel support for early career Arctic researchers2016In: Polar Science, ISSN 1873-9652, E-ISSN 1876-4428, Vol. 10, no 3, p. 382-394Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Supporting and training the next generation of researchers is crucial to continuous knowledge and leadership in Arctic research. An increasing number of Arctic organizations have developed initiatives to provide travel support for Early Career Researchers (ECRs) to participate in workshops, conferences and meetings and to network with internationally renowned scientific leaders. However, there has been little evaluation of the effectiveness of these initiatives. As a contribution to the 3rd International Conference on Arctic Research Planning, a study was conducted to analyze the career paths of ECRs who received travel funding from the International Arctic Science Committee between the start of the International Polar Year (2007-2008) and 2013. Two surveys were used: one sent to ECRs who received IASC travel support and one as a specific event study to those unsuccessfully applied for IASC travel support to the IPY 2010 Conference. The results of the surveys indicate that travel support was beneficial to both the research and careers of the respondents, especially if the ECR was engaged with a task or responsibility at the event. Survey responses also included suggestions on how funds could be better used to support the next generation of Arctic researchers. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  • 23.
    Pemunta, Ngambouk Vitalis
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Arts and Humanities, Department of Cultural Sciences.
    The impact of climate change on food security and health in northern Cameroon2013In: New Developments in Global warming Research / [ed] Carter B. Keyes and Olivia C.Lucero, New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2013, 1, p. 1-50Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agriculture and the exploitation of natural resources are the main pivots of Cameroon’s economic development. An estimated 80 % of rural households are involved in farming and contribute about 30% to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, prolonged dry spells and droughts negatively affect agricultural output and economic development. This paper examines the drivers, magnitude and impact of climate change in the semi-arid northern section of Cameroon on food security and malnutrition. A conjunction between drought, climate change, desertification, prolonged dry spells and floods often lead to significant crop losses in this region. Compounding this situation is increased population pressure-partly due to the influx of refugees as well as droughts and floods which have partly led to the mobility of herds as a response to the extension of cropping areas, pasture shortage and farmer- grazer conflicts resulting from crop damage. This is happening against the backdrop of land tenure insecurity for women which, has been fuelled by competition and power struggle between customary and modern tenure systems affecting land management and access to resources. Drawing theoretical insights from the concept of “politics of the belly[1]” in political ecology and from resource use conflict theories, this chapter examines the negative impacts of climate change and calls attention to a shift away from formal institutions to individual behaviour so as to integrate and take note of the “politics of the belly” in political ecology. The omnipresent phenomenon of climate change has the potential to alter agricultural productivity, fuel illnesses and diseases in one of the least developed regions in Cameroon. Although climate, soil and vegetation are subject to variation, they are the fundamental elements of ecology and thus are interconnected. Climate can have a bearing on health and mortality in two ways. On the one hand, it conditions temperature which disproportionately affects children at tender ages as well as adults- more senior citizens die of heat stroke- and on the other, it favours the spread of infectious agents or their vectors-especially pathogenic micro-organisms. It is determinant to the type, quantity as well as the quality of food and water resources available during certain periods of the year.The paper suggests among others that the negative impacts of temperature and precipitation change could be counteracted by changing sowing dates, through the professionalisation of the livestock production system alongside the promotion of forage crops and by increasing investment in infrastructure- particularly transportation, energy and irrigation. The success of these measures will require a coordinated intersectorial and transborder approach to rural development.

    [1] Profit motive underpinning political leaning and participation as well as voting preference.

  • 24.
    Rasmont, Pierre
    et al.
    Université de Mons, Belgium.
    Franzén, Markus
    Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Germany.
    Lecocq, Thomas
    Université de Mons, Belgium.
    Harpke, Alexander
    Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Germany.
    Roberts, Stuart
    University of Reading, UK.
    Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.
    Naturalis Biodiversity Center, The Netherlands.
    Castro, Leopoldo
    I.E.S. Vega del Turia, Spain.
    Cederberg, Björn
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    Dvorak, Libor
    Municipal Museum Mariánské Lázně, Czech Republic.
    Fitzpatrick, Úna
    Municipal Museum Mariánské Lázně, Czech Republic.
    Gonseth, Yves
    Haubruge, Eric
    Mahé, Gilles
    Manino, Aulo
    Michez, Denis
    Neumayer, Johann
    Ødegaard, Frode
    Paukkunen, Juho
    Pawlikowski, Tadeusz
    Potts, Simon
    Reemer, Menno
    Settele, Josef
    Straka, Jakub
    Schweiger, Oliver
    Climatic Risk and Distribution Atlas of European Bumblebees2015Book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Bumble bees represent one of the most important groups of pollinators. In addition to their ecological and economic relevance, they are also a highly charismatic group which can help to increase the interest of people in realizing, enjoying and conserving natural systems. However, like most animals, bumble bees are sensitive to climate. In this atlas, maps depicting potential risks of climate change for bumble bees are shown together with informative summary statistics, ecological background information and a picture of each European species.

    Thanks to the EU FP7 project STEP, the authors gathered over one million bumblebee records from all over Europe. Based on these data, they modelled the current climatic niche for almost all European species (56 species) and projected future climatically suitable conditions using three climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. While under a moderate change scenario only 3 species are projected to be at the verge of extinction by 2100, 14 species are at high risk under an intermediate change scenario. Under a most severe change scenario as many as 25 species are projected to lose almost all of their climatically suitable area, while a total of 53 species (77% of the 69 European species) would lose the main part of their suitable area.

    Climatic risks for bumblebees can be extremely high, depending on the future development of human society, and the corresponding effects on the climate. Strong mitigation strategies are needed to preserve this important species group and to ensure the sustainable provision of pollination services, to which they considerably contribute.

  • 25. Rathi, Akshat
    Olofsson, Martin (Contributor)
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    The revolutionary technology pushing Sweden toward the seemingly impossible goal of zero emissions: The cure for emissions: algae2017In: Quartz, no 21 JuneArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 26.
    Sathre, Roger
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Built Environment and Energy Technology.
    Gustavsson, Leif
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Built Environment and Energy Technology.
    Truong, Nguyen Le
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Built Environment and Energy Technology.
    Climate effects of electricity production fuelled by coal, forest slash and municipal solid waste with and without carbon capture2017In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 122, p. 711-723Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyse the climate implications of producing electricity in large-scale conversion plants using coal, forest slash and municipal solid waste with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS). We calculate the primary energy, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emission profiles, and the cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) of different systems that produce the same amount of electricity. We find that using slash or waste for electricity production instead of coal somewhat increases the instantaneous CO2 emission from the power plant, but avoids significant subsequent emissions from decaying slash in forests or waste in landfills. For slash used instead of coal, we find robust near- and long-term reductions in total emissions and CRF. Climate effects of using waste instead of coal are more ambiguous: CRF is reduced when CCS is used, but without CCS there is little or no climate benefits of using waste directly for energy, assuming that landfill gas is recovered and used for electricity production. The application of CCS requires more fuel, but strongly reduces the CO2 emissions. The use of slash or waste together with CCS results in negative net emissions and CRF, i.e. global cooling.

  • 27.
    Sjöstedt, Emma
    University of Kalmar, Kalmar Maritime Academy.
    Infastrukturen och Klimatförändringarna: Hur klimatförändringarna kan påverka Kalmar2008Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 5 poäng / 7,5 hpStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    I denna uppsats har jag tagit reda på hur klimatförändringarna i framtiden kan komma att drabba Kalmar. Syftet med uppsatsen var att förklara för läsarna hur klimatförändringarna visar sig, hur de kan påverka städer och dessutom se hur de olika organisationerna som agerar inom kommunen och länet har planerat för detta och vilka kunskaper de har. Uppsatsen är skriven med en kvalitativ explanativ metod. Med hjälp av olika personer som jobbar inom berörda organisationer har jag kommit fram till att det största problemet som kan uppstå på grund av klimatförändringarna är översvämningar och stormar. Då Kalmar är en gammal stad som är uppbyggd nästan precis i strandkanten så skulle en permanent höjning av vattennivån medföra att stora områden i Kalmars centrala delar skulle kunna hamna under vatten. Redan nu kan det konstateras att Kalmar Hamn har problem med kajernas hållfasthet på grund av en urgröpning som är ett resultat av de senaste årens högvatten.

  • 28.
    Trondman, Anna-Kari
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of land-cover change in Europe from 11,500 years ago until present - A dataset suitable for climate modelling2014Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The major objective of this thesis was to produce descriptions of the land vegetation-cover in Europe for selected time windows of the Holocene (6000, 3000, 500, 200, and 50 calendar years before present (BP=1950)) that can be used in climate modelling. Land vegetation is part of the climate system; its changes influence climate through biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. Land use such as deforestation is one of the external forcings of climate change.  Reliable descriptions of vegetation cover in the past are needed to study land cover-climate interactions and understand the possible effects of present and future land-use changes on future climate.

    We tested and applied the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites) model to estimate past vegetation in percentage cover over Europe using pollen records from lake sediments and peat bogs. The model corrects for the biases of pollen data due to intraspecific differences in pollen productivity and pollen dispersion and deposition in lakes and bogs. For the land-cover reconstructions in Europe and the Baltic Sea catchment we used 636 (grouped by 1˚x1˚ grid cells) and 339 (grouped by biogeographical regions) pollen records, respectively. The REVEALS reconstructions were performed for 25 tree, shrub and herb taxa. The grid-based REVEALS reconstructions were then interpolated using a set of statistical spatial models.

    We show that the choice of input parameters for the REVEALS application does not affect the ranking of the REVEALS estimates significantly, except when entomophilous taxa are included. We demonstrate that pollen data from multiple small sites provide REVEALS estimates that are comparable to those obtained with pollen data from large lakes, however with larger error estimates. The distance between the small sites does not influence the results significantly as long as the sites are at a sufficient distance from vegetation zone boundaries. The REVEALS estimates of open land for Europe and the Baltic Sea catchment indicate that the degree of landscape openness during the Holocene was significantly higher than previously interpreted from pollen percentages. The relationship between Pinus and Picea and between evergreen and summer-green taxa may also differ strongly whether it is based on REVEALS percentage cover or pollen percentages. These results provide entirely new insights on Holocene vegetation history and help understanding questions related to resource management by humans and biodiversity in the past. The statistical spatial models provide for the first time pollen-based descriptions of past land cover that can be used in climate modelling and studies of land cover-climate interactions in the past.

  • 29.
    Wallin, Pontus
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Vart bör Kiribati, Tuvalu och Marshallöarnas befolkningar ta vägen?: En normativ analys inom ämnet för klimatförändringarnas utmaningar2015Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The effects of anthropogenic climate change are becoming more and more visible as being highlighted by scientists, politicians and media. The causes of droughts, floods, melting ice caps and rising sea levels can all partially be traced back to human activities. In this study, I examine where the future climate refugees of Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands should go when inhabitants of these low lying island nations are forced to leave their disappearing territories due to sea level rise. By using a normative method of analysis i egentlig mening, arguments deriving from certain values will be presented to confront the problem. These values originate from Edward A. Page’s theories concerning justice in sharing the burdens of climate change. Combined with a complementary utilitaristic value, the conclusion is that Australia is most suitable to host future climate refugees of these particular island nations, while the justice based values alone concludes the US as its preferred choice. In parallel, normative political theory will be evaluated regarding its functionality in the subject of global climate questions. Hence this study contains two purposes; to argue where the islanders should go, and whether a normative methodology is suitable when solving such a problem.

  • 30.
    Werner, Kirstin
    et al.
    Ohio State Univ, USA ; Korea Polar Res Inst, South Korea.
    Fritz, Michael
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany ; Univ Utrecht, Netherlands.
    Morata, Nathalie
    Univ Brest, France ; Akvaplan Niva, Norway.
    Keil, Kathrin
    Inst Adv Sustainabil Studies, Germany.
    Pavlov, Alexey
    Norwegian Polar Res Inst, Norway.
    Peeken, Ilka
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany.
    Nikolopoulos, Anna
    AquaBiota Water Res, Sweden.
    Findlay, Helen S.
    Plymouth Marine Lab, UK.
    Kedra, Monika
    Polish Acad Sci, Poland.
    Majaneva, Sanna
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Renner, Angelika
    Inst Marine Res, Norway.
    Hendricks, Stefan
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany.
    Jacquot, Mathilde
    Univ Bretagne Occidentale, France.
    Nicolaus, Marcel
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Germany.
    O'Regan, Matt
    Stockholm University.
    Sampei, Makoto
    Hiroshima Univ, Japan.
    Wegner, Carolyn
    GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res, Germany.
    Arctic in Rapid Transition: Priorities for the future of marine and coastal research in the Arctic2016In: Polar Science, ISSN 1873-9652, E-ISSN 1876-4428, Vol. 10, no 3, p. 364-373Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding and responding to the rapidly occurring environmental changes in the Arctic over the past few decades require new approaches in science. This includes improved collaborations within the scientific community but also enhanced dialogue between scientists and societal stakeholders, especially with Arctic communities. As a contribution to the Third International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARPIII), the Arctic in Rapid Transition (ART) network held an international workshop in France, in October 2014, in order to discuss high-priority requirements for future Arctic marine and coastal research from an early-career scientists (ECS) perspective. The discussion encompassed a variety of research fields, including topics of oceanographic conditions, sea-ice monitoring, marine biodiversity, land-ocean interactions, and geological reconstructions, as well as law and governance issues. Participants of the workshop strongly agreed on the need to enhance interdisciplinarity in order to collect comprehensive knowledge about the modern and past Arctic Ocean's geo-ecological dynamics. Such knowledge enables improved predictions of Arctic developments and provides the basis for elaborate decision-making on future actions under plausible environmental and climate scenarios in the high northern latitudes. Priority research sheets resulting from the workshop's discussions were distributed during the ICARPIII meetings in April 2015 in Japan, and are publicly available online. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. and NIPR. All rights reserved.

  • 31.
    Xu, Qinghai
    et al.
    Hebei Normal University, China.
    Zhang, Shengrui
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.
    Gaillard, Marie-José
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Li, Manyue
    Hebei Normal University, China.
    Cao, Xianyong
    Hebei Normal University, China ; Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany.
    Tian, Fang
    Hebei Normal University, China ; Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany.
    Li, Furong
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Studies of modern pollen assemblages for pollen dispersal- deposition- preservation process understanding and for pollen-based reconstructions of past vegetation, climate, and human impact: A review based on case studies in China2016In: Quaternary Science Reviews, ISSN 0277-3791, E-ISSN 1873-457X, Vol. 149, p. 151-166Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Fossil pollen, as a direct proxy record of past vegetation, and indirect proxy record of past climate, plays an essential role in revealing and reconstructing past vegetation and climate. However, relationships between pollen, vegetation and climate are not linear, hence quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation and climate based on pollen records are not straightforward, and results may be highly contradictory and difficult to interpret. One of the main causes of discrepancies between results has been the lack of comprehensive and systematical studies on modern pollen dispersal and deposition processes, particularly on the quantification of these processes. Based on empirical studies performed in China over the last 30 years, this paper provides the state-of-the-art of the understanding of pollen dispersal and deposition processes in China and the remaining questions to be investigated. We show that major progress has been achieved in the study of modern pollen dispersal and deposition processes, and in the application of models of the pollen-vegetation-climate relationships for quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation and climate. However, several issues are not entirely solved or understood yet, such as how to quantify the reworking and re-deposition of pollen grains in quaternary alluvial sediments, the influence of pollen preservation on pollen assemblages, and human impact on vegetation. Even so, the progress made during the last decades makes it possible to achieve significantly more precise and informative reconstructions of past vegetation, land-use and climate in China than was possible earlier.

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