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  • 1.
    Blennow, Kristina
    et al.
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Andersson, Mikael
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Bergh, Johan
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Sallnäs, Ola
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Olofsson, Erika
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).
    Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest2010In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 99, no 1-2, p. 261-278Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071–2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961–1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15–40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071–2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.

  • 2. Didion, M.
    et al.
    Kupferschmid, A.D.
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Sciences, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, Universitätstr. 22, CH 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Bugmann, H.
    Ungulate herbivory modifies the effects of climate change on mountain forests2011In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 109, no 3-4, p. 647-669Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent temperature observations suggest a general warming trend that may be causing the range of tree species to shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. Since biotic interactions such as herbivory can change tree species composition, it is important to understand their contribution to vegetation changes triggered by climate change. To investigate the response of forests to climate change and herbivory by wild ungulates, we used the forest gap model ForClim v2. 9. 6 and simulated forest development in three climatically different valleys in the Swiss Alps. We used altitudinal transects on contrasting slopes covering a wide range of forest types from the cold (upper) to the dry (lower) treeline. This allowed us to investigate (1) altitudinal range shifts in response to climate change, (2) the consequences for tree species composition, and (3) the combined effect of climate change and ungulate herbivory. We found that ungulate herbivory changed species composition and that both basal area and stem numbers decreased with increasing herbivory intensity. Tree species responded differently to the change in climate, and their ranges did not change concurrently, thus causing a succession to new stand types. While climate change partially compensated for the reductions in basal area caused by ungulate herbivory, the combined effect of these two agents on the mix of the dominant species and forest type was non-compensatory, as browsing selectively excluded species from establishing or reaching dominance and altered competition patterns, particularly for light. We conclude that there is an urgent need for adaptive forest management strategies that address the joint effects of climate change and ungulate herbivory. 

  • 3.
    Dubois, Ghislain
    et al.
    TEC, France.
    Ceron, Jean-Paul
    CIRED, France.
    Gössling, Stefan
    Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Organisation and Entrepreneurship. Western Norway Res Inst, Norway.
    Hall, C. Michael
    Univ Canterbury, New Zealand.
    Weather preferences of French tourists: lessons for climate change impact assessment2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 136, no 2, p. 339-351Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Tourism has complex relationships with weather and climate, and there is consensus that tourism could be substantially affected by climatic change. While considerable research has been presented on how climatic change is likely to affect destinations and tourism stakeholders in the future, there remains limited understanding of the weather preferences of tourists. This is a research priority if the implications of climatic change for the temporal and geographic patterns of tourism demand are to be assessed with more relevance. This paper presents the results of a survey (n = 1643 respondents) of the weather preferences of French tourists. Results show the ranking of weather and climate as a factor of destination choice and satisfaction. They also indicate the high tolerance of tourists to heat and even to heat waves, whereas rainy conditions appear to be clearly repulsive. The weight of precipitation in indices like the Tourism Comfort Index should therefore be upgraded. The findings are also compared with studies in other countries. Slight differences in similar surveys can lead to a discrepancy in the appreciation of excessive heat and associated thresholds by 2-3 degrees C, which might limit the possibility to base climate change impact assessment on such fragile data.

  • 4.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller Univ, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Does risk communication really decrease cooperation in climate change mitigation?2018In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 149, no 2, p. 147-158Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Effective communication of risks involved in the climate change discussion is crucial and despite ambitious protection policies, the possibility of irreversible consequences actually occurring can only be diminished but never ruled out completely. We present a laboratory experiment that studies how residual risk of failure of climate change policies affects willingness to contribute to such policies. Despite prevailing views on people's risk aversion, we found that contributions were higher at least in the final part of treatments including a residual risk. We interpret this as the product of a psychological process where residual risk puts participants into an "alarm mode," keeping their contributions high. We discuss the broad practical implications this might have on the real-world communication of climate change.

  • 5.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller University, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Investing into climate change mitigation despite the risk of failure2019In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 154, no 3-4, p. 453-460Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to convince both policy makers and the general public to engage in climate change mitigation activities, it is crucial to communicate the inherent risks in an effective way. Due to the complexity of the system, mitigation activities cannot completely rule out the possibility of the climate reaching a dangerous tipping point but can only reduce it to some unavoidable residual risk level. We present an online experiment based on a sample of US citizens and designed to improve our understanding of how the presence of such residual risk affects the willingness to invest into climate change mitigation. We found that, far from reducing them, the presence of residual risk actually increases investments into mitigation activities. This result suggests that scientists and policy makers should consider being more transparent about communicating the residual risks entailed by such initiatives.

  • 6. Goettel, Holger
    et al.
    Alexander, Jorn
    Keup-Thiel, Elke
    Rechid, Diana
    Hagemann, Stefan
    Blome, Tanja
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    Jacob, Daniela
    Influence of changed vegetations fields on regional climate simulations in the Barents Sea Region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 35-50Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the context of the EU-Project BALANCE (http://balance-eu.info) the regional climate model REMO was used for extensive calculations of the Barents Sea climate to investigate the vulnerability of this region to climate change. The regional climate model REMO simulated the climate change of the Barents Sea Region between 1961 and 2100 (Control and Climate Change run, CCC-Run). REMO on similar to 50 km horizontal resolution was driven by the transient ECHAM4/OPYC3 IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The output of the CCC-Run was applied to drive the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. The results of the vegetation model were used to repeat the CCC-Run with dynamic vegetation fields. The feedback effect of the modified vegetation on the climate change signal is investigated and discussed with focus on precipitation, temperature and snow cover. The effect of the offline coupled vegetation feedback run is much lower than the greenhouse gas effect.

  • 7.
    Gustavsson, Leif
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för teknik och hållbar utveckling.
    Sathre, Roger
    Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för teknik och hållbar utveckling.
    Energy and CO2 analysis of wood substitution in construction2011In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 105, no 1-2, p. 129-153Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Comparative analysis of the energy and carbon balances of wood vs. non-wood products is a complex issue. In this paper we discuss the definition of an appropriate functional unit and the establishment of effective system boundaries in terms of activity, time and space, with an emphasis on the comparison of buildings. The functional unit can be defined at the level of building component, complete building, or services provided by the built environment. Energy use or carbon emissions per unit of mass or volume of material is inadequate as a functional unit because equal masses or volumes of different materials do not fulfil the same function. Activity-based system boundaries include life cycle processes such as material production, product operation, and post-use material management. If the products compared are functionally equivalent, such that the impacts occurring during the operation phase are equal, we suggest that this phase may be dropped from the analysis allowing a focus on material flows. The use of wood co-products as biofuel can be analytically treated through system expansion, and compared to an alternative of providing the same energy service with fossil fuels. The assumed production of electricity used for material processing is another important energy-related issue, and we suggest that using marginal production data is more appropriate than average production. Temporal system boundaries include such aspects of the wood life cycle as the dynamics of forest growth including regeneration and saturation, the availability of residue biofuels at different times, and the duration of carbon storage in products. The establishment of spatial boundaries can be problematic, because using wood-based materials instead of non-wood materials requires more land area to capture solar energy and accumulate biomass. We discuss several possible approaches to meet this challenge, including the intensification of land use to increase the time rate of biomass production. Finally, we discuss issues related to scaling up an analysis of wood substitution from the micro-level to the macro-level of national, regional or global.

  • 8. Matthes, Heidrun
    et al.
    Rinke, Annette
    Miller, Paul A.
    Kuhry, Peter
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. nstitute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
    Sensitivity of high-resolution Arctic regional climate model projections to different implementations of land surface processes2012In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 111, no 2, p. 197-214Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain. Different setups of the land surface model of the regional climate model HIRHAM were realized to analyze differences in the atmospheric circulation caused by (1) the incorporation of freezing/thawing of soil moisture, (2) the consideration of top organic soil horizons typical for the Arctic and (3) a vegetation shift due to a changing climate. The largest direct thermal effect in 2 m air temperature was found for the vegetation shift, which ranged between -1.5 K and 3 K. The inclusion of a freeze/thaw scheme for soil moisture shows equally large sensitivities in spring over cool areas with high soil moisture content. Although the sensitivity signal in 2 m air temperature for the experiments differs in amplitude, all experiments show changes in mean sea level pressure (mslp) and geopotential height (z) throughout the troposphere of similar magnitude (mslp: -2 hPa to 1.5 hPa, z: -15 gpm to 5 gpm). This points to the importance of dynamical feedbacks within the atmosphere-land system. Land and soil processes have a distinct remote influence on large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in addition to their direct, regional effects. The assessment of induced uncertainties due to the changed implementations of land surface processes discussed in this study demonstrates the need to take all those processes for future Arctic climate projections into account, and demonstrates a clear need to include similar implementations in regional and global climate models.

  • 9.
    Olofsson, Erika
    et al.
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    Blennow, Kristina
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    The probability of wind damage in forestry under a changed wind climate2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 3, p. 347-360Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We (1) estimated how the possible changes in wind climate due to climatic change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds (CWS) expected to cause significant wind damage within a forest management unit located in southern Sweden, (2) analysed how the probability of exceeding an approximate CWS as observed in the management unit would change in different regions in Sweden if expecting a similar kind of forested area to occur in different geographical locations. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). Seven regions across Sweden were selected for comparison of possible future probability of damaging wind speed. The model-system WINDA was modified and used for calculations of the probability of wind damage together with regionally downscaled climate change scenario (CCS) data. In total, two climate scenarios downscaled using the RCAO model for the control period 1961–1990 and four for the period 2071–2100 were used. The CCSs represent fairly central projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. Although there is ambiguity between different CCSs, the results indicated that the present pattern of more windy conditions in southern than in northern Sweden will remain. For most sites the probability of exceeding the CWS from westerly to south-westerly directions was indicated to remain comparatively high and the probability of damaging wind from south-westerly to south-easterly directions was indicated to increase in many places. For southernmost Sweden increasing probability of exceeding the CWS from the north-westerly to south-easterly wind directions were indicated for all but one CCS. The results were discussed with respect to spatial planning in forestry under a changing wind climate.

  • 10. Roderfeld, Hedwig
    et al.
    Blyth, Eleanor
    Dankers, Rutger
    Huse, Geir
    Slagstad, Dag
    Ellingsen, Ingrid
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    Lange, Manfred A.
    Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 283-303Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Koppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080.

  • 11.
    Wolf, Annett
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, Lund, Sweden; Abisko Sci Res Stn, Abisko, Sweden.
    Blyth, Eleanor
    Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England.
    Harding, Richard
    Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England.
    Jacob, Daniela
    Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany.
    Keup-Thiel, Elke
    Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany.
    Goettel, Holger
    Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany.
    Callaghan, Terry
    Abisko Sci Res Stn, Abisko, Sweden; Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England.
    Sensitivity of an ecosystem model to hydrology and temperature2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 75-89Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 12.
    Wolf, Annett
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    Callaghan, Terry V.
    Larson, Karin
    Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 51-73Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is used to project transient impacts of changes in climate on vegetation of the Barents Region. We incorporate additional plant functional types, i.e. shrubs and defined different types of open ground vegetation, to improve the representation of arctic vegetation in the global model. We use future climate projections as well as control climate data for 1981-2000 from a regional climate model (REMO) that assumes a development of atmospheric CO(2)-concentration according to the B2-SRES scenario [IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution working group I to the Third assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)]. The model showed a generally good fit with observed data, both qualitatively when model outputs were compared to vegetation maps and quantitatively when compared with observations of biomass, NPP and LAI. The main discrepancy between the model output and observed vegetation is the overestimation of forest abundance for the northern parts of the Kola Peninsula that cannot be explained by climatic factors alone. Over the next hundred years, the model predicted an increase in boreal needle leaved evergreen forest, as extensions northwards and upwards in mountain areas, and as an increase in biomass, NPP and LAI. The model also projected that shade-intolerant broadleaved summergreen trees will be found further north and higher up in the mountain areas. Surprisingly, shrublands will decrease in extent as they are replaced by forest at their southern margins and restricted to areas high up in the mountains and to areas in northern Russia. Open ground vegetation will largely disappear in the Scandinavian mountains. Also counter-intuitively, tundra will increase in abundance due to the occupation of previously unvegetated areas in the northern part of the Barents Region. Spring greening will occur earlier and LAI will increase. Consequently, albedo will decrease both in summer and winter time, particularly in the Scandinavian mountains (by up to 18%). Although this positive feedback to climate could be offset to some extent by increased CO(2) drawdown from vegetation, increasing soil respiration results in NEE close to zero, so we cannot conclude to what extent or whether the Barents Region will become a source or a sink of CO(2).

  • 13.
    Wolf, Annett
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    Kozlov, Mikhail V.
    Callaghan, Terry V.
    Impact of non-outbreak insect damage on vegetation in northern Europe will be greater than expected during a changing climate2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 91-106Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background insect herbivory, in addition to insect outbreaks, can have an important long term influence on the performance of tree species. Since a projected warmer climate may favour insect herbivores, we use a dynamic ecosystem model to investigate the impacts of background herbivory on vegetation growth and productivity, as well as distribution and associated changes in terrestrial ecosystems of northern Europe. We used the GUESS ecosystem modelling framework and a simple linear model for including the leaf area loss of Betula pubescens in relation to mean July temperature. We tested the sensitivity of the responses of the simulated ecosystems to different, but realistic, degrees of insect damage. Predicted temperature increases are likely to enhance the potential insect impacts on vegetation. The impacts are strongest in the eastern areas, where potential insect damage to B. pubescens can increase by 4-5%. The increase in insect damage to B. pubescens results in a reduction of total birch leaf area (LAI), total birch biomass and birch productivity (Net Primary Production). This effect is stronger than the insect damage to leaf area alone would suggest, due to its second order effect on the competition between tree species. The model’s demonstration that background herbivory may cause changes in vegetation structure suggests that insect damage, generally neglected by vegetation models, can change predictions of future forest composition. Carbon fluxes and albedo are only slightly influenced by background insect herbivory, indicating that background insect damage is of minor importance for estimating the feedback of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

  • 14.
    Wolf, Annett
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration. Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätsstr. 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Lazzarotto, Patrick
    Forschungsanstalt Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon ART, Reckenholzstrasse 191, CH-8046 Zürich, Switzerland.
    Bugmann, Harald
    Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätsstr. 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    The relative importance of land use and climatic change in Alpine catchments2012In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 111, no 2, p. 279-300Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Carbon storage and catchment hydrology are influenced both by land use changes and climatic changes, but there are few studies addressing both responses under both driving forces. We investigated the relative importance of climate change vs. land use change for four Alpine catchments using the LPJ-GUESS model. Two scenarios of grassland management were calibrated based on the more detailed model PROGRASS. The simulations until 2100 show that only reforestation could lead to an increase of carbon storage under climatic change, whereby a cessation of carbon accumulation occurred in all catchments after 2050. The initial increase in carbon storage was attributable mainly to forest re-growth on abandoned land, whereas the stagnation and decline in the second half of the century was mainly driven by climate change. If land was used more intensively, i.e. as grassland, litter input to the soil decreased due to harvesting, resulting in a decline of soil carbon storage (1.2−2.9 kg C m–2) that was larger than the climate-induced change (0.8–1.4 kg C m−2). Land use change influenced transpiration both directly and in interaction with climate change. The response of forested catchments diverged with climatic change (11–40 mm increase in AET), reflecting the differences in forest age, topography and water holding capacity within and between catchments. For grass-dominated catchments, however, transpiration responded in a similar manner to climate change (light management: 23–32 mm AET decrease, heavy management: 29–44 mm AET decrease), likely because grassroots are concentrated in the uppermost soil layers. Both the water and the carbon cycle were more strongly influenced by land use compared to climatic changes, as land use had not only a direct effect on carbon storage and transpiration, but also an indirect effect by modifying the climate change response of transpiration and carbon flux in the catchments. For the carbon cycle, climate change led to a cessation of the catchment response (sink/source strength is limited), whereas for the water cycle, the effect of land use change remains evident throughout the simulation period (changes in evapotranspiration do not attenuate). Thus we conclude that management will have a large potential to influence the carbon and water cycle, which needs to be considered in management planning as well as in climate and hydrological modelling.

  • 15. Zockler, Christoph
    et al.
    Miles, Lera
    Fish, Lucy
    Wolf, Annett
    Linnaeus University, The University Administration.
    Rees, Gareth
    Danks, Fiona
    Potential impact of climate change and reindeer density on tundra indicator species in the Barents Sea region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 119-130Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of habitats and thus the distribution of species connected with these habitats in the terrestrial Barents Sea region. It was hypothesised that wild species connected with the tundra and open-land biome may be particularly at risk as forest area expands. Fourteen species of birds were identified as useful indicators for the biodiversity dependent upon this biome. By bringing together species distribution information with the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model, and with estimates of future wild and domestic reindeer density, potential impacts on these species between the present time and 2080 were assessed. Over this period there was a net loss of open land within the current breeding range of most bird species. Grazing reindeer were modelled as increasing the amount of open land retained for nine of the tundra bird species.

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