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  • 1.
    Avril, Alexis
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Grosbois, Vladimir
    CIRAD, France.
    Latorre-Margalef, Neus
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science. Univ Georgia, USA.
    Gaidet, Nicolas
    CIRAD, France.
    Tolf, Conny
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Olsen, Björn
    Uppsala University.
    Waldenström, Jonas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Capturing individual-level parameters of influenza A virus dynamics in wild ducks using multistate models2016In: Journal of Applied Ecology, ISSN 0021-8901, E-ISSN 1365-2664, Vol. 53, no 4, p. 1289-1297Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Disease prevalence in wildlife is governed by epidemiological parameters (infection and recovery rates) and response to infection, both of which vary within and among individual hosts. Studies quantifying these individual-scale parameters and documenting their source of variation in wild hosts are fundamental for predicting disease dynamics. Such studies do not exist for the influenza A virus (IAV), despite its strong impact on the global economy and public health. Using capture-recaptures of 3500 individual mallards Anas platyrhynchos during seven migration seasons at a stopover site in southern Sweden, we provide the first empirical description of the individual-based mechanisms of IAV dynamics in a wild reservoir host. For most years, prevalence and risk of IAV infection peaked at a single time during the autumn migration season, but the timing, shape and intensity of the infection curve showed strong annual heterogeneity. In contrast, the seasonal pattern of recovery rate only varied in intensity across years. Adults and juveniles displayed similar seasonal patterns of infection and recovery each year. However, compared to adults, juveniles experienced twice the risk of becoming infected, whereas recovery rates were similar across age categories. Finally, we did not find evidence that infection influenced the timing of emigration.Synthesis and applications. Our study provides robust empirical estimates of epidemiological parameters for predicting influenza A virus (IAV) dynamics. However, the strong annual variation in infection curves makes forecasting difficult. Prevalence data can provide reliable surveillance indicators as long as they catch the variation in infection risk. However, individual-based monitoring of infection is required to verify this assumption in areas where surveillance occurs. In this context, monitoring of captive sentinel birds kept in close contact with wild birds is useful. The fact that infection does not impact the timing of migration underpins the potential for mallards to spread viruses rapidly over large geographical scales. Hence, we strongly encourage IAV surveillance with a multistate capture-recapture approach along the entire migratory flyway of mallards.

  • 2.
    Gothe, Emma
    et al.
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden;County Board Dalarna, Sweden.
    Degerman, Erik
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
    Sandin, Leonard
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
    Segersten, Joel
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
    Tamario, Carl
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
    Mckie, Brendan G.
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
    Flow restoration and the impacts of multiple stressors on fish communities in regulated rivers2019In: Journal of Applied Ecology, ISSN 0021-8901, E-ISSN 1365-2664, Vol. 56, no 7, p. 1687-1702Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    River regulation for hydropower is undertaken worldwide, causing profound alterations to hydrological regimes and running water habitats. Regulated catchments are often subjected to additional stressors, arising inter alia from agriculture, forestry and industry, which are likely to interact with impacts of river regulation on fish and other biota. Such interactions are poorly understood, hindering planning of effective mitigation and restoration. We investigated fish responses to increased discharge (as a restoration measure) in regulated rivers in Sweden. We compiled electrofishing data from river channels downstream of hydropower dams, each of which either has or lacks a mandated minimum discharge corresponding to c. 5% of pre-regulation discharge. We further analysed interactions between flow restoration and co-occurring local and regional stressors. River channels without a mandated minimum discharge were characterized by a low diversity of fish species with traits favouring persistence under unpredictable environmental conditions, including omnivory, short life cycles and small size. Additional stressors further reduced diversity and increased dominance by broad-niched, opportunistic species. Both the presence and magnitude of a mandated minimum discharge were positively related to fish diversity and density, and the relative density of three economically and recreationally valuable species. However, the size of these relationships frequently varied with the presence of additional stressors. Increasing levels of hydrological degradation and reduced connectivity at the catchment scale reduced positive flow-ecology relationships and hindered the restoration of fish communities towards reference conditions. However, application of a mandated minimum discharge also assisted in mitigating impacts of some co-occurring stressors, especially reduced riparian integrity. Synthesis and applications. Additional stressors can strongly influence the outcomes of flow restoration for fish community diversity and composition. Our approach combining fish species and trait data from multiple flow restoration projects with information on additional stressors yielded valuable insights into factors affecting flow restoration success, useful for (a) identifying the systems most likely to benefit from mandated minimum flows, (b) modelling influences of multiple stressors on flow-ecology relationships, (c) prioritizing additional measures to manage co-occurring stressors and enhance outcomes from flow restoration.

  • 3.
    Lisovski, Simeon
    et al.
    Deakin Univ, Australia;Swiss Ornithol Inst, Switzerland.
    van Dijk, Jacintha G. B.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science. Netherlands Inst Ecol NIOO KNAW, Netherlands.
    Klinkenberg, Don
    Univ Utrecht, Netherlands;Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Netherlands.
    Nolet, Bart A.
    Netherlands Inst Ecol NIOO KNAW, Netherlands;Univ Amsterdam, Netherlands.
    Fouchier, Ron A. M.
    Erasmus MC, Netherlands.
    Klaassen, Marcel
    Deakin Univ, Australia.
    The roles of migratory and resident birds in local avian influenza infection dynamics2018In: Journal of Applied Ecology, ISSN 0021-8901, E-ISSN 1365-2664, Vol. 55, no 6, p. 2963-2975Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    1. Migratory birds are an increasing focus of interest when it comes to infection dynamics and the spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV). However, we lack detailed understanding of migratory birds' contribution to local AIV prevalence levels and their downstream socio-economic costs and threats. 2. To explain the potential differential roles of migratory and resident birds in local AIV infection dynamics, we used a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. We investigated five (mutually non- exclusive) mechanisms potentially driving observed prevalence patterns: (1) a pronounced birth pulse (e.g. the synchronised annual influx of immunologically naive individuals), (2) short-term immunity, (3) increase in susceptible migrants, (4) differential susceptibility to infection (i.e. transmission rate) for migrants and residents, and (5) replacement of migrants during peak migration. 3. SIR models describing all possible combinations of the five mechanisms were fitted to individual AIV infection data from a detailed longitudinal surveillance study in the partially migratory mallard duck (Anas platyrhynchos). During autumn and winter, the local resident mallard community also held migratory mallards that exhibited distinct AIV infection dynamics. 4. Replacement of migratory birds during peak migration in autumn was found to be the most important mechanism driving the variation in local AIV infection patterns. This suggests that a constant influx of migratory birds, likely immunological naive to locally circulating AIV strains, is required to predict the observed temporal prevalence patterns and the distinct differences in prevalence between residents and migrants. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our analysis reveals a key mechanism that could explain the amplifying role of migratory birds in local avian influenza virus infection dynamics; the constant flow and replacement of migratory birds during peak migration. Apart from monitoring efforts, in order to achieve adequate disease management and control in wildlife-with knock-on effects for livestock and humans,-we conclude that it is crucial, in future surveillance studies, to record host demographical parameters such as population density, timing of birth and turnover of migrants.

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