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  • 1.
    Bagliani, Marco
    et al.
    Università di Torino / Università di Brescia, Italy.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Università di Brescia, Italy.
    Dalmazzone, Silvana
    Università di Torino / Università di Brescia, Italy.
    A consumption-based approach to environmental Kuznets curves using the ecological footprint indicator2008In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 65, no 3, p. 650-661Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent research suggests that consumption-based measures offer an insightful perspective on the debate on the relationship between economic growth and the environment. In this article we deepen the consumption-based line of inquiry by investigating the empirical evidence in support of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis using 2001 ecological footprint data for 141 countries. We perform Ordinary Least Squares and Weighted Least Squares analysis on linear, quadratic and cubic functions, in standard and logarithmic specifications, as candidate models to represent the relationship between per capita income and environmental pressure. We replicate the cross country analysis also by estimating the regression function directly, through a nonparametric regression. In our analyses, with and without weighing data by population, the results do not show evidence of de-linking. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 2.
    Bertacchini, Enrico
    et al.
    Università di Torino.
    Bravo, GiangiacomoUniversità di Torino.Marrelli, MassimoUniversità di Napoli.Santagata, WalterUniversità di Torino.
    Cultural Commons: A New Perspective on the Production and Evolution of Cultures2012Collection (editor) (Refereed)
  • 3. Bertacchini, Enrico
    et al.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Universita di Torino, Italy.
    Marrelli, Massimo
    Santagata, Walter
    Defining cultural commons2012In: Cultural Commons: A NewPerspective on the Production and Evolution of Cultures / [ed] Bertacchini, E., Bravo, G., Marrelli, E. and Santagata, W., Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2012, p. 3-18Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 4.
    Bianchi, Federico
    et al.
    Univ Brescia, Italy.
    Francisco, Grimaldo
    Univ Valencia, Spain.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Flaminio, Squazzoni
    Univ Brescia, Italy.
    The peer review game: an agent-based model of scientists facing resource constraints and institutional pressures2018In: Scientometrics, ISSN 0138-9130, E-ISSN 1588-2861, Vol. 116, no 3, p. 1401-1420Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper looks at peer review as a cooperation dilemma through a game-theory framework. We built an agent-based model to estimate how much the quality of peer review is influenced by different resource allocation strategies followed by scientists dealing with multiple tasks, i.e., publishing and reviewing. We assumed that scientists were sensitive to acceptance or rejection of their manuscripts and the fairness of peer review to which they were exposed before reviewing. We also assumed that they could be realistic or excessively over-confident about the quality of their manuscripts when reviewing. Furthermore, we assumed they could be sensitive to competitive pressures provided by the institutional context in which they were embedded. Results showed that the bias and quality of publications greatly depend on reviewer motivations but also that context pressures can have a negative effect. However, while excessive competition can be detrimental to minimising publication bias, a certain level of competition is instrumental to ensure the high quality of publication especially when scientists accept reviewing for reciprocity motives.

  • 5. Boero, Riccardo
    et al.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Università di Brescia, Italy.
    Castellani, Marco
    Lagana, Francesco
    Squazzoni, Flaminio
    Pillars of Trust: An Experimental Study on Reputation and Its Effects2009In: Sociological research online, ISSN 1360-7804, E-ISSN 1360-7804, Vol. 14, no 5, p. Article ID: 5-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents the results of laboratory experiments on the relevance of reputation for trust and cooperation in social interaction. We have extended a repeated investment game by adding new treatments where reputation is taken more explicitly into account than before. We then compared treatments where the investor and the trustee rate each other and treatments where the investor and the trustee were rated by a third party. The results showed that: (i) third party reputation positively affects cooperation by encapsulating trust; (ii) certain differences in the reputation mechanism can generate different cooperation outcomes. These results have interesting implications for the recent sociological debate on the normative pillars of markets.

  • 6. Boero, Riccardo
    et al.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Universita di Torino, Italy.
    Castellani, Marco
    Squazzoni, Flaminio
    Reputational cues in repeated trust games2009In: The Journal of Socio-Economics, ISSN 1053-5357, E-ISSN 1879-1239, Vol. 38, no 6, p. 871-877Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The importance of reputation in human societies is highlighted both by theoretical models and empirical studies. In this paper, we have extended the scope of previous experimental studies based on trust games by creating treatments where players can rate their opponents’ behavior and know their past ratings. Our results showed that being rated by other players and letting this rating be known are factors that increase cooperation levels even when rational reputational investment motives are ruled out. More generally, subjects tended to respond to reputational opportunities even when this was neither rational nor explainable by reciprocity.

  • 7.
    Boero, Riccardo
    et al.
    University of Pavia, Italy / University of Surrey, UK.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Univ Turin, Italy / GECS Res Grp Expt & Computat Sociol.
    Castellani, Marco
    University of Brescia, Italy.
    Squazzoni, Flaminio
    University of Brescia, Italy.
    Why Bother with What Others Tell You?: An Experimental Data-Driven Agent-Based Model2010In: JASSS: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, ISSN 1460-7425, E-ISSN 1460-7425, Vol. 13, no 3, p. Article ID: 6-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the relevance of reputation to improve the explorative capabilities of agents in uncertain environments. We have presented a laboratory experiment where sixty-four subjects were asked to take iterated economic investment decisions. An agent-based model based on their behavioural patterns replicated the experiment exactly. Exploring this experimentally grounded model, we studied the effects of various reputational mechanisms on explorative capabilities at a systemic level. The results showed that reputation mechanisms increase the agents’ capability for coping with uncertain environments more than individualistic atomistic exploration strategies, although the former does entail a certain amount of false information inside the system.

  • 8.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    University of Turin, Italy.
    Agents’ beliefs and the evolution of institutions for common-pool resource management2011In: Rationality and Society, ISSN 1043-4631, E-ISSN 1461-7358, Vol. 23, no 1, p. 117-152Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The joint exploitation of open-access natural resources is often modeled as a social dilemma with no escape for rational actors. Nevertheless, real individuals are not helplessly trapped in this dilemma and are often able to sustainably manage their commons by building endogenous institutions. This paper proposes both a simple analytical model and a more complex agent-based one designed to study common-pool resource management problems with a specific focus on the relation between agents’ beliefs and institutions. The conditions where agents are allowed to build management institutions lead to much better outcomes than the ones where agents can only rely on individual beliefs in order to limit the resource consumption. This happens despite the fact that agents act in a competitive environment favoring high resource consumers.

  • 9.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Università di Brescia, Italy.
    Alle radici dello sviluppo insostenibile: Un’analisi degli effetti ambientali di società,istituzioni ed economia2009 (ed. 1)Book (Refereed)
  • 10.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    University of Turin, Italy.
    Azione umana e limiti dello sviluppo2010In: Le sfide della sostenibilità: risorse ambientali, qualità sociale e partecipazione pubblica / [ed] Gian Luigi Bulsei, Roma: Aracne editrice, 2010, p. 13-34Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [it]

    Secondo la nota definizione del Rapporto Brundtland, "è sostenibile uno sviluppo che soddisfi i bisogni del presente senza compromettere la capacità delle generazioni future di soddisfare i propri". Si tratta di un concetto di notevole portata innovativa, che mette in discussione alcuni tradizionali assiomi dell'economia e dovrebbe stimolare, soprattutto in tempi di crisi come gli attuali, sia le analisi teoriche sia le politiche pubbliche. La sostenibilità di una comunità è definibile in funzione di criteri non solamente ambientali, ma anche economici, sociali e istituzionali: essa è incompatibile con il degrado delle risorse naturali, il declino economico, la disuguaglianza sociale, l'illegalità e la violazione dei diritti. Il volume raccoglie contributi di studiosi di varie discipline, accomunati da una documentata e rigorosa riflessione sulle sfide derivanti dal fatto che ogni scelta compiuta oggi condiziona in modo irreversibile il nostro comune futuro. Contributi di Marco Bagliani, Giorgia Bella, Giangiacomo Bravo, Gian Luigi Bulsei, Giovanni Carrosio, Egidio Dansero, Francesco Ingravalle, Noemi Podestà, Matteo Putilli, Mario Salomone, Nadia Tecco, Tommaso Vitale.

  • 11.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    University of Torino, Italy.
    Book review: Cronk, Lee and Beth L. Leech (2012). Meeting at Grand Central: Understanding the Social and Evolutionary Roots of Cooperation.2013In: International Journal of the Commons, ISSN 1875-0281, E-ISSN 1875-0281, Vol. 7, no 1, p. 232-233Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 12.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    University of Torino, Italy / Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy.
    Book review: Phillip Bonacich and Philip Lu. 2012. Introduction to MathematicalSociology2012In: JASSS: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, ISSN 1460-7425, E-ISSN 1460-7425, Vol. 15, no 3Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 13.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Universita di Torino, Italy.
    Cultural commons and cultural evolution2012In: Cultural Commons: A New Perspective on the Production and Evolution of Cultures / [ed] Bertacchini, E., Bravo, G., Marrelli, E. and Santagata, W., Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2012, p. 36-57Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 14.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Empirical Agent-Based Modelling - Challenges and Solutions : Volume 1, the Characterisation and Parameterisation of Empirical Agent-Based Models: Smajgl, Alexander and Barreteau, Olivier (eds.)2014In: JASSS: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, ISSN 1460-7425, E-ISSN 1460-7425, Vol. 17, no 2Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 15.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Università di Brescia, Italy.
    Imitation and Cooperation in Different Helping Games2008In: JASSS: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, ISSN 1460-7425, E-ISSN 1460-7425, Vol. 11, no 1, p. Article ID: 8-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The relation between imitation and cooperation in evolutionary settings presents complex aspects. From one hand, in any environment where egoists are favored over cooperators by selection processes, imitation should lead to a further spreading of the former ones due to the combined processes of individual selection and replication of successful behaviors. On the other hand, if cooperators succeed in forming clusters of mutual helping individuals, imitation may have a positive effect on cooperation by further reproducing this locally dominant behavior. This paper explores the relationship between imitation and cooperation by mean of a simulation model based on two different Helping games. Our model shows that different imitation mechanisms can favor the spreading of cooperation under a wide range of conditions. Moreover, the interplay of imitation and other factors - e. g. the possibility of performing ‘conditional associations’ strategies - can further foster the success of cooperative agents.

  • 16.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    [ Review of ] Anderies, John M. and Marco A. Janssen (2013). Sustaining the Commons. Center for the Study of Institutional Diversity, Arizona State University2014In: International Journal of the Commons, ISSN 1875-0281, E-ISSN 1875-0281, Vol. 8, no 1, p. 259-260Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 17.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    The Dangers Of Ethnocentrism2014In: Proceedings of the 28th European Conference on Modelling and Simulation / [ed] Flaminio Squazzoni, Fabio Baronio, Claudia Archetti, Marco Castellani, ECMS European Council for Modelling and Simulation, 2014, p. 39-62Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Humans often alter their behavior depending on the opponent's group membership, with positive (e.g., support of same-group members) or negative (e.g., stereotyping, oppression, genocide) consequences. An influential model developed by Hammond and Axelrod highlighted the emergence of macro-level "ethnocentric cooperation" from the aggregation of micro-level interactions based on arbitrary tags signaling group membership. In this paper, we replicated this model and extended it to allow a wider array of possible agents' behaviors, including the possibility of harming others. This allowed us to check whether and under which conditions xenophobia can emerge beside or in alternative to ethnocentrism. Proceedings 28th European Conference on Modelling and Simulation

  • 18.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    The Human Sustainable Development Index2018In: Routledge Handbook of Sustainability Indicators / [ed] Simon Bell and Stephen Morse, Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2018, p. 284-293Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 19.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies. Coll Carlo Alberto, Turin, Italy.
    The Human Sustainable Development Index: New calculations and a first critical analysis2014In: Ecological Indicators, ISSN 1470-160X, E-ISSN 1872-7034, Vol. 37, p. 145-150Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Human Sustainable Development Index (HSDI) has been proposed as a way to amend the United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI) by adding an environmental dimension. Despite some attention in the media, the HSDI remained largely ignored by the scientific community. This paper aims at overcoming this issue by presenting an updated version of the index, based on recently available UN data, including a complete description of the procedure leading to its calculation and a critical assessment of its relation with some established environmental indicators. We found that, while the HSDI represents a step ahead from the HDI, it remains insufficient in its representation of environmental sustainability. A better equilibrium between social, economic and environmental goals is needed to reach a true index of sustainable development.

  • 20.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    The human sustainable development index: The 2014 update2015In: Ecological Indicators, ISSN 1470-160X, E-ISSN 1872-7034, Vol. 50, p. 258-259Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 21.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Univ Turin, Dept Social Sci, Turin, Italy / Coll Carlo Alberto, Turin, Italy.
    Voluntary contribution to public goods in mutual-help forums: reciprocity or group attachment?2010In: Socio-Economic Review, ISSN 1475-1461, E-ISSN 1475-147X, Vol. 8, no 4, p. 709-733Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies the provision of public goods in open-source software support forums. Data from the Italian TeX Users Group were analysed to find individual motives for offering help. Using this methodology, we were able to split the forum participants into a small intrinsically motivated core group and a much larger group motivated mainly on the basis of reciprocity. The motives of the two groups were largely complementary and jointly produced a situation where the overwhelming majority of questions received an appropriate answer. At the same time, the core group played a fundamental role and was the key in explaining the forum’s success. Without this group, the forum’s performance would have been considerably diminished, probably down to a level that would not justify its existence.

  • 22.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Università di Torino.
    Working together: II framework dei commons e le basi del suo successo2012In: Culture della sostenibilità, ISSN 1972-5817, Vol. 5, no 9, p. 139-148Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This work emphasizes the methodological roots behind the success of the so-called “commons framework”, which largely depended on the capacity of the commons research community to overcome methodological and disciplinary boundaries in the study of common-pool resource problems or, more generally, of human-environment interaction in socialecological systems. Mixing methods and disciplines leads to greater theoretical advancements thanks to a reduction of the arbitrary assumptions specific of each discipline and to an easier discrimination between alternative hypothesis. Overall, this produces the greater knowledge accumulation that characterizes successful scientific endeavours. While this comes at some costs in terms of larger funding, stronger organizational requirements, researchers’ training and academic acceptance, the history of the research on the commons shows that the long term benefits are overwhelming.

  • 23.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Università di Brescia, Italy.
    De Moor, Tine
    International Journal of the Commons, vol 2(2, Special issue): The Commons in Europe: from past to future2008Collection (editor) (Refereed)
  • 24.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Farjam, Mike
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Prospects and Challenges for the Computational Social Sciences2017In: Journal of universal computer science (Online), ISSN 0948-695X, E-ISSN 0948-6968, Vol. 23, no 11, p. 1057-1069Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Computational social sciences (CSS) refer to computer-enabled investigations of human behaviour and social interaction. They include three main components - (i) computational modelling and social simulation, (ii) the analysis of digital traces of online interactions, (iii) virtual labs and online experiments - and allow researchers to perform studies that were even hard to imagine a few decades ago. Moreover, CSS favour a more systematic test of theories and increase the possibility of study replication, two factors holding the potential to help social sciences reach a higher scientific status. Despite the huge potential of CSS, we follow previous works in identifying several impediments to a larger adoption of computational methods in social sciences. Most of them are linked with the humanistic attitude and a lack of technical skills of many social scientist. Significant changes in the basic training of social scientist and in the relation patterns with other disciplines and departments are needed before the potential of CSS can be fully exploited.

  • 25.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Farjam, Mike
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Moreno, Francisco Grimaldo
    University of Valencia, Spain.
    Birukou, Aliaksandr
    Springer Nature, Germany.
    Squazzoni, Flaminio
    University of Brescia, Italy.
    Hidden connections: Network effects on editorial decisions in four computer science journals2018In: Journal of Informetrics, ISSN 1751-1577, E-ISSN 1875-5879, Vol. 12, no 1, p. 101-112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper aims to examine the influence of authors’ reputation on editorial bias in scholarly journals. By looking at eight years of editorial decisions in four computer science journals, including 7179 observations on 2913 submissions, we reconstructed author/referee-submission networks. For each submission, we looked at reviewer scores and estimated the reputation of submission authors by means of their network degree. By training a Bayesian network, we estimated the potential effect of scientist reputation on editorial decisions. Results showed that more reputed authors were less likely to be rejected by editors when they submitted papers receiving negative reviews. Although these four journals were comparable for scope and areas, we found certain journal specificities in their editorial process. Our findings suggest ways to examine the editorial process in relatively similar journals without recurring to in-depth individual data, which are rarely available from scholarly journals.

  • 26.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Grimaldo, Francisco
    Univ Valencia, Spain.
    Lopez-Inesta, Emilia
    Univ Valencia, Spain.
    Mehmani, Bahar
    Elsevier,Netherlands.
    Squazzoni, Flaminio
    Univ Milan, Italy.
    The effect of publishing peer review reports on referee behavior in five scholarly journals2019In: Nature Communications, ISSN 2041-1723, E-ISSN 2041-1723, Vol. 10, article id 322Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To increase transparency in science, some scholarly journals are publishing peer review reports. But it is unclear how this practice affects the peer review process. Here, we examine the effect of publishing peer review reports on referee behavior in five scholarly journals involved in a pilot study at Elsevier. By considering 9,220 submissions and 18,525 reviews from 2010 to 2017, we measured changes both before and during the pilot and found that publishing reports did not significantly compromise referees' willingness to review, recommendations, or turn-around times. Younger and non-academic scholars were more willing to accept to review and provided more positive and objective recommendations. Male referees tended to write more constructive reports during the pilot. Only 8.1% of referees agreed to reveal their identity in the published report. These findings suggest that open peer review does not compromise the process, at least when referees are able to protect their anonymity.

  • 27.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Laitinen, Mikko
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Arts and Humanities, Department of Languages.
    Levin, Magnus
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Arts and Humanities, Department of Languages.
    Löwe, Welf
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of computer science and media technology (CM), Department of Computer Science.
    Petersson, Göran
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Medicine and Optometry.
    Big Data in Cross-Disciplinary Research: J.UCS Focused Topic2017In: Journal of universal computer science (Online), ISSN 0948-695X, E-ISSN 0948-6968, Vol. 23, no 11, p. 1035-1037Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 28.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Università di Brescia, Italy.
    Marelli, Beatrice
    Università di Brescia, Italy.
    Irrigation systems as common-pool resources: Examples from Northern Italy2008In: La Revue de Geographie Alpine, ISSN 0035-1121, E-ISSN 1760-7426, Vol. 96, no 3, p. 15-26Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Common-pool resources are natural or man-made resources shared among different users, a condition that produces a competition for their utilization leading often (although not necessarily) to their degradation or even to their destruction. This paper shortly discusses the “theory of the commons”, as developed in the last 20 years by Elinor Ostrom and her colleagues, and illustrates it by mean of case studies regarding a number of irrigation systems in Northern Italy (Lombardy and Vallee d’Aoste). We show that that different social mechanisms, like the shared values e the social network existing inside the community of users, play a significant role in influencing the outcomes of the institutional schemes for the commons management.

  • 29.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Pardalis, Georgios
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Built Environment and Energy Technology.
    Mahapatra, Krushna
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Built Environment and Energy Technology.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Built Environment and Energy Technology.
    Physical vs. Aesthetic Renovations: Learning from Swedish House Owners2019In: Buildings, ISSN 2075-5309, E-ISSN 2075-5309, Vol. 9, no 1, article id 12Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we identify the socio-economic attributes and attitudes that have influencedhouse owners in renovating their homes in the past. Our study is based on responses to an onlinequestionnaire survey of 971 house owners living in Kronoberg County in Sweden. Results showedthat the interest and willingness of the house owners to perform a renovation varied dependingon their demographic background and the age of the house. The latter positively affected pastrenovations, only when combined with the residence time. Furthermore, the age of house ownersstrongly and positively affected the probability of performing aesthetic type of renovations, becauseof a long time of residence in the house. Younger, town living, and highly educated house ownersseem to be more concerned regarding saving energy, which motivated them to perform physicalrenovations on their house. Our results also suggest that income, level of education, and place ofresidence have an effect on renovation decisions only through their effect on the energy concern ofhouse owners, and a varied effect on renovation decisions, when combined with the time of residencein the house.

  • 30.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies. Collegio Carlo Alberto, Moncalieri, Italy.
    Squazzoni, Flaminio
    University of Brescia, Italy.
    Exit, punishment and rewards in commons dilemmas: An experimental study2013In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 8, no 8, article id e69871Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Commons dilemmas are interaction situations where a common good is provided or exploited by a group of individuals so that optimal collective outcomes clash with private interests. Although in these situations, social norms and institutions exist that might help individuals to cooperate, little is known about the interaction effects between positive and negative incentives and exit options by individuals. We performed a modified public good game experiment to examine the effect of exit, rewards and punishment, as well as the interplay between exit and rewards and punishment. We found that punishment had a stronger effect than rewards on cooperation if considered by itself, whereas rewards had a stronger effect when combined with voluntary participation. This can be explained in terms of the `framing effect', i.e., as the combination of exit and rewards might induce people to attach higher expected payoffs to cooperative strategies and expect better behaviour from others.

  • 31.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Univ Turin, Coll Carlo Alberto, I-10124 Turin, Italy / GECS Res Grp Expt & Computat Sociol, Brescia, Italy.
    Squazzoni, Flaminio
    GECS Res Grp Expt & Computat Sociol, Brescia, Italy / Univ Brescia, Dipartimento Sociali, I-25121 Brescia, Italy .
    Boero, Riccardo
    GECS Res Grp Expt & Computat Sociol, Brescia, Italy / Univ Turin, Dipartimento Sci Econ & Finanziarie G Prato, I-10124 Turin, Italy.
    Trust and Partner Selection in Social Networks: An Experimentally Grounded Model2012In: Social Networks, ISSN 0378-8733, E-ISSN 1879-2111, Vol. 34, no 4, p. 481-492Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article investigates the importance of the endogenous selection of partners for trust and cooperation in market exchange situations, where there is information asymmetry between investors and trustees. We created an experimental-data driven agent-based model where the endogenous link between interaction outcome and social structure formation was examined starting from heterogeneous agent behaviour. By testing various social structure configurations, we showed that dynamic networks lead to more cooperation when agents can create more links and reduce exploitation opportunities by free riders. Furthermore, we found that the endogenous network formation was more important for cooperation than the type of network. Our results cast serious doubt about the static view of network structures on cooperation and can provide new insights into market efficiency.

  • 32.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Squazzoni, Flaminio
    University of Brescia, Italy.
    Takács, Károly
    Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Hungary.
    Intermediaries in Trust: Indirect Reciprocity, Incentives, and Norms2015In: Journal of Applied Mathematics, ISSN 1110-757X, E-ISSN 1687-0042, Vol. 2015, p. 1-12, article id 234528Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Any trust situation involves a certain amount of risk for trustors that trustees could abuse. In some cases, intermediaries exist whoplay a crucial role in the exchange by providing reputational information. To examine under what conditions intermediary opinioncould have a positive impact on cooperation, we designed two experiments based on a modified version of the investment gamewhere intermediaries rated the behaviour of trustees under various incentive schemes and different role structures. We found thatintermediaries can increase trust if there is room for indirect reciprocity between the involved parties. We also found that the effectof monetary incentives and social norms cannot be clearly separable in these situations. If properly designed, monetary incentivesfor intermediaries can have a positive effect. On the one hand, when intermediary rewards are aligned with the trustor’s interest,investments and returns tend to increase. On the other hand, fixed monetary incentives perform less than any other incentiveschemes and endogenous social norms in ensuring trust and fairness. These findings should make us reconsider the mantra ofincentivization of social and public conventional policy.

  • 33.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    University of Turin, Italy ; Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy.
    Tamburino, Lucia
    University of Padua, Italy.
    Are two resources really better than one?: Some unexpected results of the availability of substitutes2011In: Journal of Environmental Management, ISSN 0301-4797, E-ISSN 1095-8630, Vol. 92, no 11, p. 2865-2874Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The possibility of exploiting multiple resources is usually regarded as positive from both the economic and the environmental point of view. However, resource switching may also lead to unsustainable growth and, ultimately, to an equilibrium condition which is worse than the one that could have been achieved with a single resource. We developed a dynamic model where users exploit multiple resources and have different levels of preference among them. In this setting, exploiting multiple resources leads to worse outcomes in both economic and ecological terms than the single resource case under a wide range of parameter configurations. Our arguments are illustrated using two empirical situations, namely oil drilling in the North Sea and whale hunting in the Antarctic.

  • 34.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Università di Brescia, Italy.
    Tamburino, Lucia
    The evolution of trust in non-simultaneous exchange situations2008In: Rationality and Society, ISSN 1043-4631, E-ISSN 1461-7358, Vol. 20, no 1, p. 85-113Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Trust is an important concept that intersects a number of different disciplines, including economics, sociology, and political science, and maintains some meaning even in the natural sciences. Any situation where non-simultaneous exchanges between living organisms take place involves a problem of trust. We used computer simulations to study the evolution of trust in non-simultaneous exchange situations formalized by means of a Trust game. We found that trust and reciprocity-based cooperation are likely to emerge only when agents have the possibility of building trustworthy reputations and when the information regarding agents’ past behaviors is sufficiently spread in the system. Both direct and indirect reciprocity play a role in fostering cooperation. However, the strength of the latter is greater under most of the examined conditions. In general, our findings are consistent with theories arguing for a positive feedback relationship between trust, reputation, and reciprocity, leading together to higher levels of cooperation.

  • 35.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies. Coll Carlo Alberto, I-10024 Moncalieri, Italy.
    Vallino, Elena
    University of Torino, Italy.
    Cerutti, Alessandro K.
    University of Torino, Italy.
    Pairotti, Maria Beatrice
    University of Torino, Italy.
    Alternative scenarios of green consumption in Italy: An empirically grounded model2013In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 47, p. 225-234Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Any transition towards a more environmentally sustainable world will strongly depend on people’swillingness to adopt the best available practices. We present here the Consumption Italy (CITA) model, anempirically grounded agent-based model designed to represent household consumption in Italy and toestimate the related greenhouse gas emissions under different environmental policy scenarios. Weexplored the effect of a price increase for high impact goods and services (e.g., because of the intro-duction carbon taxes) and of a change of agents’ environmental concern (e.g., because of informationcampaigns). We found that both kind of actions can orient people consumption in the desired direction.However, their target and intensity should be carefully calibrated to produce significant effects at anacceptable cost.

  • 36.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Yantseva, Victoria
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Cooperation and conflict in segregated populations2018In: Social science computer review, ISSN 0894-4393, E-ISSN 1552-8286, p. 1-17Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Humans behavior often varies depending on the opponent’s group membership, with both positive consequences (e.g., cooperation or mutual help) and negative ones (e.g., stereotyping, oppression, or even genocide). An influential model developed by Hammond and Axelrod (HA) highlighted the emergence of macrolevel “ethnocentric cooperation” from the aggregation of microlevel interactions based on arbitrary tags signaling group membership. We extended this model to include a wider set of agents’ behaviors including the possibility of harming others. This allowed to check whether and under which conditions xenophobia can emerge beside or in alternative to ethnocentric cooperation. The model was compared to Swedish data documenting social unrest and proxies of cooperative behaviors at the municipal level. The validation results supported the model predictions on conflict but not the ones on cooperation, casting doubts on HA’s original argument.

  • 37. Casnici, Niccolò
    et al.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Universita di Torino, Italy.
    Castellani, Marco
    Squazzoni, Flaminio
    Cooperazione, fiducia e differenze digenere: un’indagine cross-metodologica2012In: Rassegna italiana di sociologia, ISSN 0486-0349, Vol. 53, no 4, p. 573-600Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates gender differences in cooperation and trust through a cross-methodological study that combined lab experiment and trust survey. First, we performed a repeated investment game played by 108 students, where a trust-based market interaction was modeled based on asymmetries of information. Results indicated that females were more trustworthy, being more sensitive to cooperation when being trusted by others, whereas males tended to take higher risk investment when trust was relatively more rewarding. A trust survey on a population of 488 students completed the experimental results by looking at general aspects of trust perception of subjects. Also empirical results confirmed significant gender differences in trust, being females more influenced by generalized trust and interpersonal obligations.

  • 38.
    Drvenica, Ivana
    et al.
    Univ Belgrade, Serbia.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Vejmelka, Lucija
    Univ Zagreb, Croatia.
    Dekanski, Aleksandar
    Univ Belgrade, Serbia.
    Nedić, Olgica
    Univ Belgrade, Serbia.
    Peer review of reviewers: the author’s perspective2018In: Publications, E-ISSN 2304-6775, Vol. 7, no 1, p. 1-10, article id 1Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this study was to investigate the opinion of authors on the overall quality and effectiveness of reviewers' contributions to reviewed papers. We employed an on-line survey of thirteen journals which publish articles in the field of life, social or technological sciences. Responses received from 193 authors were analysed using a mixed-effects model in order to determine factors deemed the most important in the authors' evaluation of the reviewers. Qualitative content analysis of the responses to open questions was performed as well. The mixed-effects model revealed that the authors' assessment of the competence of referees strongly depended on the final editorial decision and that the speed of thereview process was influential as well. In Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) analysis on seven questions detailing authors' opinions, perception ofreview speed remained a significant predictor of the assessment. In addition, both the perceived competence and helpfulness of the reviewerssignificantly and positively affected the authors' evaluation. New models were used to re-check the value of these two factors and it was confirmed that the assessment of the competence of reviewers strongly depended on the final editorial decision.

  • 39.
    Farjam, Mike
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Dataset fo Investing into climate change mitigation initiatives despite the risk of failure: Version 2.02018Data set
  • 40.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller Univ, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Does risk communication really decrease cooperation in climate change mitigation?2018In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 149, no 2, p. 147-158Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Effective communication of risks involved in the climate change discussion is crucial and despite ambitious protection policies, the possibility of irreversible consequences actually occurring can only be diminished but never ruled out completely. We present a laboratory experiment that studies how residual risk of failure of climate change policies affects willingness to contribute to such policies. Despite prevailing views on people's risk aversion, we found that contributions were higher at least in the final part of treatments including a residual risk. We interpret this as the product of a psychological process where residual risk puts participants into an "alarm mode," keeping their contributions high. We discuss the broad practical implications this might have on the real-world communication of climate change.

  • 41.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller University, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Experimental evidence of an attitude-behaviour gap forclimate change mitigation in high cost conditions2019Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An established research result is that people's environmental attitudes only loosely translate into actions effectively reducing their environmental impact, something known as the attitude-behaviour gap. On the other hand, correct information and environmental education are often considered a key to promote sustainability, which raises the question of when attitudes can actually work as a lever to promote environmental objectives and, conversely, when other factors have a better chance to succeed. To answer these questions, we tested the effect of environmental attitudes in an online experiment with real money at stake and real-world climate mitigation consequences. We found that environmental attitudes mainly affected behaviour in a low cost situation, while their effect was reduced when the stakes were higher. This finding is consistent with the low cost hypothesis of environmental behaviour and has important consequences for the shaping of more effective climate policies in a democratic context.

  • 42.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller University, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Experimental evidence of an environmental attitude-behavior gap in high-cost situations2019In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 166, p. 1-12, article id 106434Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    So far, there has been mixed evidence in the literature regarding the relationship between environmental attitudes and actual `green' actions, something known as the attitude-behavior gap. This raises the question of when attitudes can actually work as a lever to promote environmental objectives, such as climate change mitigation, and, conversely, when other factors would be more effective. This paper presents an online experiment with real money at stake and real-world consequences designed to test the effect of environmental attitudes on behavior under various conditions. We found that environmental attitudes affected behavior only in low-cost situations. This finding is consistent with the low-cost hypothesis of environmental behavior postulating that concerned individuals will undertake low-cost actions in order to reduce the cognitive dissonance  between their attitudes and rational realization of the environmental impact of their behavior but avoid higher-cost actions despite their greater potential as far as environmental protection. This finding has important consequences for the design of more effective climate policies in a democratic context as it puts limits on what can be achieved by raising environmental concern alone.

    The full text will be freely available from 2021-09-01 08:00
  • 43.
    Farjam, Mike
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Nikolaychuk, Olexandr
    Friedrich Schiller University, Germany.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Investing into climate change mitigation despite the risk of failure2019In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 154, no 3-4, p. 453-460Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to convince both policy makers and the general public to engage in climate change mitigation activities, it is crucial to communicate the inherent risks in an effective way. Due to the complexity of the system, mitigation activities cannot completely rule out the possibility of the climate reaching a dangerous tipping point but can only reduce it to some unavoidable residual risk level. We present an online experiment based on a sample of US citizens and designed to improve our understanding of how the presence of such residual risk affects the willingness to invest into climate change mitigation. We found that, far from reducing them, the presence of residual risk actually increases investments into mitigation activities. This result suggests that scientists and policy makers should consider being more transparent about communicating the residual risks entailed by such initiatives.

  • 44.
    Garbarini, Francesca
    et al.
    Univ Turin, Italy.
    Riccardo, Boero
    Los Alamos Natl Lab, USA.
    Francesco, D'Agata
    Univ Turin, Italy.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Cristina, Mosso
    Univ Turin, Italy.
    Franco, Cauda
    Univ Turin, Italy.
    Sergio, Duca
    Koelliker Hosp, CCS FMRI, Turin, Italy.
    Giuliano, Geminiani
    Univ Turin, Italy.
    Katiuscia, Sacco
    Univ Turin, Italy.
    Neural Correlates of Gender Differences in Reputation Building2014In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 9, no 9, p. e106285-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Gender differences in cooperative choices and their neural correlates were investigated in a situation where reputation represented a crucial issue. Males and females were involved in an economic exchange (trust game) where economic and reputational payoffs had to be balanced in order to increase personal welfare. At the behavioral level, females showed a stronger reaction to negative reputation judgments that led to higher cooperation than males, measured by back transfers in the game. The neuroanatomical counterpart of this gender difference was found within the reward network (engaged in producing expectations of positive results) and reputation-related brain networks, such as the self-control network (engaged in strategically resisting the temptation to defect) and the mentalizing network (engaged in thinking about how one is viewed by others), in which the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and the medial (M)PFC respectively play a crucial role. Furthermore, both DLPFC and MPFC activity correlated with the amount of back transfer, as well as with the personality dimensions assessed with the Big-Five Questionnaire (BFQ-2). Males, according to their greater DLPFC recruitment and their higher level of the BFQ-2 subscale of Dominance, were more focused on implementing a profit-maximizing strategy, pursuing this target irrespectively of others' judgments. On the contrary, females, according to their greater MPFC activity and their lower level of Dominance, were more focused on the reputation per se and not on the strategic component of reputation building. These findings shed light on the sexual dimorphism related to cooperative behavior and its neural correlates.

  • 45.
    Gargano, Francesco
    et al.
    University of Palermo, Italy.
    Tamburino, Lucia
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Mathematics.
    Bagarello, Fabio
    University of Palermo, Italy ; INFN National Institute for Nuclear Physics, Italy.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Large-scale effects of migration and conflict in pre-agricultural groups: Insights from a dynamic model2017In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 12, no 3, article id e0172262Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The debate on the causes of conflict in human societies has deep roots. In particular, the extent of conflict in hunter-gatherer groups remains unclear. Some authors suggest that large-scale violence only arose with the spreading of agriculture and the building of complex societies. To shed light on this issue, we developed a model based on operatorial techniques simulating population-resource dynamics within a two-dimensional lattice, with humans and natural resources interacting in each cell of the lattice. The model outcomes under different conditions were compared with recently available demographic data for prehistoric South America. Only under conditions that include migration among cells and conflict was the model able to consistently reproduce the empirical data at a continental scale. We argue that the interplay between resource competition, migration, and conflict drove the population dynamics of South America after the colonization phase and before the introduction of agriculture. The relation between population and resources indeed emerged as a key factor leading to migration and conflict once the carrying capacity of the environment has been reached.

  • 46.
    Ghorbani, Amineh
    et al.
    Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Managing the Commons: A Simple Model of the Emergence of Institutions Through Collective Action2016In: International Journal of the Commons, ISSN 1875-0281, E-ISSN 1875-0281, Vol. 10, no 1, p. 200-219Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we present an abstract replication of institutional emergence patterns observed in common pool resource (CPR) problems. We used the ADICO grammar of institutions as the basic structure to model both users' strategies and institutions. Through an evolutionary process, users modify their behaviours and eventually establish a management institution for their CPR system, leading to significant benefits both for them and for the commons as a whole. We showed that, even with a high level of abstraction, by taking an evolutionary perspective and using the ADICO structure, we are able to observe common institutional patterns. We confirmed that, even within this simplified environment, institutions significantly contributed to the sustainable management of common-pool resource systems.

  • 47.
    Ghorbani, Amineh
    et al.
    Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Frey, Ulrich
    German Aerospace Center (DLR), Germany.
    Theesfeld, Insa
    Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Germany.
    Self-organization in the commons: An empirically-tested model2017In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 96, p. 30-45Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A appropriate bottom-up rule system can support the sustainability of common-pool resources such as forests and fisheries. The process that leads to the developments of such institutional settings requires the considerations of multiple social, physical, and institutional factors over long time horizons. In this paper, we present the SONICOM model as a general exploratory model of CPR systems. The model can be configured to represent different CPR systems in order to explore what kind of institutional settings result in stable systems, i.e. situations where the resource and the appropriators are in a state of well-being. We use a large-N-dataset of CPR management institutions to validate the model. The results show numerous correlations between various parameters of the system such as rule compliance, social influence and resource growth rate which help explaining the process of institutional emergence as well as unveiling the conditions under which systems are stable.

  • 48.
    Natalini, Davide
    et al.
    Anglia Ruskin University, UK.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Encouraging Sustainable Transport Choices in American Households: Results from an Empirically Grounded  Agent-Based Model2014In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 50-69Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The transport sector needs to go through an extended process of decarbonisation to counter the threat of climate change. Unfortunately, the International Energy Agency forecasts an enormous growth in the number of cars and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Two issues can thus be identified: (1) the need for a new methodology that could evaluate the policy performances ex-ante and (2) the need for more effective policies. To help address these issues, we developed an Agent-Based Model called Mobility USA aimed at: (1) testing whether this could be an effective approach in analysing ex-ante policy implementation in the transport sector; and (2) evaluating the effects of alternative policy scenarios on commuting behaviours in the USA. Particularly, we tested the effects of two sets of policies, namely market-based and preference-change ones. The model results suggest that this type of agent-based approach will provide a useful tool for testing policy interventions and their effectiveness.

  • 49.
    Natalini, Davide
    et al.
    Anglia Ruskin University, UK.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Jones, Aled Wynne
    Anglia Ruskin University, UK.
    Global food security and food riots: an agent-based modelling approach2017In: Food Security, ISSN 1876-4517, E-ISSN 1876-4525Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model’s forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises.

  • 50.
    Natalini, Davide
    et al.
    Anglia Ruskin University, UK.
    Jones, Aled W.
    Anglia Ruskin University, UK.
    Bravo, Giangiacomo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.
    Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries2015In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 7, no 4, p. 4360-4385Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to politicalleaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of) access tocritical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead toviolent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility indices tosee whether they are good indicators of propensity to food riots. We found that the mostaccurate is the Political Instability and Absence of Violence Indicator of the WorldwideGovernance Indicators by the World Bank. We compute a likelihood of experiencing afood riot for each quartile of this index. We found that the self-sufficiency of food does notseem to affect the likelihood of the occurrence of food riots, but that the level of politicalstability of a country does have a role. In addition, we identify a monthly and annualthreshold for the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, above which foodriots in fragile states are more likely to occur.

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