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  • 1.
    Anxo, Dominique
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Forslind, Rikard
    Stockholms universitet.
    Hassler, John
    Stockholms universitet.
    Krusell, Per
    Stockholms universitet.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics. Institutet för framtidsstudier.
    Waldenström, Daniel
    Råd till en finansminister2010Report (Other academic)
  • 2.
    de la Croix, David
    et al.
    IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain-le-Neuve.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Institute for Future Studies.
    Malmberg, Bo
    (Kulturgeografiska institutionen, Stockholms universitet.
    Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Sweden: 1750-20502009In: Journal of macroeconomics, ISSN 0164-0704, E-ISSN 1873-152X, Vol. 31, no 1, p. 132-148Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper addresses two issues. To what extent can models estimated on modern data be used to account for growth patterns in the past? Can information on historical patterns help to improve long-term forecasting of economic growth? We consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. The results indicate that the assumption of a common DGP can be warranted, at least back to 1870. Given the stability of the relationship between population and growth, we use the model to forecast income for the next 50 years. We compare our approach to a previous attempt to simulate the long-term Swedish growth path with an endogenous growth model. Encompassing tests show that each of the models contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting.

  • 3.
    de la Croix, David
    et al.
    Department of Economics, Universit´e catholique de Louvain.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Institute for Future Studies, Stockholm.
    Malmberg, Bo
    Institute for Future Studies, Stockholm.
    Swedish Economic Growth and Education Since 1800.2008In: Canadian Journal of Economics, ISSN 0008-4085, E-ISSN 1540-5982, Vol. 41, no 1, p. 166-185Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    De la Croix is also affiliated with CORE; Malmberg is also affiliated with the Department of Geography, Stockholm University. De la Croix acknowledges financial support from the Belgian French speaking community (Grant ARC 03/08-235 ‘New macroeconomic approaches to the development problem’) and the Belgian Federal Government (Grant PAI P6/07 ‘Economic policy and finance in the global economy: equilibrium analysis and social evaluation’). We are grateful to two referees, Fati Shadman, and participants at seminars at IRES, European Central Bank, PAA 2006 (Population Association of America), and International Symposium for Forecasters for useful comments on an earlier draft.

  • 4.
    Ekberg, Jan
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Economics and Statistics.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Economics and Statistics.
    Immigrants in the Old-Age Pension System: The Case of Sweden2016In: International migration (Geneva. Print), ISSN 0020-7985, E-ISSN 1468-2435, Vol. 54, no 5, p. 5-14Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The article investigates incomes and especially state pensions 2008 among elderly immigrants who arrived in Sweden before 1970. At age 70 and above, the level of state old-age pension for immigrant men was nearly the same and for immigrant women somewhat higher than for natives with similar characteristics. At age 65-66 the state pension was lower for immigrants than for their native counterparts. The differences in pensions for immigrants of different ages are probably due to changed rules in the Swedish state old-age pension system from 2003. The new rules have hit different age groups in different ways. The gaps are partially levelled out when other incomes are included. The extent to which levelling occurs varies greatly between different immigrant groups. For immigrants who have arrived during the last decades, the future state old-age pension outcomes are expected to be worse.

  • 5. Eklöf, Matias
    et al.
    Baroni, Elisa
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Öberg, Gustav
    The Link between Intergenerational Transfer Systems: An Agent-Based Simulation Approach2006Conference paper (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 6. Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia
    et al.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    The impact of ageing on innovation and productivity growth in Europe2006Report (Other academic)
  • 7. Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia
    et al.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    The Relationship Between Demographic Change and Economic Growth in the EU2007Report (Other academic)
  • 8. Hallberg, Daniel
    et al.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Does public spending on the family in Sweden compensate the higher opportunity costs of children for the high educated?2007Conference paper (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 9.
    Hallberg, Daniel
    et al.
    Inst Future Studies.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Öberg, Gustav
    Inst Future Studies.
    Thulstrup, Charlotte
    Inst Future Studies.
    Intergenerational Redistribution in Sweden’s Public and Private Sectors.2011In: Population Aging And The Generational Economy—A Global Perspective / [ed] Ronald Lee , Andrew Mason, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2011, p. 421-434Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 10.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Befolkningen förändras och samhället omvandlas2006In: Agoras Årsbok 2006: UNGAS FRAMTIDSVÄGAR-Möjligheter och utmaningar, p. 26-35Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 11.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Different Approaches to Providing Intergenerational Transfers in Aging Societies2010In: Repositioning Europe and America for Growth: the role of governments and private actors in key policy areas / [ed] Bohne, Eberhard and Karlsson, Charlie, Berlin: LIT Verlag, 2010, p. 317-335Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 12.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Föryngring på väg - arbetsmarknaden om tio år2007In: Framtider, no 1Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 13.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Generationsväxlingens problem och möjligheter2006In: Bilaga till "Samverkan för ungas etablering på arbetsmarknaden" SOU 2006:102, Fritzes förlag, Stockholm , 2006, p. 7-62.Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 14.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Long-Horizon Growth Forecasting and Demography.2011In: Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting. / [ed] Hendry, David F. and Clements, Michael,, Oxford University Press, 2011, p. 585-606Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 15.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Review of “Anne H. Gauthier, C.Y. Cyrus Chu and Shripad Tuljapurkar (eds): Allocating Public and Private Resources Across Generations. Riding the Age Waves—Volume 2, Series: International Studies in population, Vol. 3.2008In: European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie, Vol. 24, no 3, p. 343-344Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 16.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics. Inst Futures Studies, Stockholm.
    Social Investment in the Ageing Populations of Europe.2011In: Towards a social investment welfare state? : Ideas, Policies and Challenges / [ed] Nathalie Morel, Bruno Palier, Joakim Palme, Policy Press, 2011, p. 261-284Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 17.
    Lindh, Thomas
    University of Kalmar, Baltic Business School.
    Sverige i en åldrande värld: framtidsperspektiv på den demografiska utvecklingen2008Report (Other academic)
  • 18.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Sverige i en åldrande värld: framtidsperspektiv på den demografiska utvecklingen2008Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 19.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Sverige i världen – att vända faran till fördel: Åldrandets många möjligheter2007Book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 20.
    Lindh, Thomas
    University of Kalmar, Baltic Business School.
    The Future Needs for Social Investment: Sweden as a Pilot Case.2009In: What Future for Social Investment? / [ed] Nathalie Morel, Bruno Palier and Joakim Palme, Institutet för framtidsstudier , 2009, p. 131-143Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 21.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics.
    The Future Needs for Social Investment: Sweden as a Pilot Case2009In: What Future for Social Investment? / [ed] Nathalie Morel, Bruno Palier and Joakim Palme, Stockholm: Institutet för Framtidsstudier , 2009, p. 131-143Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 22.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Anxo, Dominique
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Vägen ur arbetslösheten2010In: Konjunkturrådets rapport 2010: Råd till en finansminister / [ed] Stefan Lundgren, SNS förlag, 2010Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 23.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics.
    Baroni, Elisa
    Institutet för Framtidsstudier.
    Hallberg, Daniel
    Institutet för Framtidsstudier.
    Eklöf, Matias
    Handelsbanken.
    Zamac, Jovan
    Nationalekonomiska institutionen, Uppsala universitet.
    Fertility decisions – simulation in an agent-based model (IFSIM)2009In: New frontiers in Microsimulation Modelling, Part III. / [ed] A Zaidi, A Harding, P Williamson, Ashgate , 2009Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 24.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    University of Kalmar, Baltic Business School.
    Baroni, Elisa
    Hallberg, Daniel
    Eklöf, Matias
    Zamac, Jovan
    Fertility decisions – simulation in an agent-based model (IFSIM)2009In: New frontiers in Microsimulation Modelling: Part III / [ed] A Zaidi, A Harding, P Williamson, Ashgate, 2009Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 25.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    de la Croix, David
    Malmberg, Bo
    Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society2006Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 26.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    de la Croix, David
    Malmberg, Bo
    Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society2006Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 27.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Ekberg, Jan
    Pensionsreformen och invandrarna2011In: Ekonomisk Debatt, Vol. 39, no 5, p. 33-40Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 28.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Hallberg, Daniel
    Inspektionen för socialförsäkringar.
    Zamac, Jovan
    Institutet för framtidsstudier.
    Är föräldrar effektivare studenter?2011In: Ekonomisk Debatt, Vol. 39, no 8, p. 20-36Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 29.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Lundberg, Urban
    Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Predicaments in the futures of aging democracies2008In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 40, no 3, p. 203-217Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ageing societies need to supply support to an ever growing segment of elderly dependent population without compromising the future sustainability for the currently young or unborn population. Current tendencies to focus on policy solutions like automatic stabilisers and norm-based pre-commitment strategies with decisions delegated to experts carry a high risk of political breakdown when the future population re-evaluates this with new information. Using the Swedish pension reform as a concrete example we show how the futurity problem associated with the current non-existence of the future population makes the political process prone to avoid bringing issues with very long horizons into the public debate. Alternative demographic scenarios for Sweden are used to illustrate how even very small variations in the assumptions of demographic projections lead to radically different future population structures. Hence, the majority preferences in a distant future cannot be foreseen. Adding to this, the complex interactions with a changing environment of technology and nature time-consistent decision making at the far future horizon must be virtually impossible. Thus, the sustainability of long-term social security systems requires constitutional balances that provide for orderly and continual adaptation rather than once-for-all fixes that are likely to be rejected by future electorates.

  • 30.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Malmberg, Bo
    Age structure effects on investment, saving and trade2007In: Population aging, intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy, Northampton, USA: Edward Elgar Publishing , 2007Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 31.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Malmberg, Bo
    Ageing and the German Economy: Age-structure Effects Based on International Comparisons2010Book (Other academic)
  • 32.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Malmberg, Bo
    Demographic perspectives in housing.2012In: The International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home / [ed] Susan J. Smith, Elsevier, 2012Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 33.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Malmberg, Bo
    Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 20502007In: International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 23, no 4, p. 2007-Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 34.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Institute for Futures Studies, P.O. Box 591, 10131, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Malmberg, Bo
    Department of Human Geography, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden .
    Demography and housing demand: What can we learn from residential construction data?2008In: Journal of Population Economics, ISSN 0933-1433, E-ISSN 1432-1475, Vol. 21, no 3, p. 521-539Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There are obvious reasons why residential construction should depend on the population’s age structure. We estimate this relation on Swedish time series data and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development panel data. Large groups of young adults are associated with higher rates of residential construction, but there is also a significant negative effect from those above 75. Age effects on residential investment are robust and forecast well out-of-sample in contrast to the corresponding house price results. This may explain why the debate around house prices and demography has been rather inconclusive. Rapidly aging populations in the industrialized world makes the future look bleak for the construction industry.

  • 35.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Malmberg, Bo
    EU economic growth and the age structure of the population2007Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 36.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Malmberg, Bo
    Kulturgeografiska institutionen, Stockholms universitet.
    EU Economic Growth and the Age Structure of the Population2009In: Economic Change and Restructuring, ISSN 1573-9414, E-ISSN 1574-0277, Vol. 42, no 3, p. 159-187Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We test the robustness of correlations between age structure and economic growth in EU15 countries by replicating a previous OECD study. A hump-shaped relation with the age structure is confirmed where increases in the dependent age group shares are associated with decreasing GDP growth rates. In addition we confirm that the peak of the hump is in the upper part of the working age population. Models estimated on data up to 1990 agree quite well when data for 15 more years are added. Sensitivity tests, instrumented regressions and addition of control variables do not change this conclusion. Thus, the age profile of correlations between age and economic growth is robust over time. This motivates a prospective analysis of future effects ageing will have on EU growth. The basic conclusion from this exercise is that ageing will be accompanied by stagnation in GDP growth, but at rather different time horizons.

  • 37.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics.
    Malmberg, Bo
    Kulturgeografi, Stockholms universitet.
    Macroeconomics and age structure in a welfare state—Sweden 1946-20052008In: Demographic Change and Intergenerational Justice: The Implementation of Long-Term Thinking in the Political Decision Making Process / [ed] Jörg Chet Tremmel, Springer Berlin/Heidelberg, 2008, p. 71-95Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 38.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Malmberg, Bo
    Macroeconomics and age structure in a welfare state—Sweden 1946-20052008In: Demographic Change and Intergenerational Justice:: The Implementation of Long-Term Thinking in the Political Decision Making Process,, Springer Berlin , 2008, p. 51-95Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 39.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Malmberg, Bo
    Palme, Joakim
    Generationskrig eller uthållig socialpolitik i åldrande samhällen?2006In: Tidskrift för politisk filosofi, Vol. 10, no 3, p. 19-62Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 40.
    Lindh, Thomas
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Petersen, Thiess
    Bertelsmann Stiftung.
    Malmberg, Bo
    Kulturgeografi, Stockholms universitet.
    Die ökonomischen Konsequenzen der gesellschaftlichen Alterung2010In: Wirtschaftsdienst, ISSN 0043-6275, E-ISSN 1613-978X, Vol. 90, no 1, p. 54-63Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 41. Malmberg, Bo
    et al.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Forecasting global income growth using age-structure projections2006In: Age-structural transitions: Challenges for development, CICRED, Paris , 2006, p. 59-82Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 42. Malmberg, Bo
    et al.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics.
    Halvarsson, Max
    Productivity consequences of workforce ageing - Stagnation or a Horndal effect?2008In: Population and Development Review, ISSN 0098-7921, E-ISSN 1728-4457, Vol. 34, no Supplement, p. 238-256Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 43. Palme, Joakim
    et al.
    Lindh, Thomas
    Växjö University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of Management and Economics. Nationalekonomi och statistik.
    Sustainable Policies in an Ageing Europe. A human capital response2006Report (Other academic)
  • 44. Zamac, Jovan
    et al.
    Hallberg, Daniel
    Lindh, Thomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
    Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector.2010In: European Journal of Population, ISSN 0168-6577, E-ISSN 1572-9885, Vol. 26, no 2, p. 183-205Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught

    in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be

    social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction

    mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent-based

    simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth

    and population path is calibrated to Swedish data using the Swedish social policy

    setup. The model is provoked into a fertility trap by increasing relative child costs

    linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then

    insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily

    enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the

    adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.

1 - 44 of 44
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