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  • 1.
    Alriksson, Stina
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Filipsson, Monika
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Risk perception and worry in environmental decision-making - a case study within the Swedish steel industry2017In: Journal of Risk Research, ISSN 1366-9877, E-ISSN 1466-4461, Vol. 20, no 9, 1173-1194 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Sustainable development is an important issue for the industry in order to fulfil legislation requirements and to be able to use green marketing as a competitive advantage. The Swedish steel industry has implemented a large number of environmental improvements, for example, within energy efficiency, raw materials and recyclability. Technical improvements can help the industry decrease its environmental impact; however, in order to reach sustainable development, more factors need to be considered: an effective environmental decision-making process, for example. This process may be influenced by personal factors such as risk perception and worry, which are factors that will not contribute to an effective decision-making process. The aim of this study was to investigate if personal worry and risk perception influenced environmental decision-making within the Swedish steel industry. Thirty-eight interviews were performed at 10 Swedish steelworks using the Q-methodology. The major perceived environmental risks with the facility and personal worry were assessed, compared to the day-to-day work. It was concluded that the major perceived risks were emissions of carbon dioxide, use of non-renewable energy and emissions of particulate matter. The decision-makers were mainly worried about emissions of carbon dioxide, emissions of dioxin and use of non-renewable energy. The environmental issues that were prioritised in practice (day-to-day work) were emissions of carbon dioxide, emissions of particulate matter and emissions of metals. Even though emissions of carbon dioxide were given the highest priority in the Q-sorts, there was in general no clear relationship between risk perception and personal worry with the prioritised environmental issues at the steelworks. The quantitative analysis of the Q-sorts and the qualitative interviews both showed that the day-to-day work was unaffected by personal worry and risk.

  • 2.
    Augustsson, Anna
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Filipsson, Monika
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Bergbäck, Bo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Öberg, Tomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    The aspect of climate change in risk assessment of contaminated land2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 3.
    Augustsson, Anna
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Filipsson, Monika
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Öberg, Tomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Bergbäck, Bo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Climate change - an uncertainty factor in risk analysis of contaminated land2011In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 409, no 22, 4693-4700 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Metals frequently occur at contaminated sites, where their potential toxicity and persistence require risk assessments that consider possible long-term changes. Changes in climate are likely to affect the speciation, mobility, and risks associated with metals. This paper provides an example of how the climate effect can be inserted in a commonly used exposure model, and how the exposure then changes compared to present conditions. The comparison was made for cadmium (Cd) exposure to 4-year-old children at a highly contaminated iron and steel works site in southeastern Sweden. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches (through probability bounds analysis, PBA) were used in the exposure assessment. Potential climate-sensitive variables were determined by a literature review. Although only six of the total 39 model variables were assumed to be sensitive to a change in climate (groundwater infiltration, hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture, soil:water distribution, and two bioconcentration factors), the total exposure was clearly affected. For example, by altering the climate-sensitive variables in the order of 15% to 20%, the deterministic estimate of exposure increased by 27%. Similarly, the PBA estimate of the reasonable maximum exposure (RME, defined as the upper bound of the 95th percentile) increased by almost 20%. This means that sites where the exposure in present conditions is determined to be slightly below guideline values may in the future exceed these guidelines, and risk management decisions could thus be affected. The PBA, however, showed that there is also a possibility of lower exposure levels, which means that the changes assumed for the climate-sensitive variables increase the total uncertainty in the probabilistic calculations. This highlights the importance of considering climate as a factor in the characterization of input data to exposure assessments at contaminated sites. The variable with the strongest influence on the result was the soil:water distribution coefficient (Kd).

  • 4.
    Augustsson, Anna
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Uddh Söderberg, Terese
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Hogmalm, Johan
    University of Gothenburg.
    Filipsson, Monika
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Metal uptake by homegrown vegetables: the relative importance in human health risk assessments at contaminated sites2015In: Environmental Research, ISSN 0013-9351, E-ISSN 1096-0953, Vol. 138, 181-190 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Risk assessments of contaminated land often involve the use of generic bioconcentration factors (BCFs),which express contaminant concentrations in edible plant parts as a function of the concentration in soil,in order to assess the risks associated with consumption of homegrown vegetables. This study aimed toquantify variability in BCFs and evaluate the implications of this variability for human exposure as-sessments, focusing on cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) in lettuce and potatoes sampled around 22 con-taminated glassworks sites. In addition, risks associated with measured Cd and Pb concentrations in soiland vegetable samples were characterized and a probabilistic exposure assessment was conducted toestimate the likelihood of local residents exceeding tolerable daily intakes. The results show that con-centrations in vegetables were only moderately elevated despite high concentrations in soil, and mostsamples complied with applicable foodstuff legislation. Still, the daily intake of Cd (but not Pb) wasassessed to exceed toxicological thresholds for about afifth of the study population. Bioconcentrationfactors were found to vary more than indicated by previous studies, but decreasing BCFs with increasingmetal concentrations in the soil can explain why the calculated exposure is only moderately affected bythe choice of BCF value when generic soil guideline values are exceeded and the risk may be un-acceptable.

  • 5.
    Filipsson, Monika
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Environmental Risk Assessment - Uncertainty, variability and statistical methods2009Licentiate thesis, monograph (Other academic)
  • 6.
    Filipsson, Monika
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Uncertainty, variability and environmental risk analysis2011Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The negative effects of hazardous substances and possible measures that can be taken are evaluated in the environmental risk analysis process, consisting of risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and natural variability are always present in this process. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate some tools as well as discuss the management of uncertainty and variability, as it is necessary to treat them both in a reliable and transparent way to gain regulatory acceptance in decision making.

    The catalytic effects of various metals on the formation of chlorinated aromatic compounds during the heating of fly ash were investigated (paper I). Copper showed a positive catalytic effect, while cobalt, chromium and vanadium showed a catalytic effect for degradation. Knowledge of the catalytic effects may facilitate the choice and design of combustion processes to decrease emissions, but it also provides valuable information to identify and characterize the hazard.

    Exposure factors of importance in risk assessment (physiological parameters, time use factors and food consumption) were collected and evaluated (paper II). Interindividual variability was characterized by mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis and multiple percentiles, while uncertainty in these parameters was estimated with confidence intervals.

    How these statistical parameters can be applied was shown in two exposure assessments (papers III and IV). Probability bounds analysis was used as a probabilistic approach, which enables separate propagation of uncertainty and variability even in cases where the availability of data is limited. In paper III it was determined that the exposure cannot be expected to cause any negative health effects for recreational users of a public bathing place. Paper IV concluded that the uncertainty interval in the estimated exposure increased when accounting for possible changes in climate-sensitive model variables. Risk managers often need to rely on precaution and an increased uncertainty may therefore have implications for risk management decisions.

    Paper V focuses on risk management and a questionnaire was sent to employees at all Swedish County Administrative Boards working with contaminated land. It was concluded that the gender, age and work experience of the employees, as well as the funding source of the risk assessment, all have an impact on the reviewing of risk assessments. Gender was the most significant factor, and it also affected the perception of knowledge.

  • 7.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Alriksson, Stina
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Environmental decision-making within the steel industry: the role of individuals’ worries, knowledge and responsibility2012Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 8.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Augustsson, Anna
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Fagergren, Magnus
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Perception of uncertainties and quality in risk assessments by people working with risk assessments2013In: Abstracts of the 2013 Conference of the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE), the International Society of Exposure Science (ISES), and the International Society of Indoor Air Quality and Climate (ISIAQ)., 2013, Abstract Number : 3978- p.Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background About 80,000 possible contaminated sites have been identified in Sweden. Assessing the risk posed by these sites and, if necessary, remediating the soil is associated with high costs. It is thus important that these assessments are reliable. A problem with current methods is that uncertainty and variability are often not accounted for. Different individuals have different physiology and behaviour and soil composition differs at various sites which can be considered in probabilistic methods. This requires tools that are user-friendly and cost and time-efficient. Information about the perception of risk assessments, uncertainty and tools wanted by people working with risk assessments is therefore needed.

    Aims The aim of this study is to investigate whether people working with risk assessments in practice find that these assessments are of sufficient quality, whether it is important to consider uncertainty and variability and which tools they may need to be able to consider these questions.

    Methods A questionnaire was sent to people working with the risk assessment of contaminated sites at government authorities and consultancies in Sweden. Results The data collected suggest that the majority of respondents find that risk assessment quality in general would need to be improved. Important factors to achieve this include a greater knowledge of the individuals involved in risk assessments, more financial resources, greater knowledge in form of new research and more time. The respondents also find it very important to characterize both uncertainty and variability, and to do this several respondents want more tools such as literature and databases with information about critical exposure factors and manuals.

    Conclusions

    According to personnel involved in the risk assessment of contaminated sites, the quality of the assessment should be enhanced and different tools would be useful to facilitate the characterization of uncertainty and variability.

  • 9.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Augustsson, Anna
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Nyholm, Sofia
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Consumption of vegetables and risk perception at contaminated glass works sites in Sweden2013In: Abstracts of the 2013 Conference of the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE), the International Society of Exposure Science (ISES), and the International Society of Indoor Air Quality and Climate (ISIAQ)., 2013, Abstract Number: 3980- p.Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background Glass has been produced since the 18th century in Kalmar and Kronoberg counties in an area called the Kingdom of Crystal. The production of glass has been associated with high levels of heavy metals in the soil. The most critical exposure pathways for metals are oral intake of soil, consumption of water and home-produced vegetables. The consumption of home-produced vegetables in particular is a highly site-specific exposure pathway and is therefore of interest to investigate in this geographic area.

    Aims The study aims to investigate to what extent home-produced vegetables are consumed by people living near glass work industries as well as their perception of environmental and health risks and the authorities’ risk communication.

    Methods A questionnaire including questions about personal factors, consumption of vegetables and fruit as well as the perception of risks and risk communication was sent to 300 randomly selected individuals living in areas close to glass works. Results A majority of those questioned, 87%, consume vegetables or fruit from their own garden sometime during the year and more than half of the respondents eat these food items on a regular basis or several times a year. Just over 40% are concerned about that the fruit or vegetables from their own garden may be contaminated with pollutants from the glass works, but an even greater number are concerned that pollution from glass works will affect their health or the environment in general. More than half of the respondents would like to have more information about environmental and health risks.

    Conclusions

    Home-produced vegetables are frequently consumed in areas around glass work industries. Many residents are at the same time concerned and request more information about possible risks. Site-specific studies including quantities and types of vegetables ingested as well as contamination levels are needed to investigate if the exposure is actually of concern.

  • 10.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Augustsson, Anna
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Nyholm, Sofia
    Public Perception of Risks Associated with Contaminated Glassworks sites in South-Eastern Sweden2014Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 11.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Bergbäck, Bo
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Öberg, Tomas
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Exponeringsfaktorer vid riskbedömning2008Report (Other academic)
  • 12.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Bergbäck, Bo
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Öberg, Tomas
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Exponeringsfaktorer vid riskbedömning: Inventering av dataunderlag2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Exposure is defined as the contact between a chemical, physical or biological agent and the outer boundary of an organism. Human exposure to chemicals in the environment is controlled not only by the occurrence of the pollutant, but also by behavior, physiological characteristics and different external factors. The quantifiable statistics used to describe this information are called The U.S. of such data, but similar attempts have also been made in Europe. However, human behavior, physiological characteristics and environmental factors differ between countries. It is therefore of value to also compile country-specific data for Sweden. A compilation could contribute towards the standardization of risk assessments.

    The exposure factors presented here cover the above mentioned areas and a substantial portion of them are similar to those covered by the international compilations. The selection and presentation is, however, to a large extent determined by the availability of data. In practice this means that for some factors we lack data on variability (natural variation) and uncertainty. These limitations in the available data are particularly pronounced with regard to the consumption of tap water and homegrown vegetables, and time-use patterns.

     However, there is a substantial amount of data available for physiological characteristics like body weight and skin surface area as well as for the general food consumption. These exposure factors have been characterized by statistical parameters like the mean, standard deviation, kurtosis, and skewness. Estimated uncertainty intervals are also given for these parameters. Percentiles are useful alternatives to present variability and these estimates are also presented together with the accompanying uncertainty intervals.

    Other exposure factors that are included in this report are; the age distribution of the population, moving patterns, residential building characteristics, contact with soil and dust, and soil properties. Apart from the tabulated values, references are also given to the primary data sources to facilitate for anyone interested to make more in-depth evaluations.

    The data collected is compared to the parameter settings suggested in the draft version of the Swedish exposure model for estimating guideline values. This comparison shows that the values selected sometimes correspond to a central or best estimate, often a conservative estimate, and sometimes a very conservative estimate. It is not possible from this comparison to draw firm conclusions regarding the impact on the final risk assessment or risk management decisions.

    The authors hope that this compilation of data on exposure factors will facilitate and accelerate the transition to risk assessment methods that permit evaluation and quantitative estimates of variability and uncertainty.

  • 13.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Fagerberg, Maria
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Parents’ risk perception of toxic chemicals in children’s products at daycare centers2015In: Presented at: Sociology of Risk and Uncertainty Research Networks (ESA) mid-term conference, Risk, Uncertainty and Transition. 8-10 April 2015, Stuttgart, 2015Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 14.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Henningsson, Marianne
    University of Kalmar, School of Human Sciences.
    Peltola, Pasi
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Öberg, Tomas
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Exposure to contaminated sediments during recreational activities at a public bathing place2009In: Journal of Hazardous Materials, ISSN 0304-3894, E-ISSN 1873-3336, Vol. 171, no 1-3, 200-207 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    More and more time is spent on recreational activities, but few risk assessments focus specifically on these situations and exposure factor data are often scarce. To assess exposure to contaminants at a public bathing place in an urban environment, we have compiled literature data, conducted observation studies, and analyzed water and sediment samples. The levels of anthropogenic contaminants are high in urban environments and traffic frequently plays an important role. In this study, to characterize variability and uncertainty, the deterministic exposure calculations for metal pollutants were supplemented by a probability bounds analysis for the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). The results from these calculations show that oral intake is the major exposure route for metals, while skin absorption, with present assumptions, is more important for the PAH. The presently measured levels of contaminants, at this public bathing place, cannot be anticipated to cause any significant adverse influence on public health.

  • 15.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Henningsson, Marianne
    University of Kalmar, School of Human Sciences.
    Peltola, Pasi
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Öberg, Tomas
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Exposure to contaminated sediments during recreational activities at a public bathing place2009In: Presentation vid SRA Europe annual meeting i Karlstad, 28 juni-1 juli 2009., 2009Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 16.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Ljunggren, Lill
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Öberg, Tomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Gender differences in risk management of contaminated land at a Swedish authority2014In: Journal of Risk Research, ISSN 1366-9877, E-ISSN 1466-4461, Vol. 17, no 3, 353-365 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Any risk analysis process leading to the remediation of contaminated land will be affected by individual judgements. Many contaminated land risk assessments in Sweden are reviewed by the County Administrative Board (CAB), a regional government authority. The cost for risk assessments and eventually remediation is funded by whichever operator is legally responsible; however, when the responsible party is unknown, the cost can be met by government grants. A questionnaire was sent to all employees working with contaminated land at each of Sweden’s CABs to investigate whether gender, age and work experience, as well as funding source, affect the reviewing of risk assessments, and the employees’ perception of knowledge gained from the Sustainable Remediation (Hållbar Sanering) research programme. It was found that gender was the most significant factor, but also age and experience of the employees influenced the respondent’s answers. The reviews of risk assessments also varied depending on funding source.

  • 17.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Samuelsson, Lill
    Öberg, Tomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Variability between individuals when reviewing environmental risk assessments at a public authority2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 18.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Öberg, Tomas
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Undersökning och riskbedömning av Trekantens badplats - Riskkarakterisering2008Report (Other academic)
  • 19.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Öberg, Tomas
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Undersökning och riskbedömning av Trekantens badplats: Riskkarakterisering2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Trekanten är en av Stockholms mer förorenade sjöar. Sedimenten i sjöns djupare delar innehåller höga halter tungmetaller och polycykliska aromatiska kolväten (PAH). Frågan om det kan vara hälsofarligt att komma i kontakt med sedimenten har uppkommit och oron har främst gällt bad vid badplatsen. Det har därför funnits skäl för att närmare utreda föroreningshalterna i anslutning till badplatsen och fastställa om någon hälsofara kan förekomma vid bad.

    I föreliggande rapport redovisas de exponeringsberäkningar och den riskbedömning som har gjorts utifrån de undersökningar som genomfördes under sommaren 2006 och 2007. Undersökningarna har omfattat dels en studie av badvanor, dels provtagning och analys av föroreningar i sediment och ytvatten. Exponeringsberäkningarna baseras även på sammanställningar av modeller och exponeringsfaktorer från den vetenskapliga litteraturen liksom svenska undersökningar. Ett informationsutbyte har även skett med tjänstemän vid det amerikanska naturvårdsverket (U.S. EPA).

    Undersökningarna har visat att föroreningshalterna i sand vid badplatsen och i ytvatten är låga. Halterna av PAH och metaller i sanden var lägre än de generella riktvärdena för förorenad mark som avser känslig markanvändning. Halterna av PAH och metaller (med undantag för krom) i ytvatten var lägre än normerna för dricksvatten.

     Exponeringsberäkningarna har genomförts separat för barn och vuxna. Huvudsakligen avser beräkningarna punktskattningar, dels en bästa skattning, dels en skattning av rimlig maximal exponering. För PAH-föreningar har utvärderingen även kompletterats med en sannolikhetsberäkning för att beskriva variabilitet och osäkerheter i dataunderlaget. Den beräknade exponeringen är i de flesta fall under de toxikologiska referensvärden som har använts.

    Slutsatsen från de genomförda undersökningarna är att exponeringen för PAH och metaller vid bad i sjön Trekanten, vid nu uppmätta halter, inte kan förutses medföra någon ogynnsam påverkan av betydelse för befolkningens hälsa.

  • 20.
    Filipsson, Monika
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Öberg, Tomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Bergbäck, Bo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Variability and uncertainty in Swedish exposure factors for use in quantitative exposure assessments2011In: Risk Analysis, ISSN 0272-4332, E-ISSN 1539-6924, Vol. 31, no 1, 108-119 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Information of exposure factors used in quantitative risk assessments has previously been compiled and reported for U.S. and European populations. However, due to the advancement of science and knowledge, these reports are in continuous need of updating with new data. Equally important is the change over time of many exposure factors related to both physiological characteristics and human behavior. Body weight, skin surface, time use, and dietary habits are some of the most obvious examples covered here. A wealth of data is available from literature not primarily gathered for the purpose of risk assessment. Here we review a number of key exposure factors and compare these factors between northern Europe—here represented by Sweden—and the United States. Many previous compilations of exposure factor data focus on interindividual variability and variability between sexes and age groups, while uncertainty is mainly dealt with in a qualitative way. In this article variability is assessed along with uncertainty. As estimates of central tendency and interindividual variability, mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, and multiple percentiles were calculated, while uncertainty was characterized using 95% confidence intervals for these parameters. The presented statistics are appropriate for use in deterministic analyses using point estimates for each input parameter as well as in probabilistic assessments.

  • 21.
    Sahlin, Ullrika
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Filipsson, Monika
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Öberg, Tomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    A risk assessment perspective of current practice in characterizing uncertainties in QSAR regression predictions2011In: Molecular Informatics, ISSN 1868-1751, Vol. 30, no 6-7, 551-564 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The European REACH legislation accepts the use of non-testing methods, such as QSARs, to inform chemical risk assessment. In this paper, we aim to initiate a discussion on the characterization of predictive uncertainty from QSAR regressions. For the purpose of decision making, we discuss applications from the perspective of applying QSARs to support probabilistic risk assessment. Predictive uncertainty is characterized by a wide variety of methods, ranging from pure expert judgement based on variability in experimental data, through data-driven statistical inference, to the use of probabilistic QSAR models. Model uncertainty is dealt with by assessing confidence in predictions and by building consensus models. The characterization of predictive uncertainty would benefit from a probabilistic formulation of QSAR models (e.g. generalized linear models, conditional density estimators or Bayesian models). This would allow predictive uncertainty to be quantified as probability distributions, such as Bayesian predictive posteriors, and likelihood-based methods to address model uncertainty. QSAR regression models with point estimates as output may be turned into a probabilistic framework without any loss of validity from a chemical point of view. A QSAR model for use in probabilistic risk assessment needs to be validated for its ability to make reliable predictions and to quantify associated uncertainty.

  • 22.
    Sahlin, Ullrika
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Filipsson, Monika
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Öberg, Tomas
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences.
    Characterization of variability and uncertainty from QSARs for probabilistic risk assessments within REACH2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 23.
    Uddh Söderberg, Terese
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Augustsson, Anna
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Filipsson, Monika
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Åström, Mats E.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Bergbäck, Bo
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Hur kan boende i glasriket exponeras för metaller?: Studier över föroreningsspridning och exponering vid Miljöriskgruppen på LNU2016Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 24.
    Uddh Söderberg, Terese
    et al.
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Augustsson, Anna
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Hogmalm, Johan
    Univ Gothenburg.
    Filipsson, Monika
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    The variability in bioconcentration factors and the importance of bioconcentration factors in probabilistic risk assessments2015In: The Future of Risk Analysis in the Nordic Countries: Lund, Sweden, 16-17 November 2015, 2015Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) express contaminant concentration in edible plants as a function of the concentration in soil. Routine risk assessments rarely include site-specific analyses of contaminants in vegetables. Instead a common procedure is to use generic BCFs which are uncertain for several reasons. There is a natural variability in metal uptake in plants. The uptake varies between crops, and depends largely on both geochemical and hydrological conditions of the soil. Despite this many risk assessments in practice use BCFs, without taking into account the influence of geochemical factors.

    A study at the Linnaeus University aimed to quantify the variability in BCFs and to evaluate the implication of this variability for human exposure assessments. Potatoes and lettuce with corresponding soil samples were collected from contaminated glasswork sites and analyzed for cadmium and lead.

    The results indicated that the variability in BCF values was greater than indicated by previous studies (having a larger possible min–max span). The importance of this variability in exposure assessments was, however, most evident at low soil metal concentrations. At high concentrations, BCFs were lower and the variability in calculated exposure was mainly dependent on the soil contamination level. Although the conclusion is that the BCFs is of relatively little importance compared to the concentration in soil, the BCFs is still of equal or greater importance than the other exposure factors included in the calculation of exposure via vegetable consumption. The lower BCFs at high contamination levels also highlight the importance of selecting BCFs that are characterized for relevant contamination levels.

    Much of the variability described in this study may, however, reflect the results of a BCF characterization approach that is uncertain. Thus, BCF characterizations using more precise methods should be prioritized in future studies.

  • 25.
    Öberg, Tomas
    et al.
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Bergbäck, Bo
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Filipsson, Monika
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Catalytic effects by metal oxides on the formation and degradation of chlorinated aromatic compounds in fly ash.2008In: Chemosphere, ISSN 0045-6535, Vol. 71, no 6, 1135-43 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Polychlorinated benzenes, dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD), and dibenzofurans (PCDF) may be formed below the combustion temperature in fly ash from municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWI). Copper catalyzes this formation, possibly by the Deacon reaction. Many other elements are also Deacon catalysts or promoters, and here we report results from a statistically designed experiment with 15 metal oxides added to fly ash and heated at 300 degrees C for 2h in an air atmosphere. A resolution IV fractional factorial design with four replicates was completed in 36 runs with the oxides of magnesium, yttrium, titanium, vanadium, niobium, chromium, molybdenum, tungsten, manganese, iron, cobalt, nickel, copper, zinc, and tin. All samples were analyzed for chlorinated benzenes and the results were evaluated by analysis of variance. The addition of copper significantly increased the amounts of the chlorinated benzenes, while cobalt, chromium and vanadium decreased the net formation. The oxides of zinc and iron seemed to have a slightly positive and negative effect respectively. The findings in this study seem to corroborate our previously reported results regarding the different catalytic effects of copper and chromium, and lack of a significant effect by nickel. Besides chromium, it also identifies cobalt and vanadium as potent catalysts for oxidative degradation of the chlorinated aromatic compounds found in MSWI fly ash.

  • 26.
    Öberg, Tomas
    et al.
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Filipsson, Monika
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Bergbäck, Bo
    University of Kalmar, School of Pure and Applied Natural Sciences.
    Exposure factors: How to characterize the data?2007In: Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, San Antonio, Texas, 9-12 december 2007, 2007Conference paper (Other academic)
1 - 26 of 26
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