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Kaldo, Viktor, ProfessorORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-6443-5279
Publications (10 of 142) Show all publications
Larsson, A. C., Jernelov, S., Kaldo, V., Blom, K. & Weineland, S. (2026). Conceptualizing Acceptance and Knowledge as Process Variables in Internet-Delivered and Therapist-Supported Cognitive Behavioral Therapy and Acceptance and Commitment Therapy in Primary Care for Insomnia: Pilot Feasibility and Process-Oriented Randomized Controlled Trial. JMIR Formative Research, 10, Article ID e81285.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Conceptualizing Acceptance and Knowledge as Process Variables in Internet-Delivered and Therapist-Supported Cognitive Behavioral Therapy and Acceptance and Commitment Therapy in Primary Care for Insomnia: Pilot Feasibility and Process-Oriented Randomized Controlled Trial
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2026 (English)In: JMIR Formative Research, E-ISSN 2561-326X, Vol. 10, article id e81285Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Internet-based interventions for insomnia show promise, but understanding the process variables, such as knowledge acquisition and psychological acceptance, is crucial for enhancing digital adherence and clinical effectiveness.

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility, adherence, and preliminary clinical signals of 2 therapist-assisted interventions-internet-delivered cognitive behavioral therapy (iCBT) and internet-delivered acceptance and commitment therapy (iACT)-for insomnia in a primary care setting.

Methods: This was a pilot randomized controlled trial. Adults seeking help for insomnia (n=18) were recruited via primary care and randomized to either a 5-module iCBT or iACT program delivered via a secure digital platform with weekly therapist feedback. Blinding of participants and therapists was not possible due to the nature of the interventions. Primary outcomes included the Insomnia Severity Index; secondary outcomes included the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire, 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder, and WHO Disability Assessment Schedule. A novel sleep knowledge test was used as a process variable. The data were analyzed using split-plot analyses of variance (intention-to-treat or last observation carried forward and complete case analysis) and nonparametric Friedman and Kruskal-Wallis tests.

Results: A total of 18 participants were randomized (iCBT: n=9; iACT: n=9). High attrition was observed, with only 33.3% (n=3) of iCBT and 55.6% (n=5) of iACT participants completing all modules. The iACT group demonstrated a significant within-group reduction in insomnia severity (P=.01, Friedman test), whereas iCBT results were nonsignificant (P=.10, Friedman test). No significant between-group differences were found for any clinical or process variables. Participants rated both treatments as credible (Credibility/Expectancy Questionnaire scores remained stable), though qualitative feedback indicated a need for more flexible, less burdensome content.

Conclusions: This pilot study demonstrates that while internet-delivered insomnia treatments are feasible and credible in primary care, high attrition remains a significant barrier. Preliminary signals suggest that iACT may be a viable alternative to iCBT, potentially offering better adherence. Larger, fully powered pilot randomized controlled trials (estimated N=404) with refined recruitment and automated retention strategies are required to determine definitive comparative efficacy and the mediating role of sleep knowledge and acceptance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
JMIR Publications, 2026
Keywords
acceptance, acceptance and commitment therapy, internet-delivered acceptance and commitment therapy, iact, internet-delivered cognitive behavioral therapy, icbt, insomnia, internet intervention, knowledge, primary care
National Category
Applied Psychology
Research subject
Social Sciences, Psychology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-148783 (URN)10.2196/81285 (DOI)001815453500009 ()42166752 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105042474209 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-07-20 Created: 2026-07-20 Last updated: 2026-08-11Bibliographically approved
Berglund, F., Eklund, R., Boelen, P. A., Hven, E., Ciardella, L., Rugfelt, Y., . . . Sveen, J. (2026). Feasibility, acceptability and potential effects of internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy for prolonged grief. Internet Interventions, 45, Article ID 100963.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Feasibility, acceptability and potential effects of internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy for prolonged grief
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2026 (English)In: Internet Interventions, ISSN 2214-7829, Vol. 45, article id 100963Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The death of a loved one is associated with an increased risk of developing severe mental health complications such as prolonged grief disorder (PGD), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Research supports the efficacy of cognitive-behavioural therapies (CBT), delivered online or face-to-face, in treating post-loss mental health problems. However, evidence-based treatments for bereaved adults remain scarce within the Swedish healthcare system. The main aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of grief-focused internet-delivered CBT (ICBT) for PGD in Swedish bereaved adults, using an uncontrolled multiple-methods design. A secondary aim was to assess the potential effect on symptoms of PGD, PTSD and depression. Fourteen participants who met criteria for probable PGD were enrolled in the study and received access to the online treatment for eight weeks. Ten participants completed post-treatment interviews and self-report questionnaires about their experiences of the treatment. Self-reported symptom-levels of PGD, PTSD and depression were assessed at baseline, mid-, posttreatment and at four-month follow-up. Overall, the grief-focused ICBT was perceived as helpful and emotionally engaging. Most participants reported satisfaction with the intervention. Reductions were observed in symptoms of PGD, PTSD and depression, although these findings should be interpreted as preliminary due to the small sample size and limited statistical power. Overall, the results suggest that grief-focused ICBT is a feasible and acceptable treatment for bereaved adults. A fully powered randomised controlled trial is warranted to establish the efficacy of the treatment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2026
Keywords
prolonged grief, online treatment, bereavement, cognitive behavioural therapy
National Category
Psychiatry
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-148573 (URN)10.1016/j.invent.2026.100963 (DOI)001801516000001 ()42339008 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105041784344 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-07-07 Created: 2026-07-07 Last updated: 2026-07-23Bibliographically approved
Bengtsson, D., Sahlin, H., Kaldo, V. & Falkenström, F. (2026). Feasibility study on a digital version of Good Psychiatric Management delivered in routine psychiatric care. Internet Interventions, 44, Article ID 100937.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Feasibility study on a digital version of Good Psychiatric Management delivered in routine psychiatric care
2026 (English)In: Internet Interventions, ISSN 2214-7829, Vol. 44, article id 100937Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Scalable, low-threshold interventions for personality disorders and personality difficulties (ICD-11) remain limited. We developed GPM-I, a guided digital self-help adaptation of Good Psychiatric Management, to deliver structured psychoeducation and support early change efforts.

Methods: We conducted a naturalistic feasibility study in routine psychiatric care in Stockholm, Sweden. Feasibility outcomes included engagement and standard program completion (Modules 1-2) and optional advanced module uptake (Modules 3-6). Acceptability was assessed with the Client Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ-8) and negative effects with the Negative Effects Questionnaire (NEQ). Weekly distress (CORE-10) was analyzed using linear mixed-effects models.

Results: Of 131 patients offered access, 78 (59.5%) initiated the program by completing Module 1 (engagement threshold). Participants were 71.8% women; mean age was 35.2 years. Participants were categorized as having personality disorder (n = 18), personality difficulties (n = 22), or other diagnoses (n = 38). Among initiators, standard program completion (Modules 1-2) was observed in 40/78 participants (51.3%), and 13/78 (16.7%) completed all available modules (Modules 1-6). CSQ-8 respondents (28/78, 35.9%) reported moderate satisfaction, with 85.7% rating overall satisfaction in the two highest categories, but completion of CSQ-8 and NEQ was low. Negative effects were reported by 25/27 NEQ respondents (92.6%), most often increased stress/ pressure or emotional strain. CORE-10 decreased significantly over time with a small effect size.

Conclusion: GPM-I showed moderate engagement and moderate acceptability among respondents, alongside generally mild-to-moderate negative effects. Findings support continued refinement of the procedures and can inform the design of a controlled trial.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2026
Keywords
good psychiatric management, personality disorders, personality difficulties, icd-11, digital intervention, guided self-help, feasibility, acceptability, psychiatric outpatient care, negative effects
National Category
Psychiatry
Research subject
Natural Science, Medicine
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-145885 (URN)10.1016/j.invent.2026.100937 (DOI)001730898600001 ()41953232 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105033833656 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-04-14 Created: 2026-04-14 Last updated: 2026-05-18Bibliographically approved
Bäckman, J., Kravchenko, O., Halvorsen, M., de Schipper, E., Ivanova, E., Kaldo, V., . . . Nordic OCD and Related Disorders Consortium (NORDiC), . (2026). Genome-Wide Association Study of Symptom Change Following Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Common Mental Disorders. American Journal of Medical Genetics Part B: Neuropsychiatric Genetics, 201(6), 396-405
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Genome-Wide Association Study of Symptom Change Following Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Common Mental Disorders
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2026 (English)In: American Journal of Medical Genetics Part B: Neuropsychiatric Genetics, ISSN 1552-4841, E-ISSN 1552-485X, Vol. 201, no 6, p. 396-405Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) is a well-established, evidence-based treatment for common mental disorders such as depression, anxiety disorders, and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). However, treatment outcomes vary widely, and a substantial proportion of patients do not achieve sufficient improvement. Robust predictors of individual differences in symptom change are currently lacking. Genetic differences have been suggested to play a role, but existing evidence is inconclusive. This study investigated the extent to which common genetic variants-single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)-contribute to variability in symptom change. The sample was derived from the MULTI-PSYCH and NORDiC cohorts, comprising 3113 adults and children treated with CBT for depression, panic disorder, social anxiety disorder, or OCD. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of symptom change following CBT and estimated the proportion of variance attributed to SNPs. Secondary analyses included GWAS and SNP-based heritability estimation of additional clinically relevant outcomes: pre- and post-treatment symptom severity and remission status. No variants reached genome-wide significance. We estimated SNP-based heritability of symptom change at h2SNP = 0.221 (SE = 0.123. These results suggest that common genetic variation may contribute modestly to treatment outcomes. Much larger samples would be required to obtain more precise estimates and to detect genome-wide significant loci.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2026
Keywords
anxiety, cognitive behavioral therapy, depression, genome-wide association study, obsessive-compulsive disorder, symptom change, treatment outcome
National Category
Psychiatry
Research subject
Health and Caring Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-145623 (URN)10.1002/ajmg.b.70015 (DOI)001709481300001 ()41804033 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105032766878 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-03-23 Created: 2026-03-23 Last updated: 2026-08-10Bibliographically approved
Weineland, S., Tillgren, H. T., Blom, K., Jernelov, S., Johansson, R., Andersson, G. & Kaldo, V. (2026). Integrating guided Internet-based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for insomnia into general practice: a multi primary health care center study. Cognitive Behaviour Therapy, 55(3), 445-465
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Integrating guided Internet-based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for insomnia into general practice: a multi primary health care center study
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2026 (English)In: Cognitive Behaviour Therapy, ISSN 1650-6073, E-ISSN 1651-2316, Vol. 55, no 3, p. 445-465Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Insomnia is prevalent, emphasizing the need for effective and sustainable treatments. While short-term use of sleep medication is recommended, long-term use remains common, underscoring the necessity for psychological treatments like Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Insomnia (CBT-I) in clinical practice. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of guided Internet-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for insomnia (ICBT-I) when integrated into general practice. Participants (n = 177) were recruited from 33 primary health care centers (PCCs) and enrolled in an eight-week guided ICBT-I program. Eligible participants were at least 18 years old and reported sleep problems significantly affecting their daily lives. Significant reductions in insomnia were observed, with large improvements in sleep disturbances. ISI scores decreased significantly from pre- to post-treatment (β = 9.368, p < .001, Hedges’ g = 1.40). Depression (β = 5.496, g = 0.68) and anxiety (β = 3.982, g = 0.56) also showed moderate improvements (p < .001). All sleep diary measures improved significantly (p < .001), and sleep medication use dropped from 48.6% at pretreatment to 17.5% at posttreatment (p < .001). These findings suggest that guided ICBT-I in primary care effectively reduces insomnia and improves mental health, with outcomes comparable to specialized care.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2026
Keywords
cognitive behaviour therapy, Insomnia, internet-based intervention, primary care
National Category
Psychiatry
Research subject
Social Sciences, Psychology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-140082 (URN)10.1080/16506073.2025.2514154 (DOI)001506976800001 ()40497689 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105008074328 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2025-06-24 Created: 2025-06-24 Last updated: 2026-04-07Bibliographically approved
Isacsson, N. H., Johansson, M. & Kaldo, V. (2026). Latent trait or sum score: addressing measurement challenges in the prediction of self-rated symptom outcomes in psychological treatment. Frontiers in Psychology, 17, Article ID 1654996.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Latent trait or sum score: addressing measurement challenges in the prediction of self-rated symptom outcomes in psychological treatment
2026 (English)In: Frontiers in Psychology, E-ISSN 1664-1078, Vol. 17, article id 1654996Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Objective: Reliable and accurate measurement is fundamental to scientific progress; however, the dominant measurement practices in psychology, clinical psychology, and prediction research often lack rigor. Improving measures using Rasch Measurement Theory (RMT) offers advantages by fulfilling the key psychometric properties of unidimensionality, local independence of items, ordering of response categories, and invariance. Ordinal-level sum scores can be transformed into interval-level latent trait scores, thereby improving the measurement precision. However, the impact of using psychometrically advanced questionnaires with latent trait scores, as opposed to traditional sum scores, in predictive models is still unclear. This study evaluates whether using latent trait scores as predictors and outcomes, in accordance with RMT, improves predictive performance compared to using traditional sum scores when predicting treatment outcomes during psychological treatment.

Methods: Self-rated symptom data from three different questionnaires, collected over the first 4 weeks of psychological treatment from 6,464 patients undergoing a 12-week treatment program, were used to predict post-treatment outcomes on the same questionnaires. This was done in two ways: (1) using sum scores as the questionnaires were originally developed and (2) using a reformulated, more psychometrically robust version of the questionnaires based on Rasch analysis, which was also shorter. The prediction models used were linear regression, Bayesian ridge regression, and random forest. Multiple imputations were used to address missing data, and nested cross-validation was employed for hyperparameter tuning and scoring.

Results: Latent scores calculated using the psychometrically optimized shorter version, which comprises 23% of the full scale, showed similar predictive performance compared to the sum score of the full scale. Overall, there was a statistically significant but practically negligible difference of 0.007-0.008 in the root mean squared error (RMSE) when comparing the original sum score to the latent trait scores.

Conclusion: Initial findings comparing psychometrically improved questionnaires with the original ordinal sum scores within a predictive framework indicate that using latent trait scores derived from these improvements showed the predictive performance similar to the sum score of the full scale. The small differences suggest that the improved versions remain valuable owing to their enhanced psychometric qualities and the reduction in response burden by using considerably fewer items. Further research is needed to explore the use of latent trait scores compared to ordinal sum scores in predictive research.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Frontiers Media S.A., 2026
Keywords
digital mental health, icbt, latent trait, machine learning, prediction, rasch measurement, treatment outcome
National Category
Psychology (Excluding Applied Psychology)
Research subject
Social Sciences, Psychology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-145615 (URN)10.3389/fpsyg.2026.1654996 (DOI)001712019000001 ()41835861 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105032565995 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-03-23 Created: 2026-03-23 Last updated: 2026-04-08Bibliographically approved
Huhn, V., Isacsson, N. H., Bendix, M., Kraepelien, M., Sahlin, H., Kaldo, V. & Forsell, E. (2026). Not just spontaneous remission: Time-dependent and independent effects in pre-intervention symptom reduction. Internet Interventions, 44, Article ID 100926.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Not just spontaneous remission: Time-dependent and independent effects in pre-intervention symptom reduction
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2026 (English)In: Internet Interventions, ISSN 2214-7829, Vol. 44, article id 100926Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Psychological symptoms tend to change over time, even in the absence of clinical intervention. For example, self-ratings are often higher at screening compared to start of treatment. A plausible hypothesis is that this is due to patients' self-referring when their gradually fluctuating symptoms are worse than usual. That hypothesis predicts that patients that wait longer will have had longer time to return to their average symptom level. On the other hand, other processes related to measurement reactivity, contact with a clinician, or regression towards the mean, do not predict a time-dependent relationship. Our aim was to estimate the extent of this hypothesized symptom reduction in depression, social anxiety disorder, panic disorder, health anxiety and insomnia (both total reduction and the relationship with time). The sample included adults (N = 8744) from an outpatient psychiatric clinic providing ICBT in Swedish routine care. Time-dependent effects were estimated with linear regression for both primary symptoms and secondary depressive symptoms. A simulation of symptom fluctuations was built to estimate power and further contextualize the effects. Patients improved on average from screening to the start of the intervention, but this varied substantially depending on diagnosis and questionnaire used. The waiting time weakly predicted the degree of improvement both for primary depressive symptoms and comorbid depressive symptoms. The estimate for primary depressive symptoms was sensitive to modeling choices, shrinking towards zero when modeled with fat-tailed residuals. The preponderance of "immediate" reductions in symptoms have implications for reporting standards of pretreatment-measurements, especially in single-group intervention studies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2026
Keywords
regression towards the mean, social anxiety disorder, panic disorder, depression, health anxiety, insomnia, natural course, symptom fluctuations, measurement reactivity
National Category
Psychiatry
Research subject
Health and Caring Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-145621 (URN)10.1016/j.invent.2026.100926 (DOI)001709697400001 ()41810417 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105031570289 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-03-23 Created: 2026-03-23 Last updated: 2026-04-08Bibliographically approved
Karlsson-Good, M., Hollandare, F., Hesser, H., Ostlund, B., Oden, I., Tallstrom, F., . . . Kraepelien, M. (2026). Tailored digital self-help for anxiety and depression: a randomized feasibility trial with or without guidance. Cognitive Behaviour Therapy
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Tailored digital self-help for anxiety and depression: a randomized feasibility trial with or without guidance
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2026 (English)In: Cognitive Behaviour Therapy, ISSN 1650-6073, E-ISSN 1651-2316Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Therapist-guided internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) has improved access to treatment for depression and anxiety, but scalability is limited by reliance on trained therapists. This feasibility trial evaluated a tailored digital self-help intervention for adults with depressive and anxiety symptoms, delivered with or without clinician guidance. In total, 124 participants in Sweden with at least mild depressive or anxiety symptoms were recruited through social media and randomized (1:1) to an eight-week program with (n = 63) or without (n = 61) clinician guidance. All participants completed telephone assessments before and after the intervention. The primary aim was to assess feasibility of both versions, while considering outcome advantages of guidance and reduced clinician time with self-help. Feasibility outcomes included adherence, credibility, satisfaction, and adverse events. The intervention was perceived as credible, with high satisfaction and engagement: most participants used the program weekly, and two thirds completed at least three of five modules. Outcomes were similar across groups, though participants with guidance reported higher satisfaction. Clinician time averaged 36 minutes for self-help participants and 66 minutes for those receiving guidance. Both groups showed large symptom reductions (Cohen's d = 1.05-1.10), supporting feasibility and motivating future trials comparing self-help and clinician-guided delivery.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2026
Keywords
self-guided intervention, digital intervention, depression, anxiety, cognitive behaviour therapy, feasibility trial
National Category
Applied Psychology
Research subject
Social Sciences, Psychology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-145333 (URN)10.1080/16506073.2026.2632368 (DOI)001693164500001 ()41701610 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105030492168 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-03-02 Created: 2026-03-02 Last updated: 2026-03-02
Pahlsson-Notini, A., Salomonsson, S., Lindsater, E., Arvas, S., Forsbeck Olsson, U., Norbeck, O., . . . Martinsson, L. (2026). Telepsychiatry for mental health triage: A mixed-methods pilot study via a regional health app in Sweden. Digital Health, 12, Article ID 20552076261429684.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Telepsychiatry for mental health triage: A mixed-methods pilot study via a regional health app in Sweden
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2026 (English)In: Digital Health, E-ISSN 2055-2076, Vol. 12, article id 20552076261429684Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Telepsychiatry is increasingly used for mental health triage, but real-world implementation remains underreported, and barriers include technical reliability, patient trust, privacy and coordination across levels of care. Objective To describe and evaluate an app- and video-based triage service, Immediate Psychiatry (IP), implemented in Region Stockholm, Sweden, focusing on service use, patient characteristics, acceptability, feasibility and team experiences. Methods Adults (>= 18) registered with participating primary care centres accessed IP via the regional health app, completed a digital brief screening questionnaire, and had a 45-min video consultation with a mental health professional. A mixed-methods design was employed combining medical-record abstractions, a patient-satisfaction survey, interviews with the IP team and a clinician acceptability questionnaire administered to primary care clinicians. Quantitative data were analysed descriptively; qualitative data underwent content analysis. Results A total of 172 participants were included, predominantly presenting with stress-related, depressive and anxiety disorders. High patient satisfaction was reported for IP, particularly in terms of ease of contact, patient involvement and respectful treatment. The IP team described that the triage process was challenging yet meaningful, relying heavily on an interprofessional team with strong clinical expertise and a person-centred approach. Improved integration with regular care could further enhance the service. The response rate among primary care clinicians was low, with responses indicating moderate acceptability. Conclusions Telepsychiatry for triage delivered through a regional app was feasible, acceptable and may improve access to timely assessments. The findings also highlight important organizational and implementation challenges, particularly regarding integration with primary care, which should be addressed alongside evaluations of long-term outcomes, healthcare use and costs and policy barriers in future studies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2026
Keywords
telepsychiatry, digital triage, mental health services, implementation, patient experience, feasibility study
National Category
Psychiatry
Research subject
Health and Caring Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-145619 (URN)10.1177/20552076261429684 (DOI)001710253800001 ()41836614 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105032463777 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-03-23 Created: 2026-03-23 Last updated: 2026-04-08Bibliographically approved
Forsell, E., Mattsson, S., Hentati Isacsson, N. & Kaldo, V. (2025). Accuracy of Therapists' Predictions of Outcome in Internet-Delivered Cognitive Behavior Therapy for Depression and Anxiety in Routine Psychiatric Care. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 93(3), 176-190
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Accuracy of Therapists' Predictions of Outcome in Internet-Delivered Cognitive Behavior Therapy for Depression and Anxiety in Routine Psychiatric Care
2025 (English)In: Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, ISSN 0022-006X, E-ISSN 1939-2117, Vol. 93, no 3, p. 176-190Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Objective: Early identification of failing psychological treatments could be of high clinical value, but therapists themselves have been found to be bad at predicting who will benefit or not. Previous research has some methodological limitations, and therapists' predictive accuracy has never been examined in internet-delivered treatments. Method: Therapists providing internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for depression, social anxiety disorder, and panic disorder in routine psychiatric care made outcome predictions for 897 patients during the fourth week of treatment. Therapists' accuracies were also compared to the accuracy of a simple statistical model and benchmarks for clinically acceptable/useful levels of accuracy from previous research. Results: Therapists were more accurate than chance, but their balanced accuracy was on average nine percentage points lower than the balanced accuracy of the statistical model (though confidence intervals often overlapped) and only in one case did the predictions reach the clinical acceptance and utility benchmarks. Therapists could predict on average 16% of the variance in outcome. Therapists were overly optimistic, predicting positive outcomes on average twice as often as they occurred. They differed in confidence in their predictions, though this did not affect how correct they were. Conclusions: Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy-therapists can often predict treatment outcomes better than chance, but generally not as well as the statistical model, and probably not accurately enough that they would be willing to act on their predictions, or that they could be used in an adaptive treatment strategy. Our previous findings suggest that patients would benefit from statistical monitoring and prediction tools in clinical settings.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Psychological Association (APA), 2025
Keywords
monitoring treatment response, clinical outcomes, predictors of treatment response, psychological treatment, prediction of treatment failure
National Category
Psychiatry
Research subject
Social Sciences, Psychology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-137275 (URN)10.1037/ccp0000943 (DOI)001433477500001 ()40014507 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-86000098485 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2025-03-20 Created: 2025-03-20 Last updated: 2025-04-10Bibliographically approved
Projects
Internet-Based Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (iCBT) for mental health problems in primary care: can it improve population health and reduce inequalities? [2021-06474_VR]; Uppsala University
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-6443-5279

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