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Can outcomes on physical tests predict future sporting success? A retrospective study of cross-country skiers
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sport Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1976-409X
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sport Science. Linnaeus University, Linnaeus Knowledge Environments, Education in Change.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7233-5198
2024 (English)In: Scandinavian Sport Studies Forum, E-ISSN 2000-088X, Vol. 15, p. 173-198Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Sustainable development
SDG 4: Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
Abstract [en]

Talent identification aims to discover athletes with qualities that suggest potential

future success in a specific sport. To aid in this quest, physical tests are frequently

used. However, the ability of such tests to predict future sporting success remains

underexplored, especially since it is rare for test results to be retrospectively ana-

lysed to determine whether those who later became successful athletes had fa-

vourable physical test outcomes in their youth. This study aims to analyse the

relationship between physical test results from a young age and future sporting

success in the context of cross-country skiing. A cohort design with a retrospec-

tive approach was utilised. The cohort consists of Swedish cross-country skiers (n

= 193) who underwent physical tests (n = 9) before being admitted into ski high

schools between 2002 and 2006. The test results of this cohort were analysed to

explore their potential to predict future sporting success, using FIS-points, the

official ranking and point system established by the International Ski and Snow-

board Federation. Sporting success has also been analysed in relation to variables

such as ski discipline (sprint and distance), sex and the relative age effect (birth

quartile). In general, it can be concluded that the test results had either no cor-

relation or a weak correlation with future sporting success across sprint and dis-

tance disciplines in cross-country skiing. Consequently, this study questions the

value of physical tests as an instrument in talent identification processes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Malmö University , 2024. Vol. 15, p. 173-198
Keywords [en]
talent identification, physical tests, cross-country skiing, sporting success, ski high school
National Category
Sport and Fitness Sciences
Research subject
Social Sciences, Sport Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-133491OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-133491DiVA, id: diva2:1914738
Available from: 2024-11-20 Created: 2024-11-20 Last updated: 2025-05-20Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Låt de rätta komma in och må de finna vägen ut: Om idrottsutbildningar, antagningsprocesser och karriärutveckling
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Låt de rätta komma in och må de finna vägen ut: Om idrottsutbildningar, antagningsprocesser och karriärutveckling
2025 (Swedish)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The aim of this thesis is to deepen the understanding of sports schools, particularly the methods and decision-making processes underlying student admissions to these schools, as well as the significance of the schools in shaping athletic careers.

The thesis comprises four studies. The first is a scoping study that maps peer-reviewed research on sports schools. It shows that research on sports schools has expanded significantly, particularly since the 2010s, underscoring the schools’ dual role as both sites for individual development and as integral parts of elite talent systems. The second study, based on the concept of communities of practice, is a case study of admission processes at sports schools. Using six focus group interviews with school sport teachers (n = 18), the study shows how admissions take place within sport-specific communities, shaped by sports cultures and assumptions about talent. Despite the subjective nature of athlete assessments, collective engagement among teachers plays a central role in their joint decision regarding which students to admit. The third study, a retrospective cohort study, explores the use of physical tests in admission processes. Analysing test results from cross-country skiers (n = 193), the study finds no or weak correlation between admission test performance and later sporting success, raising questions about the use of such tests in talent identification processes, such as admission to sports schools. The fourth study, informed by the concept of horizons for action, is a case study based on semi-structured interviews, exploring senior-year student athletes’ (n = 10) career development. The study shows how social and cultural contexts shape career development and career decisions, such as choosing a sport, changing clubs and applying to sport schools. While all student athletes aspired to elite careers, their dreams have shifted into pragmatically rational intentions within bounded opportunities. The findings highlight the segmented nature of career horizons among student athletes and their limited awareness of alternative pathways.

Together, these studies provide new insights into the functioning of sports schools, as well as into admission processes and career development within them. They offer valuable perspectives for refining admission procedures and career guidance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Växjö: Linnaeus University Press, 2025. p. 121
Series
Linnaeus University Dissertations ; 575
Keywords
Sports schools; admission processes; career development; dual career; student athletes.
National Category
Sport and Fitness Sciences
Research subject
Social Sciences, Sport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-138537 (URN)10.15626/LUD.575.2025 (DOI)978-91-8082-308-1 (ISBN)978-91-8082-309-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-06-12, Weber, Hus K, Växjö, 13:15 (Swedish)
Opponent
Available from: 2025-05-20 Created: 2025-05-20 Last updated: 2025-05-20Bibliographically approved

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Fahlström, Per GöranAndersson, FilipStråhlman, Owe

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