Talent identification aims to discover athletes with qualities that suggest potential
future success in a specific sport. To aid in this quest, physical tests are frequently
used. However, the ability of such tests to predict future sporting success remains
underexplored, especially since it is rare for test results to be retrospectively ana-
lysed to determine whether those who later became successful athletes had fa-
vourable physical test outcomes in their youth. This study aims to analyse the
relationship between physical test results from a young age and future sporting
success in the context of cross-country skiing. A cohort design with a retrospec-
tive approach was utilised. The cohort consists of Swedish cross-country skiers (n
= 193) who underwent physical tests (n = 9) before being admitted into ski high
schools between 2002 and 2006. The test results of this cohort were analysed to
explore their potential to predict future sporting success, using FIS-points, the
official ranking and point system established by the International Ski and Snow-
board Federation. Sporting success has also been analysed in relation to variables
such as ski discipline (sprint and distance), sex and the relative age effect (birth
quartile). In general, it can be concluded that the test results had either no cor-
relation or a weak correlation with future sporting success across sprint and dis-
tance disciplines in cross-country skiing. Consequently, this study questions the
value of physical tests as an instrument in talent identification processes.