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A Copula-Augmented Nelson-Siegel Model for ESG Bond Portfolio Optimization
Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Economics and Statistics (NS).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1483-137X
Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5776-9396
University of Augsburg, Germany.
2025 (English)In: Journal of Fixed Income, ISSN 1059-8596, E-ISSN 2168-8648, Vol. 35, no 2Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article presents a novel copula-based no-arbitrage pricing framework for forecasting bond returns and optimizing bond portfolios. Extending the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with regular vine copulas for term structure dependencies, we generate step-ahead forecasts for zero-coupon bond yields, which we subsequently apply to obtain and simulate the no-arbitrage prices for both callable and non-callable fixed-coupon bonds. These simulated bond prices serve as inputs for a novel convex multiobjective portfolio optimization, incorporating key criteria such as ESG score, average return, Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), distance-to-default, transaction cost, and option-adjusted duration and convexity. Applying our methodology to a dataset of 879 corporate bonds denominated in euros from January 2016 to July 2024, we demonstrate that the suggested copula-based no-arbitrage pricing framework takes advantage of the yield curve non-linear dependence structure and offers bond portfolios that consistently outperform those portfolios based on the classical dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach and an equally weighted (EQW) benchmark in terms of higher returns and Sharpe ratios while effectively reducing tail risk.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
With Intelligence LLC , 2025. Vol. 35, no 2
National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Economy, Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-142475DOI: 10.3905/jfi.2025.1.221OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-142475DiVA, id: diva2:2013844
Available from: 2025-11-14 Created: 2025-11-14 Last updated: 2025-12-22Bibliographically approved

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Sahamkhadam, MaziarStephan, Andreas

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