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Deep Learning for Energy Market Contracts: Dynkin Game with Doubly RBSDEs
KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Technology, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5922-7758
KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
University of Ljubljana, Slovenia.
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

We formulate a Contract for Difference (CfD) with early exit options as a two-player zero-sum Dynkin game, reflecting the strategic interaction between an electricity producer and a regulatory entity. The game in corporates penalties for early termination and mean-reverting price dynamics, with the value characterized through a doubly reflected backward stochastic differential equation (DRBSDE).To compute the contract value and optimal stopping strategies, we develop a neural solver that approximates the DRBSDE solution using a sequence of neural networks trained on simulated trajectories. The method avoids discretizing the state space, supports time-dependent barriers, and scales to high-dimensional settings. We establish a convergence result and test the method on two scenarios: a benchmark symmetric game in 20 dimensions, and a CfD model with 24-dimensional electricity prices representing multiple European zones.The results demonstrate that the proposed solver accurately captures the contract’s value and optimal stopping regions, with consistent performance across dimensional settings.

Keywords [en]
Deep learning; Doubly reflected BSDEs; Contract for difference; Dynkin game.
National Category
Artificial Intelligence Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematics, Applied Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-141384DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2503.00880OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-141384DiVA, id: diva2:1994312
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2020-04697Available from: 2025-09-02 Created: 2025-09-02 Last updated: 2026-06-23

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Arharas, Ihsan

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