Recently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught
in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be
social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction
mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent-based
simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth
and population path is calibrated to Swedish data using the Swedish social policy
setup. The model is provoked into a fertility trap by increasing relative child costs
linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then
insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily
enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the
adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.
2010. Vol. 26, no 2, p. 183-205